Herd Immunity and Shelter-in-place policies

[Beechwoodfan]

I would like to see where we are in KY. Anybody heard of antibody tests going on in the state?

 

Personally, I am in the camp that a very small population of KY has been exposed, but I still would like to know where we are.

 

We live in NKY. My husband had to make an appointment in Cincinnati for antibody testing. We also had bad colds two months ago. Don’t really think it was CV, but he is getting tested as he worked with people who had immunity.

[PurplePride92]

Sweden's population is 3% of the US population, FWIW.

 

The state of New York alone damn near doubled their population.

 

It also should be taken into account that the Swedes don’t live in the exact same conditions as Americans.

[John Anthony]

Sweden's population is 3% of the US population, FWIW.

 

10 million is a large enough sample size to solve the puzzle. I’m not sure they’ve solved it, but if they have it would be applied on larger scales. Let’s see if it’s legit though.

[Voice of Reason]

The World Health Organization (WHO) this week praised Sweden as a potential “model” for battling the COVID-19 virus sweeping nations around the world. The biggest difference between Sweden and most nations is that the Swedes are encouraging voluntary participation with its citizens, while focusing resources on the largest at-risk population.

 

Controversial take, to say the least.

 

The WHO has been on the "Sweden Train" for about a week now. I have a hard time believing anything the WHO says but JA is right to point this out.

 

Reading the tea leaves, the powers that be in Sweden are optimistic they are going to reach herd immunity and they are definitely a place for the world to watch.

 

The death rate in Sweden is currently 12.3%. Apply the same death rate to the US cases total and there would be 155,000+ dead in the US. That is more than two times the current death total in the US. That death rate in Sweden is higher than the death rate in the state of New York.

Edited May 7, 2020 by Voice of Reason

[John Anthony]

The death rate in Sweden is currently 12.3%. Apply the same death rate to the US cases total and there would be 155,000+ dead in the US. That is more than two times the current death total in the US. That death rate in Sweden is higher than the death rate in the state of New York.

 

How do we know a vaccine will work? In 1980 scientist said it would take 2 years to have one for HIV. Four decades and 32 million deaths later were still waiting. Treatments are all we will ever have.

 

The flu has a vaccine and treatments, yet we see up to 60,000 deaths annually.

 

We have to consider a plan B and a plan without a vaccine, until when/if the miracle vaccine ever comes.

[Voice of Reason]

How do we know a vaccine will work? In 1980 scientist said it would take 2 years to have one for HIV. Four decades and 32 million deaths later were still waiting. Treatments are all we will ever have.

 

The flu has a vaccine and treatments, yet we see up to 60,000 deaths annually.

 

We have to consider a plan B and a plan without a vaccine, until when/if the miracle vaccine ever comes.

 

I agree with you. There needs to be a plan. The plan has to balance opening businesses up while protecting lives as much as possible. Following the herd immunity Pied Piper off the cliff is not a plan that I endorse.

[Hellcats]

The state of New York alone damn near doubled their population.

 

It also should be taken into account that the Swedes don’t live in the exact same conditions as Americans.

 

Geographically

Sweden is 11% larger than California.

California has 37 million people vs. Sweden's 10 million

 

California

60,000 cases and 2400 deaths.

 

Sweden

25,000 cases and 3000 deaths

 

We know these numbers grow exponentially, but just for giggles let's adjust these by population. (3.7)

 

Sweden (adjusted)

92,500 cases

11,100 deaths

[John Anthony]

I agree with you. There needs to be a plan. The plan has to balance opening businesses up while protecting lives as much as possible. Following the herd immunity Pied Piper off the cliff is not a plan that I endorse.

 

I think that’s fair. Collect as much data as possible then decide. We’re still very early into this.

[Voice of Reason]

As MLB works toward a reopening, they tested all employees, not just players but all employees of all teams. The results were 0.7% have had CV19. That is not good news for those hoping many more than reported have been infected.

[Beechwoodfan]

Early in this pandemic, there was a doctor on TV who said that, as the Covid virus passes from person to person, it should mutate to a form where the human body recognizes it and then can fight it off more easily. In other word, the virus hound become less deadly. Haven’t heard that since, nor have I seen any evidence of that.

[Kentucky Windage]

Antibody testing reveals COVID-19 has been in Ohio since January, health officials say

 

Health officials said as COVID-19 testing increases in Ohio, they expect to learn more about the virus and how long it has been in the state.

 

Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton announced Monday that they have found five different cases in five different counties that the date of onset of symptoms was in January.

 

This confirms that it was more widespread way earlier then we were led to believe. This could potentially explain why our area hasn't been greatly affected.

[John Anthony]

Antibody testing reveals COVID-19 has been in Ohio since January, health officials say

 

Health officials said as COVID-19 testing increases in Ohio, they expect to learn more about the virus and how long it has been in the state.

 

Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton announced Monday that they have found five different cases in five different counties that the date of onset of symptoms was in January.

 

This confirms that it was more widespread way earlier then we were led to believe. This could potentially explain why our area hasn't been greatly affected.

 

Some of us were saying early on it was here sooner than we realized.

[Hellcats]

Antibody testing reveals COVID-19 has been in Ohio since January, health officials say

 

Health officials said as COVID-19 testing increases in Ohio, they expect to learn more about the virus and how long it has been in the state.

 

Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton announced Monday that they have found five different cases in five different counties that the date of onset of symptoms was in January.

 

This confirms that it was more widespread way earlier then we were led to believe. This could potentially explain why our area hasn't been greatly affected.

 

Just to clarify...you believe the few cases in Ohio spread it around the Midwest fast enough to develop a herd immunity?

[Kentucky Windage]

Just to clarify...you believe the few cases in Ohio spread it around the Midwest fast enough to develop a herd immunity?

 

In a sense yes. Maybe not so much yet that it isn't going to spread. But there is one of two things going on in KY.

 

1. We're not testing enough and that is not giving us a true representation for what is happening in the state.

 

or

 

2. We've achieved some kind of a herd immunity. Probably not a completely effective herd immunity but it's enough to keep our numbers lower.

 

Illinois, Ohio, Indiana, Tennessee, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri are all reporting significantly higher numbers then KY. All are reporting significantly higher infection rates. Sure, some may be due to population size.

 

Lastly, I won't speak in absolute certainties on this. It's still too new and there is so much inconsistent information out there to form absolute certainties. What I do know is it has been here long enough to know that it's not as deadly as what some are saying. It's not worth bringing our economy to its knees.

 

I have eight people in my work group. I'd put money on 3 out of the 8 already having the virus back in January. I coached eight young boys in basketball. I'd put money on 4 of them already having the virus back in February. I can't explain why or how I haven't gotten it unless I'm one of the asymptomatic people.

[Irish Cat]

Illinois, Ohio, Indiana, Tennessee, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri are all reporting significantly higher numbers then KY. All are reporting significantly higher infection rates. Sure, some may be due to population size.

 

In my opinion the simple answer is testing. All the states above with the exception of Missouri have tested way more people than Kentucky, and even Missouri has more test albeit slightly more. The more test you conduct the higher number of cases your going to find.

 

Per Worldometers as of about 5 minutes ago:

 

Illinois 471,691

Tennessee 283,924

Ohio 210,530

North Carolina 202,244

Virginia 171,239

Indiana 150,510

Missouri 115,546

Kentucky 104,001