Covington Catholic at Highlands Predictions/Updates

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

22 hours ago, BlueKernels said:

I would say jury is still out. No improvement in the first two games he played in... however, that wasn't unexpected given he is a Soph. Better against Boone, though some underthrown passes were still cought by the WR's(one on a tipped ball). I think he will be much better the next two years with more experience, though I'm hoping the development speeds up and he hits his stride as the playoffs are starting!

I'm curious what your hallmarks for "improvement" are if you're saying our passing game showed no improvement in Pitzer's first two games. Pitzer stacks like another 25% onto Holtz's average passing yardage per game in those two games, he almost doubles his average on touchdown passes, and his pass receptions averaged out for 27% more yardage than Holtz's. That, and he wasn't intercepted in either game.

I'm not trying to rag on Holtz here, and I realize Pitzer wasn't perfect, but man, you're a tough guy to please. Week after week you whine about play calling and the fact that you thought we were too reliant on the screen, then a quarterback comes out and clearly puts out two better performances than the performances by the starting QB in the five weeks prior - verifiable by numbers - yet you still think the jury is out on whether or not having Pitzer in at quarterback helped Cov Cath?

[futurecoach]

Covcath wins this one by a few scores. Highlands then shocks everyone and wins the rematch that most likely takes place in the first round of the playoffs. 

[theguru]

Just now, futurecoach said:

Covcath wins this one by a few scores. Highlands then shocks everyone and wins in their probable first round matchup in the playoffs. 

No way!!

[NKYPrepSportsFan]

Realistically, for Highlands to have a chance, I think they'll need to go +2 in turnovers and need some magic on special teams. 

Highlands' offense just hasn't shown the ability to consistently move the ball against better teams, except for the long pass against mostly blown coverages. 

And, Highlands' defense has really struggled to stop a team from running the ball.  Adjustments will be needed... move another man up into the box... man up and/or mix coverages against the sophomore QB.  Make the sophomore QB beat you! 

 

[BlueKernels]

3 hours ago, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

I'm curious what your hallmarks for "improvement" are if you're saying our passing game showed no improvement in Pitzer's first two games. Pitzer stacks like another 25% onto Holtz's average passing yardage per game in those two games, he almost doubles his average on touchdown passes, and his pass receptions averaged out for 27% more yardage than Holtz's. That, and he wasn't intercepted in either game.

I'm not trying to rag on Holtz here, and I realize Pitzer wasn't perfect, but man, you're a tough guy to please. Week after week you whine about play calling and the fact that you thought we were too reliant on the screen, then a quarterback comes out and clearly puts out two better performances than the performances by the starting QB in the five weeks prior - verifiable by numbers - yet you still think the jury is out on whether or not having Pitzer in at quarterback helped Cov Cath?

I hope Pitzer continues to improve, however, if you look at the stats, his first game @ Cooper he had under 70 yards passing and an INT. Would have had same result with Holtz at QB. One could argue would have won the game without needing OT with Holtz in because he is a legit threat to run the ball. I commented to someone after the game that if Eddie wasn't going to throw the ball more why even make the switch? 

Next game for him was Boone, which was better for sure, but I don't put too much into it based on the oppenent. Of his 160 yards passing, 60 of them were on a badly thrown ball that was tipped by Mason and was then cought on the run by another WR for a TD. He did have some nice passes that were more downfield for sure, which was really nice to see. Definite optimism moving forward.

That's all we've really seen from Pitzer though, so I think it makes sense to say the jury is still out. It's not a knock at all on him, just realty based on what the team has done with him so far. I hope we continue to see improvement in him(I think we will) and in Eddie's decision to throw more intermediate to deeper routes as we approach the playoffs. 

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

4 hours ago, BlueKernels said:

I hope Pitzer continues to improve, however, if you look at the stats, his first game @ Cooper he had under 70 yards passing and an INT. Would have had same result with Holtz at QB. One could argue would have won the game without needing OT with Holtz in because he is a legit threat to run the ball. I commented to someone after the game that if Eddie wasn't going to throw the ball more why even make the switch? 

Next game for him was Boone, which was better for sure, but I don't put too much into it based on the opponent. Of his 160 yards passing, 60 of them were on a badly thrown ball that was tipped by Mason and was then caught on the run by another WR for a TD. He did have some nice passes that were more downfield for sure, which was really nice to see. Definite optimism moving forward.

