Coronavirus

[tcjkbt]

When you say "death rate," what are you talking about? Deaths per total population of the country? Deaths per people tested? Deaths per people who have been tested and have come back positive for having the virus? Deaths per people who have actually contracted the disease that the virus can cause--Covid 19? Deaths per people who are now being or who have been treated for the disease?

[Voice of Reason]

When you say "death rate," what are you talking about? Deaths per total population of the country? Deaths per people tested? Deaths per people who have been tested and have come back positive for having the virus? Deaths per people who have actually contracted the disease that the virus can cause--Covid 19? Deaths per people who are now being or who have been treated for the disease?

 

Deaths per case, the percent of people that die who have coronavirus.

[TheDeuce]

Deaths per case, the percent of people that die who have coronavirus.

 

Actually it’s deaths per confirmed cases. Nobody knows how many people have it and we never will.

[Randy Parker]

I can see it happening before then.

 

Right after Memorial Day.

[Beechwoodfan]

It’s hard not to get spring fever with the warmer weather in the last few days.

[Bluegrasscard]

Actually it’s deaths per confirmed cases. Nobody knows how many people have it and we never will.

 

A category that Kentucky leads the nation in. We have more deaths per positive test case than another state in the country. Twice the national average.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

Since Kentucky's first reported case of COVID-19, here's a comparison of how the Kentucky numbers compare to things nationally. There should be some lag, by nature, because the United States' index case was confirmed on January 15th and Kentucky' index case was confirmed 50 days later on March 6th.

 

March 6

KY - 1 case; 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 214 cases; 15 deaths (7.01% mortality rate)

 

March 7

KY - 1 case (00.00% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 279 cases (30.37% increase); 19 deaths (6.81% mortality rate)

March 8

KY - 4 cases (300.00% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 423 cases (51.61% increase); 22 deaths (5.20% mortality rate)

March 9

KY - 6 cases (50.00% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 647 cases (52.96% increase); 26 deaths (4.02% mortality rate)

March 10

KY - 8 cases (33.33% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 937 cases (44.82% increase); 30 deaths (3.20% mortality rate)

 

March 11

KY - 8 cases (0.00% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 1215 cases (29.67% increase); 38 deaths (3.13% mortality rate)

March 12

KY - 11 cases (37.50% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 1629 cases (34.07% increase); 41 deaths (2.52% mortality rate)

March 13

KY - 14 cases (27.27% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 1896 cases (16.39% increase); 48 deaths (2.53% mortality rate)

 

March 14

KY - 16 cases (14.29% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 2234 cases (17.83% increase); 57 deaths (2.55% mortality rate)

March 15

KY - 20 cases (25.00% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 3487 cases (56.09% increase); 69 deaths (1.98 mortality rate)

March 16

KY - 22 cases (10.00% increase); 1 death (4.55% mortality rate)

US - 4226 cases (21.19% increase); 87 deaths (2.06% mortality rate)

 

March 17

KY - 26 cases (18.18% increase); 1 death (3.85% mortality rate)

US - 7038 cases (66.54% increase); 110 deaths (1.56% mortality rate)

March 18

KY - 35 cases (34.62% increase); 1 death (2.56% mortality rate)

US - 10442 cases (48.37% increase); 150 deaths (1.44% mortality rate)

 

March 19

KY - 40 cases (14.29% increase); 2 deaths (5.00% mortality rate)

US - 15219 cases (45.75% increase); 206 deaths (1.35% mortality rate)

March 20

KY - 48 cases (20.00% increase); 3 deaths (6.25% mortality rate)

US - 18747 cases (23.18% increase); 255 deaths (1.35% mortality rate)

March 21

KY - 63 cases (31.25% increase); 3 deaths (4.76% mortality rate)

US - 24583 cases (31.13% increase); 301 deaths (1.22% mortality rate)

March 22

KY - 99 cases (57.14% increase); 3 deaths (3.03% mortality rate)

US - 33404 cases (35.88% increase); 400 deaths (1.19% mortality rate)

March 23

KY - 124 cases (25.25% increase); 4 deaths (3.23% mortality rate)

US - 44183 cases (32.27% increase); 544 deaths (1.23% mortality rate)

March 24

KY - 163 cases (31.45% increase); 4 deaths (2.45% mortality rate)

US - 54453 cases (23.24% increase); 737 deaths (1.35% mortality rate)

March 25

KY - 198 cases (21.47% increase); 5 deaths (2.52% mortality rate)

US - 68440 cases (25.69% increase); 994 deaths (1.45% mortality rate)

 

March 26

KY - 248 cases (25.25% increase); 5 deaths (2.01% mortality rate)

US - 85356 cases (24.72% increase); 1246 deaths (1.46% mortality rate)

March 27

KY - 302 cases (21.77% increase); 7 deaths (2.32% mortality rate)

US - 103321 cases (21.05% increase); 1668 deaths (1.61% mortaility rate)

 

March 28

KY - 394 cases (30.46% increase); 7 deaths (1.78% mortality rate)

