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nWo

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About nWo

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  1. nWo

    End of the year snow?

    There's a slight chance for this weekend but after that the models are showing nothing till then but with weather that can change quickly.
  2. I was checking the CFS long rang model for possible snow events. Something interesting showed up for the end of December. A Colorado low pressure is forecast to form then move southeast into Texas before it swings northeastward towards Kentucky. A Colorado low is system that reforms after it moves east of the Rocky Mountains. These lows can cause some extreme weather conditions. Also attention needs to be paid to the Gulf of Mexico. Depending on the track of the low and how much moisture from the gulf moves into the Ohio Valley some significant wintry precipitation could fall. Also it depends on the timing of the cold air moving into Kentucky. The following two maps show what type of precipitation that could fall in Kentucky and where. Now let me end with this. The possible scenario is three weeks away and we all know things will change between now and then. So take this with a grain of salt until we get closer. I just wanted to let everyone know what I'm seeing. It was the CFS that I was looking at a couple of weeks ago that let me know about the system that just pasted through Kentucky.
  3. A low-pressure system is forecast to move across Kentucky this weekend. The low will bring rain on Saturday and as it moves northeasterly out of Kentucky cold air will wrap around and change the rain to snow late on Saturday. As of now, light accumulations are expected over some of the same areas that received snow to start this week. I will post an update in the morning.
  4. The change over from rain to snow has already started happening in the Madison County area.
  5. Good morning to everyone. Well the snow is on it's way. First there is a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of Kentucky east of the I-75 corridor from 4 pm EST/3 pm CST this afternoon till 7 am EST/6 am CST Tuesday morning. During that time plan for slipper conditions. Hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Now for what may be instore for some today. The NAM is coming in with more possible snow accumulations for those between I-65 and I-75. Also it has the snow starting earlier than the GFS. This may be true for a I just checked the radar and the change over to snow along and around the I-65 corridor. The NAM model depicted below is from 4 am EST/3 am CST this morning till 10 am EST/ 9 am CST Tuesday morning. This is what it is predicting for possible snow accumulations. The GFS has the snow starting later and moving through quicker than the NAM. The GFS timing is from 1 am EST/12 am CST this morning till 7 am EST/6 am CST. It is coming in with lighter amounts between I-65 and I-75 but is pretty close to what the NAM is showing although with lower accumulation totals from I-75 eastward. So here goes my second call for possible snow accumulations through Tuesday. Cincinnati/NKY 1-3" with some possible spots of 4" around the Maysville area. Lexington, Winchester, Mount Sterling, Ashland, Pikeville 1-3" Bowling Green, Louisville 1-2" Somerset, Corbin, London 1-2" possible spots of 3" I'll be monitoring this throughout the day and post updates when information warrants it.
  6. This will quick. I pretty much going to stay with my first call. I'm not seeing anything in the latest data to change it. I will post a more detailed update in the morning..
  7. Saturday evening update for expected wintry precipitation to start the work week. All signs are pointing to most of Kentucky receiving some accumulating snows starting Monday afternoon into Tuesday. First I would like to show what the models are showing now as for timing for the rain changing over to snow. The NAM is showing the rain changing over to snow earlier than the GFS on Monday. It is showing the change over by midmorning to all snow then continuing till the snow moves out of northern and northeastern portions of Kentucky by Tuesday evening. If this is what happens then snow accumulations will be a little higher for snow especially in the aforementioned areas. The GFS has the change over later in the afternoon. It also has the system moving out of the area by early afternoon on Tuesday. Of course this would lead to lesser amounts. I thing the GFS is not really getting a good read on this system. It has had some wild swings in snow accumulation totals. Maybe as we get to Sunday it will start getting it's act together. Now for what the models are showing for accumulation totals. The NAM The GFS I thought I would also bring in the new Blend of Models and what it is showing. Temps will fall during the day on Sunday into the mid to upper 20s. They should be in the mid 20s but rise into the low 30s as some warm are tries to move in to behind this system on Tuesday. So here is my first call for snow. 2-4" north of I-64 and east of I-75. East of I-65 and south of I-64 1-3" West of I-65 dusting to 1" I will give my second call tomorrow probably about this time
  8. I expect that to start changing tomorrow sometime.
