Coronavirus

[MJAlltheWay24]

^^ Even I would agree that to wait for a 30% school absence rate would be totally foolhardy. BUT that's how it had been done in the past.

 

I very much still contend that we jumped the gun and have done all of the isolation things at least two weeks too soon.

 

I still contend that I don't have it. My neighbors don't have it, no one in my subdivision has it, and no one in most towns have it. So, my rational is that we've jumped through these hoops too soon. That will all change at some soon point in time. I will also agree that there is no perfect answer.

 

I was encouraged today that the stores seem to have rebounded from the initial onslaught, and that folks were still out enjoying the nice weather.

 

Call me crazy, but I think there is a pretty good reason that your community doesn't have the virus yet.

 

I don't think my neighborhood does either, but I have no clue because I don't talk to all 50-60 families in my neighborhood.

[TheDeuce]

^^ Even I would agree that to wait for a 30% school absence rate would be totally foolhardy. BUT that's how it had been done in the past.

 

I very much still contend that we jumped the gun and have done all of the isolation things at least two weeks too soon.

 

I still contend that I don't have it. My neighbors don't have it, no one in my subdivision has it, and no one in most towns have it. So, my rational is that we've jumped through these hoops too soon. That will all change at some soon point in time. I will also agree that there is no perfect answer.

 

If you haven't been tested, I assume you have it.

[Mustang]

If you haven't been tested, I assume you have it.

 

OK, That makes sense. :ohbrother:

[TheDeuce]

OK, That makes sense. :ohbrother:

 

It makes more sense than saying no one in your entire community has it. :lol2:

 

It's also a much more responsible way to approach the virus.

[Bluegrasscard]

Got a call from a high school friend today who lives in Cincinnati - the call itself was sad news but not related the CV situation. But we did get on the subject. He relayed a situation at a hospital in Cincinnati.

 

A man came in with the minimal symptoms in the morning, was on ventilator by evening. Two days passed and he was recovered or at least out of danger. Here is the kicker, the person had just gotten home from Louisiana - one of the "hot spots".

[swamprat]

Pinellas County Sheriff's deputies were running folks off a beach near the Gandy Bridge last weekend.

 

Saturday, people were parking on the side of the road on the Courtney Campbell Causeway where all of the parking areas had been blocked off. They were then running on and fishing off of the beaches, bridges, and walkways. I heard Sunday, the HCSD was ticketing and towing.

 

As of Saturday, I know that the census at most Bay Care hospitals (the largest chain of hospitals in the bay area) was down. Lower than normal for this time of year. I don't know what that means nor do I have any speculation about that, just reporting facts as I know them.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

March 30

KY - 480 cases (9.34% increase); 11 deaths (2.29% mortality rate)

US - 163539 cases (16.06% increase); 2860 deaths (1.75% mortality rate)

 

Currently approximately 1/3 of the ventilators in Jefferson County are being used by patients who have either tested positive for COVID-19 or are waiting for COVID-19 test results to come back from the lab. Fayette County is in a similar situation.

 

Those numbers do not include the total number of ventilators being used by non-COVID patients.

 

These are are total numbers of hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators available in Kentucky. The state is working to improve all of those things via temporary facilities.

 

[Voice of Reason]

The good news in KY is it looks like numbers are starting to level off. Was March 28 the peak in KY?

[tcjkbt]

I just talked with an infectious disease doctor at a Louisville hospital. He mentioned, as he has all the way through this ordeal, that the data is so sketchy and non-uniform - coupled with the novel nature of the disease, that it is hard to predict the future of the disease. He did say that of the 20 or so COVID patients in the hospital all but one have pre-existing , exacerbating conditions.

Edited March 31, 2020 by tcjkbt

[futurecoach]

The good news in KY is it looks like numbers are starting to level off. Was March 28 the peak in KY?

 

Hopefully it was the peak, but with how limited we still are with testing it’s hard to know. I know a about three or four people this week who were experiencing symptoms, and talked to their doctor. One of them has a severe immune disorder, and this could effect them more than most people. The doctors were just telling them them to stay at their home and quarantine for two weeks. Then if it gets severe call them and they will let someone know and have them tested somewhere. So it is still impossible to know how many people have it or had it, because they still are only testing the most severe people with symptoms.

[bugatti]

Hopefully it was the peak, but with how limited we still are with testing it’s hard to know. I know a about three or four people this week who were experiencing symptoms, and talked to their doctor. One of them has a severe immune disorder, and this could effect them more than most people. The doctors were just telling them them to stay at their home and quarantine for two weeks. Then if it gets severe call them and they will let someone know and have them tested somewhere. So it is still impossible to know how many people have it or had it, because they still are only testing the most severe people with symptoms.

I agree. We will never know the full extent to which people were infected. My gut tells me it is probably triple of the current count of positive cases. A good example came from the Howard Stern Show yesterday. Howard's lead writer's wife tested positive for COVID-19. The other three in the family came down with the symptoms, and presumably the virus, but never took a test.

[coldweatherfan]

I agree. We will never know the full extent to which people were infected. My gut tells me it is probably triple of the current count of positive cases. A good example came from the Howard Stern Show yesterday. Howard's lead writer's wife tested positive for COVID-19. The other three in the family came down with the symptoms, and presumably the virus, but never took a test.