US - 122653 cases (18.71% increase); 2112 deaths (1.72% mortality rate)

 

March 29

KY - 439 cases (11.42% increase); 8 deaths (1.82% mortality rate)

US - 140904 cases (14.88% increase); 2405 deaths (1.71% mortality rate)

 

March 30

KY - 480 cases (9.34% increase); 11 deaths (2.29% mortality rate)

US - 163539 cases (16.06% increase); 2860 deaths (1.75% mortality rate)

 

March 31

KY - 591 cases (23.13% increase); 17 deaths (2.88% mortality rate)

US - 186101 cases (13.80% increase); 3603 deaths (1.94% mortality rate)

 

April 1

KY - 680 cases (15.06% increase); 20 deaths (2.94% mortality rate)

US - 213144 cases (14.53% increase); 4512 deaths (2.12% mortality rate)

 

April 2

KY - 780 cases (14.71% increase); 31 deaths (3.97% mortality rate)

US - 239279 cases (12.26% increase); 5443 deaths (2.27% mortality rate)

 

April 3

KY - 831 cases (6.54% increase); 37 deaths (4.45% mortality rate)

US - 277205 cases (15.85% increase); 6893 deaths (2.49% mortality rate)

 

April 4

KY - 917 cases (10.35% increase); 40 deaths (4.36% mortality rate)

US - 304826 cases (9.96% increase); 7616 deaths (2.50% mortality rate)

 

April 5

KY - 955 cases (4.14% increase); 45 deaths (4.71% mortality rate)

US - 330891 cases (8.55% increase); 8910 deaths (2.96% mortality rate)

 

April 6

KY - 1008 cases (5.55% increase); 59 deaths (5.85% mortality rate)

US - 374329 cases (13.13% increase); 12064 deaths (3.22% mortality rate)

 

April 7

KY - 1149 cases (13.99% increase); 65 deaths (5.66% mortality rate)

US - 395011 cases (5.53% increase); 12754 deaths (3.23% mortality rate)

 

DATA SOURCES:

United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

 

Kentucky Department of Public Health https://govstatus.egov.com/kycovid19

[Irish Cat]

A category that Kentucky leads the nation in. We have more deaths per positive test case than another state in the country. Twice the national average.

 

Given that we have only tested about 22k of 4M+ I don't really think that this means all that much.

[Voice of Reason]

Actually it’s deaths per confirmed cases. Nobody knows how many people have it and we never will.

 

Yes, that's why I used the numbers from South Korea and Germany who had widespread testing from the beginning. Their death rates are lower than other countries because they are testing everyone. I don't doubt they are missing some cases also but those are the best numbers we have to work with.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Voice of Reason

[00Rocket28]

A category that Kentucky leads the nation in. We have more deaths per positive test case than another state in the country. Twice the national average.

 

That’s because they aren’t testing everyone or anywhere close to it. I know of several who have been in contact with someone who’s tested positive, are showing symptoms and have been told to assume they have it and self quarantine for 2 weeks which do not get counted towards the number of cases numbers. And I’m certain this is the common practice at this time, which is what makes me question how serious this is at times.

[Beechwoodfan]

That’s because they aren’t testing everyone or anywhere close to it. I know of several who have been in contact with someone who’s tested positive, are showing symptoms and have been told to assume they have it and self quarantine for 2 weeks which do not get counted towards the number of cases numbers. And I’m certain this is the common practice at this time, which is what makes me question how serious this is at times.

 

Well said. Most of us are watching statistics daily in trying to understand this pandemic. However, what good are the statistics when people who have symptoms are being told they can’t be tested? It gives me great hope that the death rate is much much lower than what we are seeing...almost has to be. We are not counting deaths per CV cases, we are counting deaths among positive results. Still, lots are dying, so you can’t discount the seriousness.

 

As a former ICU nurse, the thought of being intubated and 100% dependent on overworked strangers to save my life my life terrifies me. Particularly without having family members at the bedside to advocate for me. I would much rather err on the side of caution, and take this seriously. Social distancing is a piece of cake in comparison.

[halfback20]

One popular model has lowered projected deaths in the United States to 60,000 (from about 80k on April 5). Kentucky's projected deaths was also lowered to around 1,000 (from about 1,700).

 

COVID-19 estimation updates | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

[Irish Cat]

One popular model has lowered projected deaths in the United States to 60,000 (from about 80k on April 5). Kentucky's projected deaths was also lowered to around 1,000 (from about 1,700).

 

COVID-19 estimation updates | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

 

But just wait two weeks.....

[Irish Cat]

Yes, that's why I used the numbers from South Korea and Germany who had widespread testing from the beginning. Their death rates are lower than other countries because they are testing everyone. I don't doubt they are missing some cases also but those are the best numbers we have to work with.

 

There not really testing everyone though. Germany is at 10,962 test per 1 million people while South Korea is at 9,301 per Worldometers, while that US is at 6387. They are doing better but they still only tested about 1% of their populations.

[halfback20]

But just wait two weeks.....

 

Why?