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2024 Dixie Heights Colonels


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Aug 23 vs. Simon Kenton
Aug 30 vs. Hughes (OH)
Sep 6 at Beechwood
Sep 13 vs. Covington Catholic
Sep 20 - BYE
Sep 27 at Boone County (District)
Oct 4 at Highlands (District)
Oct 10 vs. Conner (District)
Oct 18 at Scott (District)
Oct 25 vs. Cooper (District)
Nov 1 at Ryle


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  • 4 weeks later...

Dixie will need to rewrite their defensive scheme after Brach Rice's graduation. Brach's position coach told me that he accounted for 20% of the team's solo tackles in 2023. He actually told me they graduate all of their top four tacklers who accounted for right around half of their solo tackles last year.

On offense they get quarterback Armani Gregg back for his senior season. That means the top rusher for the team is coming back in addition to their #2 and #3 rushers. Those three account for half of Dixie's offensive yards last year. They do have to replace their top two receivers, but Dixie seemed like they had a bounty of solid recievers last season. I'm clueless as to what graduation does to their offensive and defensive lines, though.

I don't know much about HC Patrick Burke, but I've liked seeing how he's turned Dixie into that pitbull program in Edgewood. I'm really interested to see how he reboots this season. 

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They should redo the defense since their defensive coordinator Chris Mobley left to take the Head Coaching job across the river at Gamble Montessori High School in February, then a month later accepted another Head Coaching job at Purcell Marian in Cincinnati.  

Dixie needs to do figure out what kind of team they want to be.  They can be an absolute force if they decide to make better decisions regarding scheme, especially on defense.  Their defensive scheme lost them games last year, plain and simple.  Against teams that were close to their talent level, or above, they would run press man coverage and get absolutely torched.  The Beechwood game especially was the biggest example of that.  But they kept running press man zero.  People in the stand would be yelling, well, here comes a big play because they are in press and bingo, it would happen.

They have really good numbers and really solid buy-in from the kids from what I'm hearing.  They have some solid looking dudes.  

 

I would love to see Gregg moved to RB and just feed that beast of a human the ball 30+ times a game.  He's simply too big and strong to not run the ball that much, and they have a backup QB who IMHO is more accurate with the ball.  

I love the idea of going quick, no huddle.... more snaps and means more opportunities to score.  But, there's no need to be "cute" all the time.  There's nothing wrong with smash mouth football, and smash mouth is VERY affective when you can combine it with quick tempo.

I wouldn't call Dixie a "pitbull" by any means, but they have the ability to definitely become one.  They need to get out of their own way first.  And when they do get over the hump, they have the ability to stay there for quite a while as I know there is talent & numbers in the Middle School coming up.  Hopefully this season can be a statement season for Coach Burke and the Colonels.  

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Dixie has always had that potential of a program and outside of a few top end years they have struggled to consistently be a top football team in the area. And I know it was mentioned in the bball thread, but with their numbers and the amount of athletes that roam those halls it's inexcusable. Athletically as a whole being how big they have been for how long, they should have more hardware to show for it.

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Too many athletes roaming the halls and not playing football at Dixie has been a long time problem, and from what I'm hearing, it's going to be a continued problem.  The difference between this and basketball, IMO, is that athletes make an impact in football not basketball.  Basketball needs basketball players, which aren't roaming the halls.

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9 hours ago, New Colonel said:

They should redo the defense since their defensive coordinator Chris Mobley left to take the Head Coaching job across the river at Gamble Montessori High School in February, then a month later accepted another Head Coaching job at Purcell Marian in Cincinnati.  

Dixie needs to do figure out what kind of team they want to be.  They can be an absolute force if they decide to make better decisions regarding scheme, especially on defense.  Their defensive scheme lost them games last year, plain and simple.  Against teams that were close to their talent level, or above, they would run press man coverage and get absolutely torched.  The Beechwood game especially was the biggest example of that.  But they kept running press man zero.  People in the stand would be yelling, well, here comes a big play because they are in press and bingo, it would happen.

