Herd Immunity and Shelter-in-place policies

[PurplePride92]

Simply put, they were not testing for it. I do not believe for a split second that the first positive test, was the first case in KY. It’s just the first documented case.

 

At the same time that doesn’t mean it was here in 2019.

[Hellcats]

I don’t think half the population is afraid to leave their houses, Walmart suggest otherwise. I also think once the fear mongering subsides, people will feel more comfortable. We need to see where we’re at in early May.

 

My Walmart runs a 1/5> of what it normally does.

 

Of course, Walmart for food and essentials is different from going out to restaurants, nonessential shopping, and all that consumerism that is needed to bring the economy roaring back.

[Hellcats]

I have read and watched so much and I can’t even corroborate the source, but it is in my brain: with the flu you may infect 14 people, with CV you can infect 59,000.

 

I don't doubt that somebody said that, but:

 

The past flu numbers from the CDC do not back that up. Since 2010 in the US the lowest flu year was 9.3 million people and the worst was 49 million people, and that is considering 46.8% of the population gets the flu vaccine.

 

You can keep coronavirus from infecting thousands, just by staying home - Vox

 

Found it.

 

To figure out just how infectious a disease is, experts use the basic reproduction number, called the R0 (pronounced “R naught”). That refers to how many other people one sick person will infect on average in a group that doesn’t already have immunity. The higher the R0, the higher the likelihood that many people will get sick.

 

The R0 for the common flu is 1.3. So, if you get the flu, you will, on average, pass that on to 1.3 people. Montgomery calculates that if each of those 1.3 people pass it on to another 1.3 people, and that keeps on happening 10 times, then by the 10th time, 14 people will have the flu.

 

(That’s because 1.3 to the power of 10 is 13.786. He’s rounding up a bit.)

 

The coronavirus, however, is more contagious than the common flu. Experts are still trying to figure out the R0, and in any case it’s not something that’s precisely fixed, since diseases behave differently in different environments and some people (known as “super-spreaders”) are more contagious than others. But the World Health Organization says most estimates of the coronavirus’s R0 are around 2 or 2.5, while some estimates put it as high as 3.11. Montgomery uses an R0 of 3 to make his calculations.

 

“So every person passes to it three — now that doesn’t sound like much of a difference, but if each of those three pass it to three and that happens in 10 layers, I have been responsible for infecting 59,000 people,” he says.

 

(That’s because 3 to the power of ten is 59,049. He’s rounding down a bit.)

[PurplePride92]

My Walmart runs a 1/5> of what it normally does.

 

Of course, Walmart for food and essentials is different from going out to restaurants, nonessential shopping, and all that consumerism that is needed to bring the economy roaring back.

 

Folks are lying to themselves. They can open America back up tomorrow. The economy is going to suffer tremendously regardless of what we do. Might as well work to keep everyone safe so we can dig out of it in 2021.

 

Going to be interesting to see how this all plays out in 2021/2022. I hope I am still here to see the rebirth. If not at least my thoughts on how we handled COVID-19 will forever be here on BGP.

 

Note: we handled it like crap and without true care or concern for the American people. We are slaves to the economy. Always have been. Always will be. Slavery was never abolished. It evolved.

[John Anthony]

My Walmart runs a 1/5> of what it normally does.

 

Of course, Walmart for food and essentials is different from going out to restaurants, nonessential shopping, and all that consumerism that is needed to bring the economy roaring back.

 

My Walmart and Lowe’s have been packed. They had to shift on limiting how many people could come in at a time.

[TheDeuce]

My Walmart and Lowe’s have been packed. They had to shift on limiting how many people could come in at a time.

 

Hardware stores should be closed, IMO.

 

Wal-Mart is essential.

[John Anthony]

Hardware stores should be closed, IMO.

 

Wal-Mart is essential.

 

Walmart is the new mall right now, until they start limiting what you can buy from it.

[Bluegrasscard]

My Walmart and Lowe’s have been packed. They had to shift on limiting how many people could come in at a time.

 

Wandered right into both here in Jessamine County on Saturday. I made the run to Lowes specifically expecting our state to follow Michigan. Seems repairing your home and house is no longer "essential". That word is very dangerous right now.

[Tigerpride94]

The key is widespread testing and contact tracing to keep the virus under control. I saw a village in Italy where every person was tested and like 10% had it with like 5% asymptomatic. They quarantined the positive cases and retested everybody 10 days later and after 10 days less than 1% tested positive. Quarantining positive cases is key and part of that is catching the asymptomatic positive cases.

[John Anthony]

Sounds like there is an active protest going on in Michigan, with 100’s to possibly thousands of people and cars involved.

[Hellcats]

The key is widespread testing and contact tracing to keep the virus under control. I saw a village in Italy where every person was tested and like 10% had it with like 5% asymptomatic. They quarantined the positive cases and retested everybody 10 days later and after 10 days less than 1% tested positive. Quarantining positive cases is key and part of that is catching the asymptomatic positive cases.

 

Sounds like there is an active protest going on in Michigan, with 100’s to possibly thousands of people and cars involved.

 

Yep.

We're gonna blow past 68,000.

[Voice of Reason]

Sounds like there is an active protest going on in Michigan, with 100’s to possibly thousands of people and cars involved.

 

Wouldn't it be ironic if a bunch of those protesters got infected with the virus?

[Hellcats]

Wouldn't it be ironic if a bunch of those protesters got infected with the virus?

 

I would say poetic justice, but they are going to put others and healthcare workers in danger.

[Voice of Reason]

I hope they are being respectful. It would be terrible if they were doing a protest around someone who has recently lost a family member or close friend.

[TheDeuce]

I hope they are being respectful. It would be terrible if they were doing a protest around someone who has recently lost a family member or close friend.

 

They clearly don't care.