  9. This will be a quick update. We are still a couple of days away so we should start getting some pretty good data tomorrow. I just wanted to touch base with everyone what I've been seeing. The GFS has come way down on possible snow accumulations, We are getting into range now for NAM model. These totals are at the very end of the NAM but it's totals are higher than the GFS. The following is a brand new model released today. It is called the NWS Blend of Models. It combines the data from all NWS and non-NWS models into one at the time of the latest release. It is updated every hour up to 36 hours into the future. After that, the increase between data points goes to 6 hours. So what I have studied so far accuracy should be pretty good up to 36 hours into the future. As we go along I'm expecting them to release more model data categories. The BOM as I will call It shows 1-3 inches mainly east of I-65. Being new I don't have much experience with it so we'll see how accurate it is in the future I plan a more detailed up Saturday.
  10. Ground temperature will play a big part. The ground temps around northern Kentucky are around the low 50s right now. That would cut down on the snow accumulations if they stay that high by Monday.
  11. Yes may be 7-10 inches but we are a little too far from the event to make a definite call.
  12. Thursday morning update: Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. I pray all are well and will be safe this holiday. We have the makings of a major winter storm at the beginning of next week. The models are starting to come into as good agreement as they can so far. We are 5 days away from this possible event so things can and probably will change between today and next week. First for the timing of the system. Rain will move in early Monday morning and turn over to snow later in the day. The snow is forecast to continue until late on Tuesday. The three mid-range models show this. The GFS The Euro The Canadian The models are showing some difference in the possible snow accumulations. Now let me say that these are not official yet. They will change between now and when the event starts. One reason there is some difference is the Canadian and Euro use the 10:1 ratio and the GFS I'm using the Kuchera snow accumulation forecast which I have found to be more accurate. The GFS The Euro The Canadian Once again these totals are not official yet. I just posting them to let people know what we may be facing. Everyone can prepare as they see fit.
  13. Windy conditions for other parts of Kentucky and southern Indiana: Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison- Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin- Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson- Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue- Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison- Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, and Richmond 500 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020 /400 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020/ ...Windy and Rainy Conditions Wednesday Morning... ...A Few Stronger Storms Possible Later Wednesday Afternoon... A low pressure system will move out of the Central Plains later tonight. Winds will pick up ahead of this system early Wednesday morning. Peak gusts of 30 to 40 mph are forecast in the morning hours, with a few locally higher gusts possible. These winds could cause issues with high-profile vehicles on east-west oriented roadways and may cause any loose yard objects and decorations to move around. Rains will develop early in the morning over southern Indiana and then overspread the rest of the region through the morning hours. Gusts still are possible in the afternoon, but the attention then shifts to any developing storms over western Kentucky, close to a cold front approaching the region. Should this line become organized, there would be some risk for damaging wind gusts in the late afternoon and early evening hours.
  14. ...Wind Advisory Today... .An area of low pressure will move out of Missouri and into northern Indiana, dragging a cold front into our region by this evening. Ahead of this front, gusty winds between 30 and 40 mph are expected along with a few gusts over 40 mph at times. KYZ061>067-070>078-081-082-252200- /O.NEW.KLMK.WI.Y.0007.201125T1000Z-201125T2200Z/ Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren- Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland- Clinton- Including the cities of Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany 453 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020 /353 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020/ ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON... The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect until 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ this afternoon. * TIMING...Through late afternoon and early evening. * WINDS...Gusty south winds between 30 and 40 mph. Some gusts over 40 mph expected. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured outdoor objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. Travel on W to E oriented roadways could be problematic for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of over 40 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
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