Coronavirus

[PurplePride92]

Using your math, if 75 million people get this (where is that coming from, that seems incredibly high), but if they do, and 1 in 2,000 die, that is 37,500 deaths. Less than the die from the flu. The 1% is current because 99% of the cases in this country aren't yet reported because they feel fine and can't / won't be tested.

 

Only the hospitals can do the tests currently, and you have to be exhibiting some symptoms to get tested. So most that have it / will have it, and have mild to no symptoms, won't ever be tested.

 

That number is coming from a doctor who has some very high profile patients. He says 75-150 million people could contract the virus in the US when the dust settles. The expectation is that at least a third of the country will contract it.

[theguru]

Holy cow! Went into Kroger today to get dog food and something to cook for dinner. We just got back from Florida and I hadn’t been there in awhile. I was shocked! The shelves were empty of bleach, hand sanitizer, and rubbing alcohol. Shelves were almost empty of laundry detergent, cleaning supplies, toilet paper, and hand soaps. I have never seen it like this in my entire life. I was very surprised.

 

I am not afraid of the Corona virus, but I am concerned about my toilet paper needs. Have to admit, I stocked up on a few things. Thinking about going back to the liquor store too!

 

I went to Kroger yesterday, other than having to buy name brand toilet paper (had I needed it) my Kroger looked like it had plenty of everything thing including my laundry detergent. It was all business as usual.

 

The liquor store is a solid point, thanks for the reminder. :thumb:

[Bluegrasscard]

Son and DIL supposed to go on their deferred honeymoon cruise out of Puerto Rico in few weeks. No real good options since she is teacher and windows of vacation are limited except in summer. Royal Caribbean gives option of full refund up to 2 days before leaving. Airline (American) is offering credit toward other flights through end of the year.

 

After looking at various options I told them to hold still for now with any changes. No real good options given all the uncertainty. I also told them that if the strong measures continue or get worse the decision of what to do may be taken out of their hands anyway.

[MJAlltheWay24]

Only thing I know for sure, I would not be leaving the country right now.

[nkypete]

Holy cow! Went into Kroger today to get dog food and something to cook for dinner. We just got back from Florida and I hadn’t been there in awhile. I was shocked! The shelves were empty of bleach, hand sanitizer, and rubbing alcohol. Shelves were almost empty of laundry detergent, cleaning supplies, toilet paper, and hand soaps. Even some canned goods and cereal aisles were low. I have never seen it like this in my entire life. I was very surprised.

 

I am not afraid of the Corona virus, but I am concerned about my toilet paper needs. Have to admit, I stocked up on a few things. Thinking about going back to the liquor store too!

 

Thanks Double Deuce for the update above. Sounds like some pretty good and reasonable information.

 

So, if we run out of sanitizer, should we use bourbon?

[afi100guy]

So, if we run out of sanitizer, should we use bourbon?

 

According to this article, it needs to be 120 proof so go with Everclear to be safe.

Tito's tells customers to not use their vodka for hand sanitizer - CNN

[I gotta go to work]

Only thing I know for sure, I would not be leaving the country right now.

 

Scotland planned the first week of April. Not sure what to do about that. As things currently stand I don't believe I can get all the money back unless things get worse.

[TheDeuce]

The one case in Louisville has improved, and has been released from the hospital to finish their isolation at home.

[sweet16]

So, if we run out of sanitizer, should we use bourbon?

 

Drink it. That will make you feel better.

[TheDeuce]

So, if we run out of sanitizer, should we use bourbon?

 

Lord no....

 

Vodka.

[DragonFire]

The NCAA just made it official - the NCAA Tournament will be played without fans in the stands. Only families and essential personnel.

[nkypete]

The NCAA just made it official - the NCAA Tournament will be played without fans in the stands. Only families and essential personnel.

 

March Sadness

[BrosefStalin]

Regarding the Rogan podcast - which I thought was riveting - that featured infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm. Here are the takeaways...

 

This is just beginning. It will unfold for months and people don't get that. This transmits very easily through the air. Data shows it is infectious before you get sick, in fact, highly infectious. Best guess among experts with limited data, 10-15x worse in terms of fatalities and illnesses than the worst season flu we've ever seen. In terms of numbers, 96 million cases and over 480,000 deaths over next 3-7 months. THIS IS NOT TO BE TAKEN LIGHTLY. Three weeks ago Italy was living life just fine, now the entire county is shut down and people are dying at an alarming rate.

 

To put this in modern terms, a physician in Milan Italy sent an email out that said they're deciding who they have to let die, staff isn't being screened because they need all hands on decks, everyone is dedicated to COVID patients, even if positive with symptoms, they have to work. Also, there is an alarming number of cases in the 40 something age range. We need to stop thinking this is an old persons disease. This is unfolding in Wuhan, in Italy and even here in Seattle, and it will continue to unfold throughout the world.

 

Yes, the majority that have died have been older and age is the primary risk factor, but there are other factors. For ex, smoking in China. The challenge we have is that's really only the Chinese data. Experts are worried that other risk factors will emerge in other parts of the world. For example, obesity in the US. It's just like smoking in how it can seriously effect health and create life threatening conditions. In the US, over 40% of citizens are obese. There is concern we're going to see very serious life threatening cases in the US because of a different set of risk factors.

 

Incubation period is FOUR days. And the virus effects people differently. For ex. an Uber driver could be sick, but not know it, and infect a passenger. That Uber drive could eventually show symptoms, recover, and be fine, while the passenger dies.

We have to get information out to the public, there is so much misinformation.

we have to get information out to the public. so much misinformation. This is going to be a long term thing. We're going to have 3-6 months that will be like this. This has unfolded just as we predicted. On 1/20, we said this would happen and no one paid attention. We predicted exactly when it would pop in the US, we were told we were wrong. When people are confronted with the actual information, people finally realize how serious this is and the need to be prepared.

 

Studies were conducted in Germany this week that followed a group of nine people exposed. In the first hours, when symptoms showed, we went in and sample their throats, blood, stool, urine, etc and found shockingly they had incredibly high levels of virus, almost 10,000 times as much as SARS. This is why we're concerned. People in public spaces are exposed, especially those over 55 with underlying health problems. Stay away from large public spaces.

 

As far as public health, we're not going to have a vaccine soon. We could close schools, but does that do more harm than good?

 

We aren't prepared at all. SARS/MERS were harbingers of things to come. We hear it and yet we don't get prepared. This this was predicted by many experts. 85% of all of the world's production of IV bags were made in plants in Puerto Rico. Hurricane Maria came through 18 months ago and destroyed the plants that manufactured these supplies. We've had a massive shortage of IV bags, yet we're still not prepared? Hopefully, this is a wake up call.

 

One of the things that has us most concerned as well, we've been studying for 18 months looking at critical drug shortages. There are 153 drugs people need right now when they are in severe emergency condition. 100 are generic. All are made offshore and, in large part in China and India. At this point, we already have a shortage. Now, the supply chain is down. If I came to you and said the DOD was going to outsource their munitions needs to China/India, there would be outrage. But, with this issue, we are beholden to China for these medications. It's ridiculous. Now, with the shutdown, we are at risk. Even the situation that's unfolded, its not about virus, it's about what the entire system is rigged up to be and what the virus does once it gets into it.

[TheDeuce]

"Experts" are clearly all over the place on this topic. I'd be careful on who/what you choose to believe.

[hoops5]

University of Kentucky remains open, but courses will be online March 23 through April 6.