They have really good numbers and really solid buy-in from the kids from what I'm hearing.  They have some solid looking dudes.  

 

I would love to see Gregg moved to RB and just feed that beast of a human the ball 30+ times a game.  He's simply too big and strong to not run the ball that much, and they have a backup QB who IMHO is more accurate with the ball.  

I love the idea of going quick, no huddle.... more snaps and means more opportunities to score.  But, there's no need to be "cute" all the time.  There's nothing wrong with smash mouth football, and smash mouth is VERY affective when you can combine it with quick tempo.

I wouldn't call Dixie a "pitbull" by any means, but they have the ability to definitely become one.  They need to get out of their own way first.  And when they do get over the hump, they have the ability to stay there for quite a while as I know there is talent & numbers in the Middle School coming up.  Hopefully this season can be a statement season for Coach Burke and the Colonels.  

What do they do that’s “cute”?

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22 hours ago, barrel said:

What do they do that’s “cute”?

They try to pass too much, and try exotic plays in situations where it doesn't make sense.  And I have seen coaches disagreeing with each other on the sidelines about what play to call while the players are waiting and visibly agitated which leads to delay of game penalties.

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  • 1 month later...

Having Highlands AND Cooper in your district plus neighboring CovCath nearby to snag some occasional players that might otherwise play for Dixie makes life tough too. Playing a nondistrict schedule of usually high scoring teams like Simon Kenton, CovCath, Ryle and Beechwood present obvious challenges for any defense. Dixie scored against pretty much everybody except Cooper during the regular season last year and offense hasn't really been a problem. It shouldn't be this year either with Armani Gregg at QB. Moving him to running back doesn't seem ideal when you've got two experienced and productive backs and inexperience behind Gregg in the QB room. 

The notion that a change can be made by moving Gregg to running back just because a backup QB might occasionally flash some accuracy in one person's opinion doesn't fully grasp the complexities needed to start at QB, which requires so much more than passing accuracy although that is obviously important. On the field of play against live defense while passing the eye test, Gregg completed 59% of his 191 passes last year while averaging 15.7 yards per completion. His backup completed 50 percent of 22 passes with an average completion length of 5.6 yards. Nobody else threw a pass at Dixie.

For Dixie to just suddenly hand the car keys to a backup with no backup with Gregg around after all that QB tutelage provided to Gregg seems counterintuitive at best, although anything's possible I guess. If Gregg gets 30+ carries at RB, that potentially makes him a significant injury risk and marginalizes a good RB in David Anderson in his senior season unless there's a plan to move Anderson to WR and pair him with Nolan Goetz, which seems like a risk. JJ Kriger has potential at WR so Anderson isn't necessarily needed there plus he can catch plenty of passes staying at RB.

In the moving parts scenario, now you have two of your best offensive skill players starting at entirely different positions in the same year, as seniors. Again, it's possible but not likely. Anderson averaged about 6.4 yards per carry last year with a nose for the end zone and ran for 857. They also have Lamiego Mutongwiza in the backfield. Anderson allows them to effectively use play action with Gregg who can get a bunch of carries staying right where he is. Anderson makes the defense honor the run. A new QB handing the ball off to a former QB 30 times a game doesn't have as much potential to fool a defense in my opinion. 

Dixie is becoming a tough place to win because they choose to make it more difficult to win which is commendable. Lots of coaches like to say they play a tough schedule but this is actually a fact at Dixie. I realize the KHSAA RPI is not an ideal measurement but if we just use that, Dixie's 9 Kentucky opponents last year had an RPI average of .579 which is like playing Cooper every week. Take out Boone County and Scott and Dixie's opponent RPI average jumps to .636 which would have been like playing Scott County for all but two games last year.

