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nWo

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About nWo

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    BGP Meteorologist

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  1. This map shows the total confirmed tornadoes for 2011. Every expert forecast that I've seen have predicted that this upcoming severe weather season could mirror 2011. I've looked at about 10 so far. They are also saying that the concentration of tornadoes around Mississippi and Alabama (circled) could shift northward towards Kentucky. Many are saying people should start preparing for periods of possible long power outages. It still remains to be see if it will happen like they are predicting but I think it says something that everyone of them is predicating just about the same thing. As of now sections of Kentucky west of I-65 is in an area of moderate to extreme chance for severe weather outbreaks. East of I-65 is in an elevated chance.
  2. At the moment I'm watching the end of March and the first weekend of April for possible severe weather. From Kentucky down to Alabama.
  3. Here is how we covered those events. Some of the maps I uploaded are not working like they did back in 2011. I couldn't find the Churchill Downs Tornado thread.
  4. I've been reading what some of the experts are expecting this year. The year mentioned that this year could be like is 2011. There was a moderate La Nina that year similar to what we have this year. This has them worried about a possible repeat of that year. The past few months have seen the strongest La Nina signals since 2011. They are saying that the probability of the ingredients coming together for severe weather events is higher than normal. The tornado season of 2011 was the deadliest of modern times with over 550 deaths. Second only 1925's 794 deaths. Some may remember the super outbreak of April that year. April 27th was the Birmingham and Tuscaloosa, Alabama tornadoes. Then a few weeks later the Joplin, MO. tornado. Which was an EF-5 tornado. In Kentucky, we saw 24 tornadoes in three hours April 19-20,2011. The time they hit was between 11:22 pm and 2:30 am EDT. All but two of those tornadoes were north of I-64. All though the outbreak was at night when many were sleeping there wasn't a single injury. In June that was the Churchill Downs/Louisville tornadoes. Jefferson County saw four tornadoes, two of which attained EF-2. One of the EF-2's damaged apartments and horse barns at Churchill Downs and a large industrial building near U of L's football stadium. In February of 2011 was EF3- Eminence tornado.
  5. I just received the following email stating that tomorrow's Statewide Tornado Drill has been postponed due to the ongoing flooding situation.
  6. Q: Will the Tornado Drill set off the Emergency Alert System? A: Yes it will, including both NOAA Weather Radio, local TV and radio stations, and cable override. The one exception is in northern Kentucky, where the message will be sent as a Routine Weekly Test on NWR, per agreement with Cincinnati-area broadcasters. Q: Will the Tornado Drill set off the Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) on my mobile phone? A: No. WEA will disregard the message because it is identified as a TEST. Q: Will the Tornado Drill set off the outdoor warning sirens? A: The decision to activate sirens (or not) is made by the Director of each County Emergency Management Agency. https://www.weather.gov/lmk/KentuckyTornadoDrill
  7. https://www.weather.gov/lmk/KentuckyTornadoDrill
  8. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 13 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Arkansas Southwest Kentucky Missouri Bootheel Northern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 1000 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the watch area through the afternoon and evening hours - with a few intense thunderstorms expected. Damaging winds are the most likely threat, but large hail and a few tornadoes are also possible from the most organized storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles southwest of Hot Springs AR to 15 miles east northeast of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
  9. Update: Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 Valid 281300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail are possible from northeast Texas to Middle Tennessee and southern Kentucky. Conditions that could be conducive for the formation of strong to severe storms will exist later today. These conditions will yield the potential for tornadoes and damaging to severe wind gusts. Hail will be more of a concern early during the storm period. The severe potential may continue through much of the evening before weakening later tonight.
