Coronavirus

[Voice of Reason]

They are testing but only tested a limited amount that they feel could be severe cases. That is why I say looking at numbers is pointless for us in our country, because we are not testing much for it. Zero idea to know how many cases there truly is, if only testing a select few.

 

That is a strong argument for the shutdown.

[Beechwoodfan]

I'm with you. No sports on TV is a big factor in our household, not to mention the stress and uncertainty associated with the virus.

 

That, and the fact that he is hard of hearing and watches the wrong TV shows.

[theguru]

That, and the fact that he is hard of hearing and watches the wrong TV shows.

 

That made me laugh out loud!

[futurecoach]

That is a strong argument for the shutdown.

 

It is and it isn’t. I get it we don’t want to over run our health system with everyone getting it at once like in Italy. At the same time we were very ill prepared, and have zero idea how bad it is right now, because of lack of testing. It may be worst than we think, it may already be at its peak, or it may just be beginning. We have no idea, because of the lack of test.

 

So what is going to happen, when more test finally are readily available. Obviously the numbers will go up because more will be tested. However, that also doesn’t mean it was getting worst. We literally have zero idea.

 

So I understand the shut down, but just because I understand it. Doesn’t mean I shouldn’t be worried about this becoming a new precedent for the future. Where we shut down for everything. Meaning things we didn’t shut down for the in the past, all of a sudden we will shut down, because now this set a precedent. Which wouldn’t be good for our country.

[JDEaston]

For those that think a shutdown may be the precedence going forward after this is over. Are you thinking about the financial impact this will have on all of us, the government included? I just don't see it becoming the new normal, for that reason alone.

 

Doing this when absolutely needed is and then recovering from it is a bit different than doing this when it's not actually needed. It's not something you can do over and over and expect the stay financially stable as a whole.

Edited March 18, 2020 by JDEaston

[PurplePride92]

Here is the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team report. It is a collaborative report done by doctors/scholars/scientists. It has been said it was used to by the United States to help us combat the Coronavirus/COVID-19.

 

People much smarter than myself and more educated on this manner have written some great summaries about it. I figured I would pass this on because it seems like useful information and we all get our information from different places.

 

 

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

 

Summary

 

 

“The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain specifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission.

Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.”

[00Rocket28]

I feel like we’re living in a movie right now. This is all just crazy. Ready for a return to normal life, which I’m afraid will be months away.

[Hatz]

Here is the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team report. It is a collaborative report done by doctors/scholars/scientists. It has been said it was used to by the United States to help us combat the Coronavirus/COVID-19.

 

People much smarter than myself and more educated on this manner have written some great summaries about it. I figured I would pass this on because it seems like useful information and we all get our information from different places.

 

 

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

 

Summary

 

 

“The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain specifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission.

Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.”

 

Read this report this morning. Sobering thoughts.

[PurplePride92]

Read this report this morning. Sobering thoughts.

 

Agreed.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

From the River City News out of Covington this morning:

 

 

[PepRock01]

Here is the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team report. It is a collaborative report done by doctors/scholars/scientists. It has been said it was used to by the United States to help us combat the Coronavirus/COVID-19.

 

People much smarter than myself and more educated on this manner have written some great summaries about it. I figured I would pass this on because it seems like useful information and we all get our information from different places.

 

 

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

 

Summary

 

 

“The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain specifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission.

Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.”

 

 

That is a good read for just about anyone right now.

[Pura Vida]

From the River City News out of Covington this morning:

 

 

 

I saw this too and wonder how it correlates to the number of tests still in process, I think that's a key missing piece of info. There's an Enquirer article today about how local folks are being tested but the tests are sent to private labs (not state) and it's taking a long time (4 days and counting) to get the results.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

Here is the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team report. It is a collaborative report done by doctors/scholars/scientists. It has been said it was used to by the United States to help us combat the Coronavirus/COVID-19.

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

A few key pieces to takeaway from this. According to the models that this team created based on their "microsimulation model" of the COVID-19 impact on the United States:

 

1) "The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic."

 

That's saying something. The 1918 H1N1 - the Spanish Flu pandemic - managed to kill about 2% of the world population. And that was in an age where people were less densely populated on the earth, and it was entirely prior to the advent of international air travel.

 

2) "In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour....we predict 81% of the GB and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic...."

 

Their model shows that 81% of the people in Great Britain and the United States will get COVID-19 of no changes are made to anything. Think about that. I think that needs to be THE argument shown to people who contest the prudence of the business closings and quarantine/social distancing measures.

 

3) "In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality."

 

Their model shows that 510,000 deaths would occur in Great Britain and 2,200,000 deaths would occur in the United States if no preventative measures are taken - and that doesn't even take into account any additional problems/deaths caused by overwhelmed and over-populated hospitals. I keep seeing people on social media try to argue about everything going on right now by comparing COVID-19 with the H1N1 flu because of the fact that there IS a high number of infections/deaths due to H1N1 every year. But here is a little graph I put together based on the CDC's latest and greatest on H1N1 compared to this study. I think it speaks for itself.

 

 

[John Anthony]

A 2 year old in Columbus has tested positive.

[Randy Parker]

A 2 year old in Columbus has tested positive.

 

Ugh, that sucks.