nWo

It appears most of the rain will move out of the Lexington area by early afternoon. Rain fall totals of around 1/2 inch. There may be some short, lingering showers for the rest of the afternoon. Temperatures should range from the low to mid-50s through Friday evening. Look for southerly winds of around 10–15 mph. There could be some gusts of around 20 mph.

We will be experiencing a moderate to strong El Niño this winter. This will amplify the southern jet stream. Some possible storms will move along this track. As these storms move eastward along the jet stream some could become strong and pick up moisture from the unusually warm gulf waters. As a storm intensifies it could pull down arctic air out of Canada. These storms could then track up the east coast. This raises the risk of possible big snows in Kentucky. See the track map below. Every single outlook I've seen is calling for at least one big snow for Kentucky. I've seen 8+ inches in each of these outlooks. Let me say these outlooks this far out are not really reliable but indications are that we could see 1 or two big snows here in Kentucky. The curved line is the possible storm tracks. The straight line indicates the Canadian Arctic air moving into Kentucky. If I had to guess I would say most of the big snows would come mainly east of the Land between the Lakes area.

I'm in the process of putting something together. FYI, all of the info is pointing to a possible strong El Niño. Preliminary indications seem to point towards a very interesting upcoming winter.

Models suggest that the showers/storms will dissipate this morning. Conditions may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the east-central Kentucky Bluegrass into the Cumberland Plateau vicinity by mid-afternoon. A couple of stronger cells may be accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and localized potentially damaging wind gusts before the associated forcing for ascent spreads into a more stable environment and/or weakens.

Good morning - Waves of showers and storms are expected today and tonight. Strong storms are possible early this afternoon east of I-65, with severe storms possible from 4-10 PM EDT throughout central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Damaging winds and large hail are possible, and a tornado can't be ruled out this evening. Another wave of showers and storms overnight could produce locally heavy rainfall and flooding. Stay weather aware today!

As of now, it appears that it will take a southeasterly track then Saturday evening turn northeasterly and move out over the Atlantic.

Idalia has been downgraded to a tropical storm.

5:00 am update: Idalia is now a cat. 4 Hurricane. ...IDALIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ARE NEARING THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Idalia was located by Tallahassee radar near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 84.1 West. Idalia is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A north-northeastward motion is expected through the morning, with Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida this morning. After landfall, Idalia is forecast to turn toward the northeast and east-northeast, moving near or along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late today and Thursday. Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Idalia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Idalia could continue to strengthen before it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida in a few hours. While Idalia should weaken after landfall, it is likely to still be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and near the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina late today. Idalia should emerge off the southeastern United States coast early on Thursday and move eastward through late week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches) based on aircraft data. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Wakulla/Jefferson County, FL to Yankeetown, FL...12-16 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Wakulla/Jefferson County, FL...8-12 ft Yankeetown, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-8 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft Tampa Bay...4-6 ft Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft Saint Catherines Sound, GA to South Santee River, SC...3-5 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...2-4 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Saint Catherines Sound, GA...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers...2-4 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...2-4 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary's River...1-3 ft Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...1-3 ft Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft South Santee River, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Florida soon, with tropical storm conditions spreading northward and westward through this morning. Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf and west coasts. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina later today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later today in the warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, and spread into North Carolina tonight and Thursday. RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce a swath of 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with isolated maxima up to 12 inches from the Florida Big Bend through central Georgia and South Carolina, and through eastern North Carolina into Thursday. These rainfall amounts will lead to areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with considerable impacts.

...IDALIA NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... KEY MESSAGES: 1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere between Aucilla River and Yankeetown, Florida. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. There is the potential for destructive life-threatening winds where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be prepared for long-duration power outages. Damaging hurricane-force winds are possible in portions of eastern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina where Hurricane Watches are in effect. 3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally considerable impacts, are expected across the Florida Big Bend, central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North Carolina later tonight into Thursday.

Hurricane Idalia is approaching Cat. 2 status. 11 AM Update: Idalia is moving just east of due north, or 005/12 kt, between a mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and subtropical ridging over the Greater Antilles. A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected while Idalia approaches the Florida coast through Wednesday morning. Confidence is increasing that Idalia will reach the coast of Florida adjacent to Apalachee Bay Wednesday morning, with all of the reliable deterministic track models honed in on that area. Track spread remains low during Idalia's expected turn toward the northeast and east-northeast in 48-60 hours, bringing the storm's center near or along the coast of the Carolinas. On days 3 through 5, there is significant uncertainty on whether Idalia will turn out to sea (as shown by the COAMPS-TC and HAFS models) or turn southward (as suggested by the global models). For now, the official forecast shows a slow motion at the end of the forecast period until the scenario becomes clearer. Idalia is currently over a maximum of oceanic heat content associated with the Loop Current, and water temperatures remain 30-31 degrees Celsius along the forecast path up until landfall. Vertical shear is also expected to be low for the next 18-24 hours, and these conditions are expected to foster rapid intensification before Idalia reaches the coast of Florida. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere between Aucilla River and Yankeetown, Florida. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice or evacuation orders given by local officials. 2. There is the potential for destructive life-threatening winds where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be prepared for long-duration power outages. 3. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. .

Idalia has just been upgraded to a cat 1 hurricane

Idalia is moving northward or 360/7 kt. The storm should continue to be steered northward between a mid-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles through tonight. On Tuesday, a faster north-northeastward motion should begin as a trough moves into the east-central United States. This motion should bring the center of Idalia to the Gulf Coast of Florida on Wednesday. The dynamical models continue to have some spread after 36 hours, with the GFS and HAFS guidance along the western side of the envelope and the ECMWF along the eastern side. The consensus aids were slightly west of the previous cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction. The NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP-corrected consensus model. It is still worth stressing that only a small deviation in the track could cause a significant change in Idalia's landfall location in Florida due to the paralleling track to the state's west coast. When Idalia nears the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States the guidance suggests the cyclone will turn more eastward as the aforementioned trough passes to the north of the storm.

What the GFS is presently showing. The exact track is still uncertain.