Realignment should help but not till 2025 when it'll be Dixie with Boone County, Conner, Cooper and Scott, which is one less bully in the district but should help at least from a statistical standpoint. The last two seasons Highlands has scored almost 15% of the points Dixie has given up: 150 in 3 games. 

That said, only 39 wins in nine seasons since that great 2014 with the state final game against Trinity isn't a lot of success. That's about 4 wins a year. And the defense has been a yearly issue now recently with the exception of 2021 which is looking like an outlier. Every year since 2016 with the exception of 2021 and 2019, they have given up more than 26 points per game. To be fair, they tightened the screws last year giving up about 26 points after giving up 40 per game in 2022. That's a big improvement but you would think with all the football players they usually have at Dixie that the defense could be better. After losing a tackling machine like Brach Rice and all those other top tacklers it's tough to be optimistic about the D this year but maybe they will surprise us with a bunch of inspired seniors. Another huge class of seniors for Dixie again: 24 this year after 20 last year. Good luck to the red Colonels.

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@Crazy Legs that sir is an impressive and well put together breakdown. 
 

I think last year Dixie had the second hardest schedule in 5A only behind Bowling Green and that was by a very slim margin. That is a real tough balance to have too. With Scott and Boone in the district barring something crazy Dixie will make the playoffs. So in theory the schedule prepares them for post season play. The other side is how does it affect injuries and optics when just looking at wins and loses. 
 

One thing about defense in general in today’s game is your defense needs to be able to statistically hold teams to 21 pts and offense needs to be able to produce 28 pts. Between the rise in number of possessions, game clock, passing and other factors that tends to be the benchmark. 
 

Once again great breakdown and thank you for taking the time to also figure out the accompaning statistics. 

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On 6/15/2024 at 2:37 PM, Crazy Legs said:

Having Highlands AND Cooper in your district plus neighboring CovCath nearby to snag some occasional players that might otherwise play for Dixie makes life tough too. Playing a nondistrict schedule of usually high scoring teams like Simon Kenton, CovCath, Ryle and Beechwood present obvious challenges for any defense. Dixie scored against pretty much everybody except Cooper during the regular season last year and offense hasn't really been a problem. It shouldn't be this year either with Armani Gregg at QB. Moving him to running back doesn't seem ideal when you've got two experienced and productive backs and inexperience behind Gregg in the QB room. 

The notion that a change can be made by moving Gregg to running back just because a backup QB might occasionally flash some accuracy in one person's opinion doesn't fully grasp the complexities needed to start at QB, which requires so much more than passing accuracy although that is obviously important. On the field of play against live defense while passing the eye test, Gregg completed 59% of his 191 passes last year while averaging 15.7 yards per completion. His backup completed 50 percent of 22 passes with an average completion length of 5.6 yards. Nobody else threw a pass at Dixie.

For Dixie to just suddenly hand the car keys to a backup with no backup with Gregg around after all that QB tutelage provided to Gregg seems counterintuitive at best, although anything's possible I guess. If Gregg gets 30+ carries at RB, that potentially makes him a significant injury risk and marginalizes a good RB in David Anderson in his senior season unless there's a plan to move Anderson to WR and pair him with Nolan Goetz, which seems like a risk. JJ Kriger has potential at WR so Anderson isn't necessarily needed there plus he can catch plenty of passes staying at RB.

In the moving parts scenario, now you have two of your best offensive skill players starting at entirely different positions in the same year, as seniors. Again, it's possible but not likely. Anderson averaged about 6.4 yards per carry last year with a nose for the end zone and ran for 857. They also have Lamiego Mutongwiza in the backfield. Anderson allows them to effectively use play action with Gregg who can get a bunch of carries staying right where he is. Anderson makes the defense honor the run. A new QB handing the ball off to a former QB 30 times a game doesn't have as much potential to fool a defense in my opinion. 