  10. Temperatures ahead of the cold front are expected to increase into the low 70s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s from the southern Plains as far northeast as southwest Kentucky by mid afternoon. Conditions could become favorable for a line of storms to form. This line of storms will likely pose a threat for damaging winds. A tornado or two could potentially be embedded in the line of storms. By late evening, instability is expected to weaken substantially which will likely support the line weakening by the early overnight hours. This is the HRRR simulated radar showing the line of storms from 10 am EST to 11 pm EST today. Check back for updates
  11. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma across northern Arkansas and southern Missouri and into the lower Ohio Valley this evening into tonight. Conditions are expected to be favorable for the potential formation of storms that could produce damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms. Hail and a tornado or two will also be possible.
  12. Flood Watch National Weather Service Jackson KY 950 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 KYZ085>088-110-113-115>120-271100- /O.CON.KJKL.FA.A.0001.210228T1200Z-210301T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Floyd-Knott-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher- Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Wheelwright, Manchester, Cumberland, Elkhorn City, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Hazard, Pippa Passes, Inez, Whitesburg, Harlan, Coal Run, Prestonsburg, Jenkins, South Williamson, Middlesboro, Pikeville, Hyden, Corbin, Hindman, and Pineville 950 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of northeast Kentucky...south central Kentucky and southeast Kentucky, including the following areas, in northeast Kentucky, Martin. In south central Kentucky, Whitley. In southeast Kentucky, Bell, Clay, Floyd, Harlan, Knott, Knox, Leslie, Letcher, Perry and Pike. * From Sunday morning through Monday morning * Multiple rounds of rain are expected to affect the area this weekend. The initial rainfall through Saturday will saturate the soils. Much of the expected 2 to 2.5 inches of rain that should fall Saturday night into Sunday night will run off. This will lead to significant rises and the threat for flooding of area streams, creeks, and rivers. In addition, flash flooding is also possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. &&
  13. Flood Watch National Weather Service Jackson KY 950 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-104-106>109-111-112- 114-271100- /O.CON.KJKL.FA.A.0001.210228T0600Z-210301T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe- Magoffin-Lee-Breathitt-Owsley- Including the cities of Mount Sterling, Jackson, Campton, Ravenna, Jeffersonville, Morehead, Paintsville, Beattyville, Somerset, Whitley City, Stearns, Stanton, Monticello, Irvine, Camargo, West Liberty, Burnside, Mount Vernon, Sandy Hook, Clay City, Booneville, Owingsville, Salyersville, Annville, Frenchburg, McKee, London, Brodhead, and Flemingsburg 950 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of east central Kentucky...northeast Kentucky...south central Kentucky and southeast Kentucky, including the following areas, in east central Kentucky, Bath, Elliott, Estill, Fleming, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell and Rowan. In northeast Kentucky, Johnson. In south central Kentucky, Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski, Rockcastle and Wayne. In southeast Kentucky, Breathitt, Jackson, Lee, Magoffin, Morgan, Owsley and Wolfe. * From late Saturday night through Monday morning * Multiple rounds of rain are expected to affect the area this weekend. The initial rainfall through Saturday will saturate the soils. Much of the expected 2 to 2.5 inches of rain that should fall Saturday night into Sunday night will run off. This will lead to significant rises and the threat for flooding of area streams, creeks, and rivers. In addition, flash flooding is also possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
  14. Flood Watch National Weather Service Wilmington OH 256 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021 KYZ089-090-OHZ081-088-271600- /O.EXA.KILN.FA.A.0001.210228T0600Z-210301T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Carroll-Gallatin-Adams-Scioto- Including the cities of Portsmouth, Peebles, Carrollton, West Union, Wheelersburg, and Warsaw 256 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Wilmington has expanded the * Flood Watch to include portions of Northern Kentucky and South Central Ohio, including the following counties, in Northern Kentucky, Carroll and Gallatin. In South Central Ohio, Adams and Scioto. * From late tonight through Sunday evening. * Rain will develop across the region tonight and continue through much of Sunday. This rain could be heavy at times. With the ground already saturated, there is the potential for this rain to result in flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People in the watch area, especially those living in areas prone to flooding, should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Monitor the latest forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings.
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