Herd Immunity and Shelter-in-place policies

[coldweatherfan]

Couple years old, but informative.

 

This Economy is a Real Killer | HuffPost Life

 

After crunching the numbers, Brenner calculated that for every one percent increase in the unemployment rate (an additional 1.5 million people out of work), we can expect an additional 47,000 deaths, including 26,000 deaths from heart attacks, about 1,200 from suicide, 831 murders, and 635 deaths related to alcohol consumption. If, for example, the unemployment rate jumps from 8.1% to 9.1%, we can expect roughly an extra 1,200 people to commit suicide and another 831 people to commit murder.

 

For most people, losing their job, their life savings or pensions, or their home is traumatic, even when its through no fault of their own. Our individualistic culture leads people to blame themselves and to think of themselves as failures.

[John Anthony]

Kids or the parents of those kids? All of those things while important to kids, always have seemed to me way more important to parents. Most wont even remember who they sat next to or who the speaker was at their graduation. How many do you think still talk to their prom date after 10 years? Or who the band was that played? If your senior year was the greatest year of your life, you didn’t do much of anything as an adult.

 

I couldn’t disagree more, but to each is their own, if someone’s senior year wasn’t a significant memory that must have been a pretty dull HS experience. Yes, it’s only one chapter in a large book but it’s a significant one. Heck, a lot of this site is predicated on HS football and it’s memories. My wife shows our daughter what prom dresses looked like back then, I can still remember exact moments in football games, or watching Varsity Blues, with people who are still my lifelong friends in theater. Heck I remember Shaggy playing at prom lol. Too write all that off or dismiss it’s importance, seems depressing.

[tcjkbt]

When's the last time the economy took a dip and didn't return?

 

Oh, never?

Some think it took World War II to get us out of the Great Depression.

[rjs4470]

I couldn’t disagree more, but to each is their own, if someone’s senior year wasn’t a significant memory that must have been a pretty dull HS experience. Yes, it’s only one chapter in a large book but it’s a significant one. Heck, a lot of this site is predicated on HS football and it’s memories. My wife shows our daughter what prom dresses looked like back then, I can still remember exact moments in football games, or watching Varsity Blues, with people who are still my lifelong friends in theater. Heck I remember Shaggy playing at prom lol. Too write all that off or dismiss it’s importance, seems depressing.

 

I’m not going to disagree that high school can be full of great experiences. Mine was. But I guess i speak from a position of experience, and being around high school kids as a coach for much of my life. But it is true that much of the pomp and circumstance, and ceremonies and events are generally more cherished by the parents than the kids. I do still believe that the seniors are being robbed of a lot of fun by the shutdown, and it is truly unfortunate. But for most, this will be more memorable than most of the events you mention ever would have been.

[00Rocket28]

It’s interesting the strategy was “flatten the curve”, until the curve was flattening, now it’s shelter in place till we have a vaccine. I don’t have that option and I wouldn’t take that route if I did. Can’t live in fear over a virus that’s not killing 99.9% of the population. If it wasn’t corona trying to kill us, it’d be something else. For the immune compromised, shelter in place, I get it. But at this point no one is visiting those folks anyways so why if you’re healthy, use that as your reason for wanting stay locked in your house for a year, when you’re not seeing them regardless.

[Hellcats]

Flatten the curve strategy was really the only option. 1% of our population is 3.6 million people. Also that number is much higher (2-4%) when countries have let the virus rage. A percentage of those would be first responders and healthcare workers who have no choices, but to help and possibly die.

 

The suicide, overdose, heart attack, etc. numbers wouldn't come close to that 3 million.

 

We don't know who has an immune system compromised. Easy to say just old people, but 1 in 4 of the hospitalized patients in NYC were under 50 and some with zero preexisting conditions.

 

I did see Oxford has a vaccine coming in September and a drug called Remdesivir is in trial in Chicago and has been successful. So maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel

Edited April 17, 2020 by Hellcats

[bugatti]

It’s interesting the strategy was “flatten the curve”, until the curve was flattening, now it’s shelter in place till we have a vaccine.