Dixie is becoming a tough place to win because they choose to make it more difficult to win which is commendable. Lots of coaches like to say they play a tough schedule but this is actually a fact at Dixie. I realize the KHSAA RPI is not an ideal measurement but if we just use that, Dixie's 9 Kentucky opponents last year had an RPI average of .579 which is like playing Cooper every week. Take out Boone County and Scott and Dixie's opponent RPI average jumps to .636 which would have been like playing Scott County for all but two games last year.

Realignment should help but not till 2025 when it'll be Dixie with Boone County, Conner, Cooper and Scott, which is one less bully in the district but should help at least from a statistical standpoint. The last two seasons Highlands has scored almost 15% of the points Dixie has given up: 150 in 3 games. 

That said, only 39 wins in nine seasons since that great 2014 with the state final game against Trinity isn't a lot of success. That's about 4 wins a year. And the defense has been a yearly issue now recently with the exception of 2021 which is looking like an outlier. Every year since 2016 with the exception of 2021 and 2019, they have given up more than 26 points per game. To be fair, they tightened the screws last year giving up about 26 points after giving up 40 per game in 2022. That's a big improvement but you would think with all the football players they usually have at Dixie that the defense could be better. After losing a tackling machine like Brach Rice and all those other top tacklers it's tough to be optimistic about the D this year but maybe they will surprise us with a bunch of inspired seniors. Another huge class of seniors for Dixie again: 24 this year after 20 last year. Good luck to the red Colonels.

I detailed this throughout the season last year. Dixie is better with Gregg at RB. The stats from last year support that. Look at Dixie's wins and losses and how many times Gregg threw the ball. In the games where he threw the ball more, they lost. When he threw it less, they won.

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Good feedback. But I also feel like this might be an oversimplification.

The suggestion that Dixie might perform better with Gregg at RB particularly focusing on the correlation between the number of times he threw the ball and the team’s wins and losses is just too simple of an explanation within a very complex dynamic. The flaw in the argument lies in what some people call the correlation-causation fallacy. This occurs when an argument mistakenly assumes that just because two events occur together, one must be the cause of the other.

In this case the argument assumes that Gregg throwing the ball less leads to more Dixie wins because there is a correlation between fewer throws and victories. However, this does not consider other factors that could contribute to the wins such as the effectiveness of the running game, the performance of the defense or the quality of the opposition, ect.

Correlation does not imply causation. People in my field learn that fairly quickly but I realize it can be an esoteric understanding. Just because there is a correlation between the number of throws and losses, it doesn’t necessarily mean that throwing the ball more causes losses. Other factors could contribute to the outcome of the games. Plus, there is the incomplete information factor. The Gregg argument in part is based on a partial view of the statistics. It doesn’t thoroughly consider all contexts and variables like special teams play, turnovers, coaching decisions, that one blown coverage in an otherwise solid series, all of which can significantly impact the game’s result.

Additionally, Dixie did not win a close game all last year. The smallest victory margin was 25 points. However, Dixie lost to Beechwood by just 1 point in overtime and to CovCath and Cooper by just 7 both on the road, making the Gregg throwing argument's margin for error quite small. What happens if one play, just one, in each of those three games against Beechwood, CovCath and Cooper goes another way and we get three different results, now all wins, an entirely plausible scenario but of course in hindsight. How is Gregg then evaluated in the new context? A little bit differently I would imagine. Either way, it's an interesting question. And so is this: What do you propose to do with Anderson and Mutongwiza with Gregg hogging carries at RB?

I would not move Gregg out of the QB position, but that's me. Lots of people here have coached longer than I've ever coached but you would be surprised at how many northern Kentucky high school football games I've seen in my lifetime, which I think qualifies me just a little bit to wade in here. But I'm not an expert of any kind, I don't think. All in all, I admit this is an intriguing argument so New Colonel deserves some credit for tossing it out there.

But again, in the Gregg to RB scenario, I would love to hear what you do with Anderson and Mutongwiza as a result. Nobody has addressed that yet. Also, do you think putting Gregg at RB would expose Dixie in any way at QB against their brutal schedule loaded with coaches who will know how to roast the first year starting QB? Also, would the Dixie O-line be up to the task of protecting their inexperienced QB? And what are the chances the whole thing goes off the rails early and Dixie puts Gregg back at QB to right the ship? And would that be too late?

