Coronavirus

[Hellcats]

Meanwhile out of the 1.4 billion people in China there were 35 new cases today, which is one less than the 36 new cases in China yesterday.

 

Early on we had China and Iran to trust in this. Nope.

 

This thing may be a rampant in China as it was 6 weeks ago.

[Bluegrasscard]

UK Healthcare stats since start of COVID-19

 

1,957 total tests

1,887 negative

70 positive

6 current inpatients

[JDEaston]

Since Kentucky's first reported case of COVID-19, here's a comparison of how the Kentucky numbers compare to things nationally. There should be some lag, by nature, because the United States' index case was confirmed on January 15th and Kentucky' index case was confirmed 50 days later on March 6th.

 

March 6

KY - 1 case; 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 214 cases; 15 deaths (7.01% mortality rate)

 

March 7

KY - 1 case (00.00% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 279 cases (30.37% increase); 19 deaths (6.81% mortality rate)

March 8

KY - 4 cases (300.00% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 423 cases (51.61% increase); 22 deaths (5.20% mortality rate)

March 9

KY - 6 cases (50.00% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 647 cases (52.96% increase); 26 deaths (4.02% mortality rate)

March 10

KY - 8 cases (33.33% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 937 cases (44.82% increase); 30 deaths (3.20% mortality rate)

 

March 11

KY - 8 cases (0.00% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 1215 cases (29.67% increase); 38 deaths (3.13% mortality rate)

March 12

KY - 11 cases (37.50% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 1629 cases (34.07% increase); 41 deaths (2.52% mortality rate)

March 13

KY - 14 cases (27.27% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 1896 cases (16.39% increase); 48 deaths (2.53% mortality rate)

 

March 14

KY - 16 cases (14.29% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 2234 cases (17.83% increase); 57 deaths (2.55% mortality rate)

March 15

KY - 20 cases (25.00% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 3487 cases (56.09% increase); 69 deaths (1.98 mortality rate)

March 16

KY - 22 cases (10.00% increase); 1 death (4.55% mortality rate)

US - 4226 cases (21.19% increase); 87 deaths (2.06% mortality rate)

 

March 17

KY - 26 cases (18.18% increase); 1 death (3.85% mortality rate)

US - 7038 cases (66.54% increase); 110 deaths (1.56% mortality rate)

March 18

KY - 35 cases (34.62% increase); 1 death (2.56% mortality rate)

US - 10442 cases (48.37% increase); 150 deaths (1.44% mortality rate)

 

March 19

KY - 40 cases (14.29% increase); 2 deaths (5.00% mortality rate)

US - 15219 cases (45.75% increase); 206 deaths (1.35% mortality rate)

March 20

KY - 48 cases (20.00% increase); 3 deaths (6.25% mortality rate)

US - 18747 cases (23.18% increase); 255 deaths (1.35% mortality rate)

March 21

KY - 63 cases (31.25% increase); 3 deaths (4.76% mortality rate)

US - 24583 cases (31.13% increase); 301 deaths (1.22% mortality rate)

March 22

KY - 99 cases (57.14% increase); 3 deaths (3.03% mortality rate)

US - 33404 cases (35.88% increase); 400 deaths (1.19% mortality rate)

March 23

KY - 124 cases (25.25% increase); 4 deaths (3.23% mortality rate)

US - 44183 cases (32.27% increase); 544 deaths (1.23% mortality rate)

March 24

KY - 163 cases (31.45% increase); 4 deaths (2.45% mortality rate)

US - 54453 cases (23.24% increase); 737 deaths (1.35% mortality rate)

March 25

KY - 198 cases (21.47% increase); 5 deaths (2.52% mortality rate)

US - 68440 cases (25.69% increase); 994 deaths (1.45% mortality rate)

 

March 26

KY - 248 cases (25.25% increase); 5 deaths (2.01% mortality rate)

US - 85356 cases (24.72% increase); 1246 deaths (1.46% mortality rate)

March 27

KY - 302 cases (21.77% increase); 7 deaths (2.32% mortality rate)

US - 103321 cases (21.05% increase); 1668 deaths (1.61% mortaility rate)

 

March 28

KY - 394 cases (30.46% increase); 7 deaths (1.78% mortality rate)

US - 122653 cases (18.71% increase); 2112 deaths (1.72% mortality rate)

 

March 29

KY - 439 cases (11.42% increase); 8 deaths (1.82% mortality rate)

US - 140904 cases (14.88% increase); 2405 deaths (1.71% mortality rate)

 

March 30

KY - 480 cases (9.34% increase); 11 deaths (2.29% mortality rate)

US - 163539 cases (16.06% increase); 2860 deaths (1.75% mortality rate)

 

March 31

KY - 591 cases (23.13% increase); 17 deaths (2.88% mortality rate)

US - 186101 cases (13.80% increase); 3603 deaths (1.94% mortality rate)

 

April 1

KY - 680 cases (15.06% increase); 20 deaths (2.94% mortality rate)

US - 213144 cases (14.53% increase); 4512 deaths (2.12% mortality rate)

 

April 2

KY - 780 cases (14.71% increase); 31 deaths (3.97% mortality rate)

US - TBD

 

DATA SOURCES:

United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

 

Kentucky Department of Public Health https://govstatus.egov.com/kycovid19

 

The mortality rate needs to turn around, its heading the wrong direction. That's the crazy thing about this virus, the mortality rates are all over the place which makes you second guess if the numbers are right. Which makes me lean toward they're even higher than what we know. Approaching a 4% mortality rate is not good at all, but what if it's really worse than that?

