April 19, 20206 yr While the economy and stock market rebounds, individual stock portfolios do not. IF you are drawing off of your IRA for income in retirement, it does not rebound. For instance, If you are drawing @50k our of a portfolio valued at 600k that drops to 450k, does not rebound. Your are now drawing the same amount off of an IRA worth 450k, which does not allow it to rebound. You take the hit. If you are young and building an IRA, and not drawing off ot it, Yes, normally it will rebound and build. BUT those of us who depend on our IRAs in retirement, it is a serious, future-threatening blow. Should have prepared better. :idunno:
April 19, 20206 yr I think 5-10% of those infected needing medical care is realistic. And while it may bog down medical staff, it may be the most realistic path while we wait on a vaccine. 4 million people in KY 5% = 200,000 Spread them over 6 months = 33k per month Per IMHE site— 6210 hospital beds 428 ICU beds Reality is we don’t control the concentration or location, so the above is a beat case scenario. Math doesn’t work for herd immunity to be a viable and safe option for the citizens of our state much less our country.
April 19, 20206 yr While the economy and stock market rebounds, individual stock portfolios do not. IF you are drawing off of your IRA for income in retirement, it does not rebound. For instance, If you are drawing @50k our of a portfolio valued at 600k that drops to 450k, does not rebound. Your are now drawing the same amount off of an IRA worth 450k, which does not allow it to rebound. You take the hit. If you are young and building an IRA, and not drawing off ot it, Yes, normally it will rebound and build. BUT those of us who depend on our IRAs in retirement, it is a serious, future-threatening blow. If you are in that position you should have already reallocated your portfolio more towards less volatile, safer investments, rather than being stock heavy. Not saying you wouldn't lost some, but you wouldn't have taken a big hit. I did a reallocation of my retirement account last year, and moved money into bonds, and cash based funds. With the gains I've had over 25 years, my main retirement fund is still in pretty good shape. My play around, stock investment account, not so much...although with everything factored in I'm only down about 15%.
April 19, 20206 yr 4 million people in KY 5% = 200,000 Spread them over 6 months = 33k per month Per IMHE site— 6210 hospital beds 428 ICU beds Reality is we don’t control the concentration or location, so the above is a beat case scenario. Math doesn’t work for herd immunity to be a viable and safe option for the citizens of our state much less our country. While I agree with you, I believe the way you are doing the math, you're assuming every KY resident gets Corona. I doubt that happens. Still, it won't take a large group to quickly overwhelm the system especially in rural areas.
April 23, 20206 yr Author This is a long way from herd immunity but it is a start. A New York study seeking to measure the spread of the new coronavirus found that 13.9% of 3,000 people tested across the state had signs of the virus, one of the biggest U.S. reviews to date. That implies that about 2.7 million New York residents may have had Covid-19.
April 24, 20206 yr This is a long way from herd immunity but it is a start. A New York study seeking to measure the spread of the new coronavirus found that 13.9% of 3,000 people tested across the state had signs of the virus, one of the biggest U.S. reviews to date. That implies that about 2.7 million New York residents may have had Covid-19. I was in NY the first week of February. About a week later I had a really nasty cold. CV? Probably not, but I will get an antibody test when they become available. If for no other reason than if I do have antibodies I could be a plasma donor.
April 24, 20206 yr I would like to see where we are in KY. Anybody heard of antibody tests going on in the state? Personally, I am in the camp that a very small population of KY has been exposed, but I still would like to know where we are.
April 24, 20206 yr I see finding out who has the antibodies as being valuable and helping on the herd immunity front, understanding risk factors, etc. I do not see relying on herd immunity as any kind of a solution to us getting opened. Relying on herd immunity for that purpose is lazy and a death sentence to thousands and thousands of people.
April 24, 20206 yr I see finding out who has the antibodies as being valuable and helping on the herd immunity front, understanding risk factors, etc. I do not see relying on herd immunity as any kind of a solution to us getting opened. Relying on herd immunity for that purpose is lazy and a death sentence to thousands and thousands of people. Even without antibodies most people with normal immunity systems in good condition have no or minor effects. What is the alternative? There will likely never be a vaccine based track record of vaccines for corona viruses or it will be years in the making. And staying in self-imposed isolation only weakens the immune system of healthy people. The longer we wait the more people will not have healthy immune systems due to isolation. This is why there is increased likelihood of a 'second wave'.
April 24, 20206 yr Even without antibodies most people with normal immunity systems in good condition have no or minor effects. What is the alternative? There will likely never be a vaccine based track record of vaccines for corona viruses or it will be years in the making. And staying in self-imposed isolation only weakens the immune system of healthy people. The longer we wait the more people will not have healthy immune systems due to isolation. This is why there is increased likelihood of a 'second wave'. Could we wait two more weeks? Could we wait a month? What are the pros and cons of those two options?
April 24, 20206 yr Could we wait two more weeks? Could we wait a month? What are the pros and cons of those two options? Two weeks - barely. Even though we are starting to "loosen" on Monday things that will open will not fling the doors open and gear up. The area I have most visibility into is dentistry/ortho. And they have a week or more of sorting out new procedures for what they can do. And they will still not be able to do a lot of things. A month - not doable without extreme society impact, IMHO. I said May 1 would be a problem. It will be. June 1 or late May would snuff out hope for so many small and family owned businesses that are the foundation. Any remaining buffer, rainy-day funds, etc. will be long gone. And there would still be ramp-up lead time, as above. And, as noted, the longer we hold off normal interaction - the weaker we all get in terms if immune system function. "The Herd" is weakened as a whole as we isolate each day.
May 7, 20206 yr The World Health Organization (WHO) this week praised Sweden as a potential “model” for battling the COVID-19 virus sweeping nations around the world. The biggest difference between Sweden and most nations is that the Swedes are encouraging voluntary participation with its citizens, while focusing resources on the largest at-risk population. Controversial take, to say the least.
May 7, 20206 yr Author The World Health Organization (WHO) this week praised Sweden as a potential “model” for battling the COVID-19 virus sweeping nations around the world. The biggest difference between Sweden and most nations is that the Swedes are encouraging voluntary participation with its citizens, while focusing resources on the largest at-risk population. Controversial take, to say the least. The WHO has been on the "Sweden Train" for about a week now. I have a hard time believing anything the WHO says but JA is right to point this out. Reading the tea leaves, the powers that be in Sweden are optimistic they are going to reach herd immunity and they are definitely a place for the world to watch.
May 7, 20206 yr People should have figured out by now that it doesn’t matter what other countries do or did to combat The Rona. Other country’s methods don’t matter. We are the United States of America. We will never follow anyone. That’s not who we are.
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