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@Crazy Legs that is a great post. The fall will be interesting to see how everything plays out and how players are used. 
 

If you look at the stats through 11 games Gregg’s stats aren’t much different than the QB from Highlands last year. Probably in the end at the HS level get your best dudes the ball as much as you can. Then after that it’s who has the most dudes or that extremely special dude. 

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1 hour ago, Crazy Legs said:

Good feedback. But I also feel like this might be an oversimplification.

The suggestion that Dixie might perform better with Gregg at RB particularly focusing on the correlation between the number of times he threw the ball and the team’s wins and losses is just too simple of an explanation within a very complex dynamic. The flaw in the argument lies in what some people call the correlation-causation fallacy. This occurs when an argument mistakenly assumes that just because two events occur together, one must be the cause of the other.

In this case the argument assumes that Gregg throwing the ball less leads to more Dixie wins because there is a correlation between fewer throws and victories. However, this does not consider other factors that could contribute to the wins such as the effectiveness of the running game, the performance of the defense or the quality of the opposition, ect.

Correlation does not imply causation. People in my field learn that fairly quickly but I realize it can be an esoteric understanding. Just because there is a correlation between the number of throws and losses, it doesn’t necessarily mean that throwing the ball more causes losses. Other factors could contribute to the outcome of the games. Plus, there is the incomplete information factor. The Gregg argument in part is based on a partial view of the statistics. It doesn’t thoroughly consider all contexts and variables like special teams play, turnovers, coaching decisions, that one blown coverage in an otherwise solid series, all of which can significantly impact the game’s result.

Additionally, Dixie did not win a close game all last year. The smallest victory margin was 25 points. However, Dixie lost to Beechwood by just 1 point in overtime and to CovCath and Cooper by just 7 both on the road, making the Gregg throwing argument's margin for error quite small. What happens if one play, just one, in each of those three games against Beechwood, CovCath and Cooper goes another way and we get three different results, now all wins, an entirely plausible scenario but of course in hindsight. How is Gregg then evaluated in the new context? A little bit differently I would imagine. Either way, it's an interesting question. And so is this: What do you propose to do with Anderson and Mutongwiza with Gregg hogging carries at RB?

I would not move Gregg out of the QB position, but that's me. Lots of people here have coached longer than I've ever coached but you would be surprised at how many northern Kentucky high school football games I've seen in my lifetime, which I think qualifies me just a little bit to wade in here. But I'm not an expert of any kind, I don't think. All in all, I admit this is an intriguing argument so New Colonel deserves some credit for tossing it out there.

But again, in the Gregg to RB scenario, I would love to hear what you do with Anderson and Mutongwiza as a result. Nobody has addressed that yet. Also, do you think putting Gregg at RB would expose Dixie in any way at QB against their brutal schedule loaded with coaches who will know how to roast the first year starting QB? Also, would the Dixie O-line be up to the task of protecting their inexperienced QB? And what are the chances the whole thing goes off the rails early and Dixie puts Gregg back at QB to right the ship? And would that be too late?

Everyone can improve. Maybe Gregg is better this year. Last year he was not effective enough throwing the ball. That is from seeing him in person, not just the stats.

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Here's another angle on moving Gregg to RB.  You keep Anderson as the feature back with Gregg getting 10 or so carries a game.  Now, you can move Gregg over to defense as a LB since I believe they lost all starters last year.?.?

Personally, I like Gregg at QB.  I think he's a better passer than what he's shown.  To me, he seems tight when he drops back to pass, like he's scared to overthrow or to throw a pick.  If he just cuts loose, I think you'll see his passing numbers increase.  However, I don't know who they really have to throw the ball to this year as they lost their primary threats from last year.

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