[Irish Cat]

The mortality rate needs to turn around, its heading the wrong direction. That's the crazy thing about this virus, the mortality rates are all over the place which makes you second guess if the numbers are right. Which makes me lean toward they're even higher than what we know. Approaching a 4% mortality rate is not good at all, but what if it's really worse than that?

 

I'd have to think that the numbers are actually a lot better than that. 4% is based on the known number of cases, but since even people who have symptoms are having difficulty even getting tested the actual number of cases has to be much higher than we know, which would in turn lower the mortality rate. I don't see how we will ever truly know how many people have had this or the actual mortality rate due to the inability to test everyone.

[Irish Cat]

The link goes to a press release from yesterday from British American Tobacco which states that they are working on a way to develop a vaccine for Covid-19 using tobacco plants. I don't really understand the science of why tobacco plants might offer a faster way to produce a vaccine, or whether this is a realist path to a cure. What I found most interesting about the press release is that the work is being done in my hometown of Owensboro. I had no idea that this place even existed. It would be pretty cool if the cure to the pandemic originates or is at least contributed to by work done right here.

 

British American Tobacco - BAT working on potential COVID-19 vaccine through US bio-tech subsidiary

[TheDeuce]

The mortality rate needs to turn around, its heading the wrong direction. That's the crazy thing about this virus, the mortality rates are all over the place which makes you second guess if the numbers are right. Which makes me lean toward they're even higher than what we know. Approaching a 4% mortality rate is not good at all, but what if it's really worse than that?

 

The mortality rate likely isn’t anywhere close to 4%, but since we’ll never test everyone, it will always seem higher than what it is.

[futurecoach]

The mortality rate needs to turn around, its heading the wrong direction. That's the crazy thing about this virus, the mortality rates are all over the place which makes you second guess if the numbers are right. Which makes me lean toward they're even higher than what we know. Approaching a 4% mortality rate is not good at all, but what if it's really worse than that?

 

I would be willing to bet the mortality rate is a whole less lower than what it shows right now. Currently in KY, they are basically only testing people with true severe symptoms. So that means there could be lots of people who also have it, that have had lighter symptoms or no symptoms at all. So they would never show up in the numbers for how many people have it.

 

So when you are only testing the most severe cases. That means there most likely will be more deaths, since the ones tested are the ones who had severe symptoms. So it is not giving us a true mortality rate percentage at all. So chances are it is much lower, and not higher.

[futurecoach]

The mortality rate likely isn’t anywhere close to 4%, but since we’ll never test everyone, it will always seem higher than what it is.

 

This.

[Voice of Reason]

The mortality rate likely isn’t anywhere close to 4%, but since we’ll never test everyone, it will always seem higher than what it is.

 

This.

 

For the mortality rate on this, I look to the numbers from South Korea and Germany. Both of them ramped up their testing before they even had cases in their country and have been testing everyone vary widely. Germany is at 1.3% and South Korea is at 1.7%. Those numbers are lower than ours but still alarmingly high when compared to flu death rates.

[sportsfan41]

I'd have to think that the numbers are actually a lot better than that. 4% is based on the known number of cases, but since even people who have symptoms are having difficulty even getting tested the actual number of cases has to be much higher than we know, which would in turn lower the mortality rate. I don't see how we will ever truly know how many people have had this or the actual mortality rate due to the inability to test everyone.

 

Not even factoring in the folks that are infected but have no symptoms.

[CincySportsFan]

Meanwhile out of the 1.4 billion people in China there were 35 new cases today, which is one less than the 36 new cases in China yesterday.

 

I get it that we have to accept China's reports as fact just because we have nothing else to go on, but I'll readily state that I don't believe what they're reporting for even the most remote amount of time. I would guess that on the conservative side of things, they probably have at least 10 times the numbers that they're reporting.

 

The fact that they released a number of 35 is just plain insulting. Honestly, even if they used a number 10 times that, I'd still be suspicious. The 35 is just ridiculous.

[CincySportsFan]

Meanwhile out of the 1.4 billion people in China there were 35 new cases today, which is one less than the 36 new cases in China yesterday.

 

UK Healthcare stats since start of COVID-19

 

1,957 total tests

1,887 negative

70 positive

6 current inpatients

 

Here's the thing that is getting to me right now...

 

They say we can't test everyone, just because there's not enough kits. So, they are only testing those who are truly showing the symptoms. But, when 96% of the tests come back NEGATIVE, it makes me wonder...what the heck do all these other people have? Is it just the "regular" flu?

[Voice of Reason]

Here's the thing that is getting to me right now...

 

They say we can't test everyone, just because there's not enough kits. So, they are only testing those who are truly showing the symptoms. But, when 96% of the tests come back NEGATIVE, it makes me wonder...what the heck do all these other people have? Is it just the "regular" flu?

 

I am not sure of the testing process right now. A couple weeks back they were testing for the flu first. If that came back negative, then they would test for CV19.

[John Anthony]

UK opening a 400-bed field hospital in the Nutter Field House.

[Bluegrasscard]

UK opening a 400-bed field hospital in the Nutter Field House.

 

UK Healthcare modeling shows the peak in mid-June. So they are saying this is just the very beginning. We are barely into a bell curve model they show. I have no idea if those model assume a lower parallel volume through use of HCQ. And their model shows peak could be handled with the existing hospital facilities since almost every room in the new hospital can act as an ICU. But obviously they are having to develop additional contingency plans.