Coronavirus

[theguru]

Projections by COVIDACTNOW.org for the state of Kentucky.

 

If we do nothing in Kentucky they project 47000 deaths by the end of this.

 

With the measures currently in place in Kentucky, and poor compliance to the measures, they project 13,000 deaths.

 

With the measures currently in place in Kentucky, and strict compliance to the measures, they project 2,000 deaths.

 

[ATTACH]70171[/ATTACH]

 

So this model wants us to stay locked down until July 1st?

[Bluegrasscard]

That's just for the first wave. Some think this will come and go until we have a vaccine.

 

There is no vaccine for any other corona virus. Not sure why there is much hope that one will be found for this one. Unless its one that is advertised as effective but works like the flu vaccine that is hit and miss each year. There are very big money players in this game though, so something will likely come out.

 

Herd immunity and HCQ/Zinc treatment are possibly the long term solution.

[Bluegrasscard]

Projections by COVIDACTNOW.org for the state of Kentucky.

 

If we do nothing in Kentucky they project 47000 deaths by the end of this.

 

With the measures currently in place in Kentucky, and poor compliance to the measures, they project 13,000 deaths.

 

With the measures currently in place in Kentucky, and strict compliance to the measures, they project 2,000 deaths.

 

[ATTACH]70171[/ATTACH]

 

I do not see how they rationalize these numbers.

 

Here is what has to happen to get to 47,000 deaths (over 1% of the population). Using 4,400,000 as our population count.

 

50% get infected. 2,200,000 (seems high)

10% need hospitalization. 220,000 (seems to be the base assumption)

20% of those hospitalized die. 44,000 (seems high, but is the number needed to get near their number)

 

They are not real open with the math or assumptions of these models but reversing engineering back into the numbers can provide some insight.

 

The UK Health models said August, mid-June and late May as of Friday.

[Bluegrasscard]

So this model wants us to stay locked down until July 1st?

 

One of three UK Health models has this going on till August.

[Hellcats]

54 cases and 14 deaths for Kentucky.

 

The #of deaths per total cases is not good.

 

Cases down. Hope that is a real indicator.

Deaths...a bad day.

[Voice of Reason]

Cases down. Hope that is a real indicator.

Deaths...a bad day.

 

Makes sense as possible end game numbers. Cases slow down due to lockdown. Deaths still up as cases from prior to lockdown work to their conclusion.

[CincySportsFan]

Better do as good of a job as we can do to mitigate it this first time. When things are relaxed, there’s no chance we get everything scaled back again like it is now.

 

About as much of a chance as getting accurate numbers out of China. I think we're going to face a worse second wave just because people are going to think these restrictions are overblown and aren't worth it.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

So this model wants us to stay locked down until July 1st?

 

I'm not looking at any sources right now, but if I'm not mistaken China's case numbers continue to rise from mid-December until early-to-mid March. I know they ordered their first of any lockdowns in Hubei Province on January 23rd..

 

And as has been stated repeatedly, that's based on the (presumably false) information that China has presented publicly.

[John Anthony]

It appears we’re seeing the very beginning of the Apex now. It could be regional, so Ohio and KY might be 2 or so weeks behind NY.

[halfback20]

Cases down. Hope that is a real indicator.

Deaths...a bad day.

 

Our overall deaths vs our number of cases is bad. Too many dying.

[Voice of Reason]

I'm not looking at any sources right now, but if I'm not mistaken China's case numbers continue to rise from mid-December until early-to-mid March. I know they ordered their first of any lockdowns in Hubei Province on January 23rd..

 

And as has been stated repeatedly, that's based on the (presumably false) information that China has presented publicly.

 

I pulled up China's numbers, for what they are worth. Looks like there was a big surge from mid January till about one month later in February and then a huge drop off.

Edited April 7, 2020 by Voice of Reason

[John Anthony]

Our overall deaths vs our number of cases is bad. Too many dying.

 

Have to account for the likelihood of hundreds of thousands to millions of asymptotic people also.

[John Anthony]

One of three UK Health models has this going on till August.

 

Economically, I’m not even sure we can stay locked down to June 1st.

[sportsfan41]

I pulled up China's numbers, for what they are worth. Looks like there was a big surge from mid January till about one month later in February and then a huge drop off.

 

And when did they start testing, how accurate were those tests and how many tests have they continued doing? All of those factors matter A LOT. Unfortunately, like you said, those are China numbers so we will likely never know.

[sportsfan41]

Economically, I’m not even sure we can stay locked down to June 1st.

 

Going to be really hard for smaller countries and cities to pay people to take patients to treatment. That's when it gets really interesting.