That's all we've really seen from Pitzer though, so I think it makes sense to say the jury is still out. It's not a knock at all on him, just realty based on what the team has done with him so far. I hope we continue to see improvement in him(I think we will) and in Eddie's decision to throw more intermediate to deeper routes as we approach the playoffs. 

I've looked at the stats, believe me. And if you'll look at the stats, you'll see that Pitzer has not been intercepted yet. Preston Agee was put in at quarterback halfway through Cov Cath's second drive in the Cooper game and was intercepted by Jack Lonaker on his third play at QB. That turnover set up Cooper's first offensive touchdown.

As for passing, the KHSAA does show less than 70 yards passing by Pitzer against Cooper...he had 69 yards passing. (Although there's a 11 yard screen pass from Pitzer to Lenihan in the 2Q that doesn't appear in the stats on the KHSAA site, since Lenihan shows 0 receptions or yards receiving in the game.) Holtz has averaged 88 yards passing per game as a starter this season, so yes, in his first-ever varsity appearance, when he was brought in to start at quarterback, a sophomore had about 19 yards fewer passing than their senior quarterback was averaging. He made it up the next week.

Still, in Pitzer's second ever varsity play, he hit a split end on a 5 yard dig. That beats being reliant on screen passes, right? And then that drive stalled after Jones was handled by Cooper's freshman DE Alexander a couple of plays in a row (that kid is the real deal, for the record), however, one those two plays was a sack on a broken pass play. That's trying to throw the ball more, isn't it? There was also a play in the next Cov Cath drive where Pitzer stood right in the pocket and threw a bullet from the 32 yard line to Mason on the opposite 41, and the only reason that pass didn't work out was Cooper's defensive back making a perfect play on the ball to bat it down. Also, if you want to play the 'that one shouldn't have counted' game, then I'm gonna say that one should have counted, along with the 18 extra yards that Lenihan got after the push on the aforementioned screen play that was (incorrectly, in my opinion) brought back by the officials who said his forward progress was stopped at the 22 rather than whistling the play dead at the 4.

The fact is, Eddie tries different things. If they don't work out, he reverts to things that DO get yards. Maybe they aren't big "chunk plays," but even a half-yard gained beats an incomplete pass. @CCHFC is right, Pitzer is the better player at QB. Totally agree with him about seeing Pitzer work his way through the progressions. That just wasn't ever anything you consistently saw Holtz doing; he tucked the ball and tried to make yards happen on his own too readily, which also accounts for quite a few of Holtz's offensive rushing yards that were actually called as pass plays.

[Bluesport]

CCH will need to shore up their kickoff defense.

[uninformedexpert]

1 hour ago, Bluesport said:

CCH will need to shore up their kickoff defense.

Good week to do it.  Won't see anything confusing coming their way.  

[CCHFC]

On 10/11/2021 at 6:46 PM, Kenny Powers said:

@Colonels_Wear_Bluecan you give us some insight Into the CCH Oline/RBs? That will determine my prediction for how the game will go. 

Not CWB but I think the O-Line is good. Not elite, but certainly above average. Dietz is the best player at center and a mauler in the run game. Add in Trevor Wilson at TE and he looks and blocks like an extra OT and is definitely an advantage against most teams. 

The backs are ok. I think we really miss the presence of a bell cow back for the 2nd year in a row. Preston Agee is the best player on the team IMO and the best ball carrier as a wildcat QB. I’d imagine we’ll try to get him 15-20 touches Friday night. Very athletic, runs hard and good vision. He’s a very good player. 

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

[Jack of all Trades]

3 minutes ago, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

Nice work.  Never noticed how much CovCath helmets changed versus Highlands helmets.

[THUNDERBIRDS]

7 minutes ago, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

The 1988 Highlands headgear was Blank. The decals came in and were purple so they decided just tI leave them off. The “H” started in 1989

[dshoe40]

Is this game on anywhere

[MBKT]

28-17 Cov Cath wins. 

[DevilMayCare]

1 hour ago, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

Personally, when I think of Highlands vs. CovCath, I think of 1988-2010. I can't see it any other way. Great lids for both during that era, especially CCH.