 

I was listening to the radio, and they were saying that flu cases are an estimate. Depending on who is projecting, the estimate is typically 6 to 10 times actual recorded, because so many people never go to the doctor.

[Bluegrasscard]

Comparison of Wundergrounds Wondermap tracking - last Tuesday to yesterday.

 

 

One observation is the "footprint" is mostly stable it terms of verified cases. In Kentucky it seems the counties that picked up first time cases were along the I-69 corridor in the west.

[Hellcats]

http://https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.axios.com/coronavirus-states-peak-hospitals-53274e0e-69b8-4dc7-b069-fb27955c559a.html

 

Looks like KY peak will happen in early May.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

Since Kentucky's first reported case of COVID-19, here's a comparison of how the Kentucky numbers compare to things nationally. There should be some lag, by nature, because the United States' index case was confirmed on January 15th and Kentucky' index case was confirmed 50 days later on March 6th.

 

March 6

KY - 1 case; 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 214 cases; 15 deaths (7.01% mortality rate)

 

March 7

KY - 1 case (00.00% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 279 cases (30.37% increase); 19 deaths (6.81% mortality rate)

March 8

KY - 4 cases (300.00% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 423 cases (51.61% increase); 22 deaths (5.20% mortality rate)

March 9

KY - 6 cases (50.00% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 647 cases (52.96% increase); 26 deaths (4.02% mortality rate)

March 10

KY - 8 cases (33.33% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 937 cases (44.82% increase); 30 deaths (3.20% mortality rate)

 

March 11

KY - 8 cases (0.00% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 1215 cases (29.67% increase); 38 deaths (3.13% mortality rate)

March 12

KY - 11 cases (37.50% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 1629 cases (34.07% increase); 41 deaths (2.52% mortality rate)

March 13

KY - 14 cases (27.27% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 1896 cases (16.39% increase); 48 deaths (2.53% mortality rate)

 

March 14

KY - 16 cases (14.29% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 2234 cases (17.83% increase); 57 deaths (2.55% mortality rate)

March 15

KY - 20 cases (25.00% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 3487 cases (56.09% increase); 69 deaths (1.98 mortality rate)

March 16

KY - 22 cases (10.00% increase); 1 death (4.55% mortality rate)

US - 4226 cases (21.19% increase); 87 deaths (2.06% mortality rate)

 

March 17

KY - 26 cases (18.18% increase); 1 death (3.85% mortality rate)

US - 7038 cases (66.54% increase); 110 deaths (1.56% mortality rate)

March 18

KY - 35 cases (34.62% increase); 1 death (2.56% mortality rate)

US - 10442 cases (48.37% increase); 150 deaths (1.44% mortality rate)

 

March 19

KY - 40 cases (14.29% increase); 2 deaths (5.00% mortality rate)

US - 15219 cases (45.75% increase); 206 deaths (1.35% mortality rate)

March 20

KY - 48 cases (20.00% increase); 3 deaths (6.25% mortality rate)

US - 18747 cases (23.18% increase); 255 deaths (1.35% mortality rate)

March 21

KY - 63 cases (31.25% increase); 3 deaths (4.76% mortality rate)

US - 24583 cases (31.13% increase); 301 deaths (1.22% mortality rate)

March 22

KY - 99 cases (57.14% increase); 3 deaths (3.03% mortality rate)

US - 33404 cases (35.88% increase); 400 deaths (1.19% mortality rate)

March 23

KY - 124 cases (25.25% increase); 4 deaths (3.23% mortality rate)

US - 44183 cases (32.27% increase); 544 deaths (1.23% mortality rate)

March 24

KY - 163 cases (31.45% increase); 4 deaths (2.45% mortality rate)

US - 54453 cases (23.24% increase); 737 deaths (1.35% mortality rate)

March 25

KY - 198 cases (21.47% increase); 5 deaths (2.52% mortality rate)

US - 68440 cases (25.69% increase); 994 deaths (1.45% mortality rate)

 

March 26

KY - 248 cases (25.25% increase); 5 deaths (2.01% mortality rate)

US - 85356 cases (24.72% increase); 1246 deaths (1.46% mortality rate)

March 27

KY - 302 cases (21.77% increase); 7 deaths (2.32% mortality rate)

US - 103321 cases (21.05% increase); 1668 deaths (1.61% mortaility rate)

 

March 28

KY - 394 cases (30.46% increase); 7 deaths (1.78% mortality rate)

US - 122653 cases (18.71% increase); 2112 deaths (1.72% mortality rate)

 

March 29

KY - 439 cases (11.42% increase); 8 deaths (1.82% mortality rate)

US - 140904 cases (14.88% increase); 2405 deaths (1.71% mortality rate)

 

March 30

KY - 480 cases (9.34% increase); 11 deaths (2.29% mortality rate)

US - 163539 cases (16.06% increase); 2860 deaths (1.75% mortality rate)

 

March 31

KY - 591 cases (23.13% increase); 17 deaths (2.88% mortality rate)

US - TBD

 

DATA SOURCES:

United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

 

Kentucky Department of Public Health https://govstatus.egov.com/kycovid19