If people ever took "flattening the curve" as this was going to be over by then, that was selective listening. It was an expression to hit our peak at a different metric. People do not listen, so I can see why people took it that way. I have not heard one person say shelter in place until there is a vaccine as it has been conveyed from the start we are a year to 18 months from that.

[Kentucky Windage]

It’s interesting the strategy was “flatten the curve”, until the curve was flattening, now it’s shelter in place till we have a vaccine. I don’t have that option and I wouldn’t take that route if I did. Can’t live in fear over a virus that’s not killing 99.9% of the population. If it wasn’t corona trying to kill us, it’d be something else. For the immune compromised, shelter in place, I get it. But at this point no one is visiting those folks anyways so why if you’re healthy, use that as your reason for wanting stay locked in your house for a year, when you’re not seeing them regardless.

 

Exactly. If you were immune compromised before this chances were that you had a higher sense of awareness going into this. Stay home and isolate until there is a better option for you.

 

My stance has changed from stay away from all people to life comes with risks. I step into the batter's box in a baseball game there is a chance I could get nailed by a baseball but that's the risk I take. You all can stay home if you want, I'm getting back out there. Honestly, since the beginning of this, I've been out there. I have great health, I've been responsible about how I've interacted with people, and I've been really clean about it.

 

When this opens back up, I'm going to a restaurant. I'm going to tip a waiter pretty darn good. I won't live in fear.

[bugatti]

Exactly. If you were immune compromised before this chances were that you had a higher sense of awareness going into this. Stay home and isolate until there is a better option for you.

 

My stance has changed from stay away from all people to life comes with risks. I step into the batter's box in a baseball game there is a chance I could get nailed by a baseball but that's the risk I take. You all can stay home if you want, I'm getting back out there. Honestly, since the beginning of this, I've been out there. I have great health, I've been responsible about how I've interacted with people, and I've been really clean about it.

 

When this opens back up, I'm going to a restaurant. I'm going to tip a waiter pretty darn good. I won't live in fear.

 

If it is just about me, I really do not care. I will get over it. However, what if you are asymptomatic and take this approach and infect a handful of people, hospitalizing one or two? Would you feel remotely bad or is that just part of them stepping into the batter's box?

 

That is the fundamental question with all of this. Not hating on you, btw, but that is what I struggle with in my head and at the root of what we have been trying to avoid this past month.

[Pura Vida]

I can’t help but to compare sending my kid back to school to sending them to infected nursing homes or cruise ships. If 1 gets it, they all get it. And it will happen quickly.

[Kentucky Windage]

If it is just about me, I really do not care. I will get over it. However, what if you are asymptomatic and take this approach and infect a handful of people, hospitalizing one or two? Would you feel remotely bad or is that just part of them stepping into the batter's box?

 

That is the fundamental question with all of this. Not hating on you, btw, but that is what I struggle with in my head and at the root of what we have been trying to avoid this past month.

 

If I get someone else sick, haven't they also assumed taking on a certain amount of risk as well?

 

To answer your question, yes I'd feel bad. I'm generally a sympathetic person. But the responsibility wouldn't rest solely on my shoulders.

[rjs4470]

If it is just about me, I really do not care. I will get over it. However, what if you are asymptomatic and take this approach and infect a handful of people, hospitalizing one or two? Would you feel remotely bad or is that just part of them stepping into the batter's box?

 

That is the fundamental question with all of this. Not hating on you, btw, but that is what I struggle with in my head and at the root of what we have been trying to avoid this past month.

 

This is the key point everyone who is clamoring to get back out is missing. Your healthy, with no underlying conditions? Great. And congratulations. But if you get it, and are asymptomatic, you could spread to everyone you come in contact with. It's not just about you and your health.

[Hellcats]

Let’s not forget there have been “healthy” people die from this. If we tried the reopening or the herd immunity too early, more “healthy” people would die because of the strained healthcare system.

[rjs4470]

Let’s not forget there have been “healthy” people die from this. If we tried the reopening or the herd immunity too early, more “healthy” people would die because of the strained healthcare system.

 

It's not just the people with Covid that would be dying. Because of the strain on the system, the care of others will suffer.

[TheDeuce]

It's not just about you and your health.

 

Unfortunately so many people are showing us that is exactly what it is to them.