2 hours ago, nees1212 said:

Here's another angle on moving Gregg to RB.  You keep Anderson as the feature back with Gregg getting 10 or so carries a game.  Now, you can move Gregg over to defense as a LB since I believe they lost all starters last year.?.?

Personally, I like Gregg at QB.  I think he's a better passer than what he's shown.  To me, he seems tight when he drops back to pass, like he's scared to overthrow or to throw a pick.  If he just cuts loose, I think you'll see his passing numbers increase.  However, I don't know who they really have to throw the ball to this year as they lost their primary threats from last year.

I believe Anderson will play more at WR this year.

On 6/15/2024 at 2:37 PM, Crazy Legs said:

Having Highlands AND Cooper in your district plus neighboring CovCath nearby to snag some occasional players that might otherwise play for Dixie makes life tough too. Playing a nondistrict schedule of usually high scoring teams like Simon Kenton, CovCath, Ryle and Beechwood present obvious challenges for any defense. Dixie scored against pretty much everybody except Cooper during the regular season last year and offense hasn't really been a problem. It shouldn't be this year either with Armani Gregg at QB. Moving him to running back doesn't seem ideal when you've got two experienced and productive backs and inexperience behind Gregg in the QB room. 

The notion that a change can be made by moving Gregg to running back just because a backup QB might occasionally flash some accuracy in one person's opinion doesn't fully grasp the complexities needed to start at QB, which requires so much more than passing accuracy although that is obviously important. On the field of play against live defense while passing the eye test, Gregg completed 59% of his 191 passes last year while averaging 15.7 yards per completion. His backup completed 50 percent of 22 passes with an average completion length of 5.6 yards. Nobody else threw a pass at Dixie.

For Dixie to just suddenly hand the car keys to a backup with no backup with Gregg around after all that QB tutelage provided to Gregg seems counterintuitive at best, although anything's possible I guess. If Gregg gets 30+ carries at RB, that potentially makes him a significant injury risk and marginalizes a good RB in David Anderson in his senior season unless there's a plan to move Anderson to WR and pair him with Nolan Goetz, which seems like a risk. JJ Kriger has potential at WR so Anderson isn't necessarily needed there plus he can catch plenty of passes staying at RB.

In the moving parts scenario, now you have two of your best offensive skill players starting at entirely different positions in the same year, as seniors. Again, it's possible but not likely. Anderson averaged about 6.4 yards per carry last year with a nose for the end zone and ran for 857. They also have Lamiego Mutongwiza in the backfield. Anderson allows them to effectively use play action with Gregg who can get a bunch of carries staying right where he is. Anderson makes the defense honor the run. A new QB handing the ball off to a former QB 30 times a game doesn't have as much potential to fool a defense in my opinion. 

Dixie is becoming a tough place to win because they choose to make it more difficult to win which is commendable. Lots of coaches like to say they play a tough schedule but this is actually a fact at Dixie. I realize the KHSAA RPI is not an ideal measurement but if we just use that, Dixie's 9 Kentucky opponents last year had an RPI average of .579 which is like playing Cooper every week. Take out Boone County and Scott and Dixie's opponent RPI average jumps to .636 which would have been like playing Scott County for all but two games last year.

Realignment should help but not till 2025 when it'll be Dixie with Boone County, Conner, Cooper and Scott, which is one less bully in the district but should help at least from a statistical standpoint. The last two seasons Highlands has scored almost 15% of the points Dixie has given up: 150 in 3 games. 

That said, only 39 wins in nine seasons since that great 2014 with the state final game against Trinity isn't a lot of success. That's about 4 wins a year. And the defense has been a yearly issue now recently with the exception of 2021 which is looking like an outlier. Every year since 2016 with the exception of 2021 and 2019, they have given up more than 26 points per game. To be fair, they tightened the screws last year giving up about 26 points after giving up 40 per game in 2022. That's a big improvement but you would think with all the football players they usually have at Dixie that the defense could be better. After losing a tackling machine like Brach Rice and all those other top tacklers it's tough to be optimistic about the D this year but maybe they will surprise us with a bunch of inspired seniors. Another huge class of seniors for Dixie again: 24 this year after 20 last year. Good luck to the red Colonels.

Love the analysis, thanks.

On 6/16/2024 at 8:55 PM, Crazy Legs said:

Good feedback. But I also feel like this might be an oversimplification.

The suggestion that Dixie might perform better with Gregg at RB particularly focusing on the correlation between the number of times he threw the ball and the team’s wins and losses is just too simple of an explanation within a very complex dynamic. The flaw in the argument lies in what some people call the correlation-causation fallacy. This occurs when an argument mistakenly assumes that just because two events occur together, one must be the cause of the other.

In this case the argument assumes that Gregg throwing the ball less leads to more Dixie wins because there is a correlation between fewer throws and victories. However, this does not consider other factors that could contribute to the wins such as the effectiveness of the running game, the performance of the defense or the quality of the opposition, ect.

