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nWo

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  1. Bowling Green, KY BOWLING GREEN, Ky. – A Halloween tent interrupted local power after it blew into telephone poles this afternoon on Bryant Way. If you noticed a power outage earlier today, it may have been due to the tent blowing into a primary. https://www.wnky.com/halloween-tent-causes-partial-power-outage/
  2. A Particularly Dangerous Situation Watch has been issued for large portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. This type of watch is rarely issued. I'm afraid there will be catastrophic damage and some lives lost later today. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 572 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Northern and Central Louisiana Central Mississippi * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until 700 PM CST. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to develop this afternoon and track northeastward across much of northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi. Parameters appear favorable for strong and long-tracked tornadoes this afternoon and early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles north of Fort Polk LA to 55 miles south of Tupelo MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
  3. The area being mentioned was around the mid Mississippi Valley.
  4. Since this will be a nighttime event, I'm going into BGP Severe Weather Alert Day. The Storm Prediction Center has increased the area of the level 1 Marginal Risk Area to just east of I-75. I am watching this situation throughout the day and post updates whenever possible. A strong cold front will move across Middle Tennessee tonight. As soon as early evening hours Tennessee River Valley Region and possibly lasting into overnight hours tonight across Cumberland Plateau Region, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected. Some thunderstorms could reach strong to severe thresholds, producing strong to damaging straight-line winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall, along with a few tornadoes. Overall best potential for severe weather will be from 9 PM EST until 4 AM EST. Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
  5. I've seen in some weather discussions about this possible event, Some talk about this setup being similar to December 10, 2021 setup. As everyone knows that setup produced the historic tornado outbreak last year. One thing to note. It it further south that last year's event. So I'm watching it closely to see if I see any signs that it is shifting northward.
  6. It appears there will be a significant tornado outbreak for those in mid to lower Mississippi Valley. Significant and/or long-track tornadoes will be possible.
  7. Monday morning quick update. The severe threat has increased some from yesterday. Wind damage and a few tornadoes are possible. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the threat areas in Kentucky. The level 2 Slight Risk Area now stretches to just south east of Bowling Green. The level 1 Marginal Risk Area now covers portions of Kentucky just west of I-75. I will post an update later today.
  8. Sunday afternoon update. While there is still some uncertainty on how strong this event could be, those in western and southcentral Kentucky could be seeing some strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday night into the early morning hours on Wednesday. let's look at the setup. The trough appears that it will move further south as it deepens. This will help increase the chance for storms. The southwesterly winds will bring gulf moisture into portions of Kentucky. Along the leading edge of the trough a cold front will move in easterly across the country. As the cold front moves towards Kentucky showers and thunderstorm will break out ahead of the front. One thing that may help hold down the intensity of the storms is the capping we will see in western Kentucky. Timing will be key because this cap will not allow the thunderstorms to grow. So most severe storms should hold off until after 11 pm EST. After this time, the cap is forecast to start to give way and this will give us the late night severe weather chances. The severe weather components could be damaging winds, cloud to ground lightning and tornadoes. This set-up is forecast to cause a tornado outbreak in portions of western Tennessee, eastern Arkansas, northwest Louisiana and western Mississippi. One thing to note. After the cold front passes, some along the Ohio River could see some snow showers. Trough Dew point This map shows the cap Simulated Rada The 6 hour lightning strike map(6 hours between frames). This shows the lightning from the possible storms. I will be posting another update tomorrow.
  9. I will post a more detailed update later today. As of this morning, the Storm Prediction Center has western Kentucky in a level 2 Slight Risk Area. A level 1 Marginal Risk Area extends to just west of I-65.
  10. GFS guidance continues to show a potent large-scale trough digging south across the western U.S. on Monday then start moving eastward across the Plains towards Kentucky on Tuesday. When this occurs, strong southerly winds will bring warm moist gulf air into sections of Kentucky late on Tuesday. Temperatures and dewpoints will rise into the low to mid-60s late Tuesday evening. A line of showers and storms will break out ahead of the trough. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, especially in western sections of Kentucky. The following simulations will show what possibily occur Tuesday night into the day on Wednesday. Trough Temperatures Dew Points This show the showers and possible strong storms that will breakout ahead of the trough. The EHI shows the potential conditions that could allow strong to severe storms to develop. As of now the conditions are not really strong but I will be watching it closely. The timing and possible strength of any storms that could develop are still uncertain but I will be watching and post updates as we move closer.
  11. nWo

    FYI

    Happy Thanksgiving to everyone! I just wanted to to give everyone a head up on something that maybe brewing for the middle of next week. I've been seeing the possibility of some strong to severe storms for portions of Kentucky. For now maybe Tuesday evening into the day on Wednesday. Nothing definite yet but I've notice the modeling data is showing the possibility increasing. I maybe able to post some information later tonight but more than likely my first post will be tomorrow. Mrs nWo and I are visiting out kids in Bowling Green for the Thanksgiving holiday.
  12. I'm going to issue a BGP Severe Weather Alert Day. While this appears to be not a more widespread severe weather event there is still a chance for a quick spin up tornado. This is for today and this afternoon in western Kentucky. Then during the overnight hours form most of the rest of Kentucky. A small section of western Kentucky is now under a level 3 Slight Risk Area for strong to severe storms. Most of the rest of Kentucky west of I-75 is under a level 1 Marginal Risk Area. For western Kentucky: Strong and gusty south winds are expected through the day on Tuesday. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 9 am to 7 pm for western Kentucky and parts of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move through the region Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening, a few of these storms may become severe. The main hazards would be isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two is also possible. For the rest of Kentucky: A line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the region from the west late this afternoon. A few of the thunderstorms could be capable of isolated, sporadic damaging wind gusts. A very isolated, spin up tornado may be possible as well.
  13. A compact but intense shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the southern Plains through the Mid-South and into the Lower OH Valley on Tuesday. Strong mid-level winds will accompany this shortwave, with 80+ kt winds expected to spread across the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley Tuesday morning and into the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday afternoon. A Surface low along with this shortwave is expected to begin the period over Arkansas before moving northeastward throughout the day. This low will likely reach the middle Ohio Valley by early Wednesday morning. An associated cold front will move eastward across much of Southeast during the period. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is anticipated along this front as it progresses eastward. The Storm Prediction Center has most of Kentucky south of I-64 and west of I-75 under a level 1 Marginal Risk Area for scattered strong to severe storms. This shows the low as it moves across portions of Kentucky.
  14. Showers moving in during the weekend. No snow as the model was showing last week.
  15. Tuesday late afternoon through Wednesday morning, rain chances will increase. A low-pressure system will move quickly across the center of the country and take advantage of tropical moisture moving into our region. This system could bring good soaking rains, especially to areas along and west of the I-65 corridor, along with a slight chance for thunderstorms. For now, the main threats with these storms will be heavy rain as well as brief gusty winds. This is still a developing situation so things could change.
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