Correlation does not imply causation. People in my field learn that fairly quickly but I realize it can be an esoteric understanding. Just because there is a correlation between the number of throws and losses, it doesn’t necessarily mean that throwing the ball more causes losses. Other factors could contribute to the outcome of the games. Plus, there is the incomplete information factor. The Gregg argument in part is based on a partial view of the statistics. It doesn’t thoroughly consider all contexts and variables like special teams play, turnovers, coaching decisions, that one blown coverage in an otherwise solid series, all of which can significantly impact the game’s result.

Additionally, Dixie did not win a close game all last year. The smallest victory margin was 25 points. However, Dixie lost to Beechwood by just 1 point in overtime and to CovCath and Cooper by just 7 both on the road, making the Gregg throwing argument's margin for error quite small. What happens if one play, just one, in each of those three games against Beechwood, CovCath and Cooper goes another way and we get three different results, now all wins, an entirely plausible scenario but of course in hindsight. How is Gregg then evaluated in the new context? A little bit differently I would imagine. Either way, it's an interesting question. And so is this: What do you propose to do with Anderson and Mutongwiza with Gregg hogging carries at RB?

I would not move Gregg out of the QB position, but that's me. Lots of people here have coached longer than I've ever coached but you would be surprised at how many northern Kentucky high school football games I've seen in my lifetime, which I think qualifies me just a little bit to wade in here. But I'm not an expert of any kind, I don't think. All in all, I admit this is an intriguing argument so New Colonel deserves some credit for tossing it out there.

But again, in the Gregg to RB scenario, I would love to hear what you do with Anderson and Mutongwiza as a result. Nobody has addressed that yet. Also, do you think putting Gregg at RB would expose Dixie in any way at QB against their brutal schedule loaded with coaches who will know how to roast the first year starting QB? Also, would the Dixie O-line be up to the task of protecting their inexperienced QB? And what are the chances the whole thing goes off the rails early and Dixie puts Gregg back at QB to right the ship? And would that be too late?

In those close games Gregg pass yardage goes way down, he threw 4 picks in those 3 games and he averaged only 11 yards per completion.

He rushed 57 times in those 3 games for 342 yards and 5 TDs.  6 yards a rush against STOUT defenses proves he should be running the ball and his passing production isn't there when he faces equal or better competition.....but he can still run people over.

Look high school football is simple.  Run the ball and stop the run.  Dixie should be a team that absolutely pounds the ball and chews clock.  They'd have great success doing that.  Take my strongest kid out of QB position and have him punish the opposition on the ground.

It's supposed to be a team sport, put your team in the best position to win, and Gregg at RB does that IMO.

Awesome discussion by everyone though, good stuff.

46 minutes ago, New Colonel said:

 

It's supposed to be a team sport, put your team in the best position to win, and Gregg at RB does that IMO.

Totally agree with this.  He can run and run hard.  I think it makes Dixie a better team which I always want NKY to have great teams.

 

Gregg got a offer from TMC to play football next year.

It looks like the Anderson kid also received an offer from Thomas Moore. 

Bump.

It's been a while since there's been any activity on this thread.  

Any idea when the scrimmages are for Varsity?  Are they the same day as the Freshman schedule posted above?

14 minutes ago, New Colonel said:

It's been a while since there's been any activity on this thread.  

Any idea when the scrimmages are for Varsity?  Are they the same day as the Freshman schedule posted above?

It is for the 10th.  Varsity/JV will be on the game field while the freshman team will be on the practice field at West Clermont.  Varsity/JV will then scrimmage again on the 15th at Western Hills, I think.

Well, so much for getting literally anything out of your scrimmages.  

Why on God's green earth would you scrimmage two teams that are really, really bad?

1 minute ago, New Colonel said:

Well, so much for getting literally anything out of your scrimmages.  

Why on God's green earth would you scrimmage two teams that are really, really bad?

I know Burke likes to schedule scrimmages against Ohio teams, and he likely has relationships with coaches over there as the 7on7's were over there too.  As for the quality of those 2 programs, I have no clue.  However, with 3 of the first 4 games being SK, BW, and CovCath, he may have scheduled easier to help build the confidence of the line and defense as they have a lot of holes to fill.

 

 

11 minutes ago, nees1212 said:

I know Burke likes to schedule scrimmages against Ohio teams, and he likely has relationships with coaches over there as the 7on7's were over there too.  As for the quality of those 2 programs, I have no clue.  However, with 3 of the first 4 games being SK, BW, and CovCath, he may have scheduled easier to help build the confidence of the line and defense as they have a lot of holes to fill.

 

 

Thanks.  I can tell you, both of those teams are absolutely & painfully awful.  

10 minutes ago, New Colonel said:

Thanks.  I can tell you, both of those teams are absolutely & painfully awful.  

Then I really hope these scrimmages aren't close.  Lol

42 minutes ago, nees1212 said:

Then I really hope these scrimmages aren't close.  Lol

You and me both.