Covington Catholic at Highlands Predictions/Updates

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

The Colonels knew they were up for a significant challenge when they released their 2021 football schedule. Opening the schedule with Elder at The Pit when you're trying to break in a new quarterback after graduating a second straight three-year QB was task enough, followed immediately by non-district games against Belfry, Lex Cath, and very strong Dixie and Beechwood teams. There were even comments here on BGP alluding to the schedule being "a bridge too far" and some nearly prophetic-seeming conjecture early on about how the team could "conceivably, start out the year 2-3."

The road to Highlands week has had its bumps and bruises for Cov Cath, but they're here, and they have a 4-3 record to show for it. The Colonels are 2-0 coming into their third game within 5A District 5, with a 39-6 win over Boone County on October 1st, and a 31-24 win in quadruple overtime over Cooper the week prior. Cov Cath also appears to have finally solved their quarterback identity crisis with the introduction of sophomore Evan Pitzer to the starting offensive team.

The Birds had their own bumps and bruises leading up to Cov Cath week, starting back on December 1st when they dismissed 7-year head coach Brian Weinrich, followed by a hire on January 9th, only to be jilted by their new-hire, and then a February 4th announcement that former Lexington Catholic head coach Bob Sphire would be returning from Georgia to Kentucky to coach the Bluebirds.

There was some immediate and obvious new life breathed into the Highlands football program with the announcement of the Sphire hire. "This guy is the real deal." "Looks like a very good hire for the Birds." "It will be an all-star staff." "If this doesn't get you excited in Ft. Thomas as a fan better yet a player, you need to do a little research on Coach Sphire." There was even a, "Is it too early to say.........WEEEEEEEE'RE BAAAAAACK!" here on BGP.

With the excitement about the program and around a letter of congratulations from Alabama Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban, the Birds fans were all smiles after heading down to WKU in Week 1 and beating the defending state champions from Bowling Green 21-18 in the Rafferty's Bowl, and then following that up with wins over Simon Kenton and Campbell County. But that was followed by a 4-week skid and losses to Cincy McNick, Ryle, Dixie, and a district loss to Conner before turning things back in the right direction with a 41-0 win over Boone County this past Friday in Florence.

This week is THE week of the program for both programs. This the biggest rivalry game of their careers for seniors at Highlands and Cov Cath, and its the first time we'll see the added wrinkle of player vs. coach thrown into the coaching scenario, when Cov Cath's Coach Eviston heads off against Coach Bob Sphire, who was formerly his own head coach while playing quarterback for Sphire's 2004 NIFL National Championship Lexington Horsemen team.

So, which team are you with, and what do you think we can expect to see this Friday in Fort Thomas?


RECENT SERIES RECORD:
2020: Covington Catholic 38-21 (Playoffs)
2020: Covington Catholic 42-0
2019: Covington Catholic 13-0
2018: Covington Catholic 36-0 (Playoffs)
2018: Covington Catholic 21-14
2017: Covington Catholic 52-0
2016: Covington Catholic 63-26
2015: Highlands 44-22 (Playoffs) 
2015: Highlands 14-10
2014: Highlands 37-34 (Playoffs)
2014: Highlands 42-7
2013: Highlands 28-13 (Playoffs)
2013: Highlands 42-6
2012: Highlands 28-13 (Playoffs)
2012: Highlands 35-21
2011: Highlands 49-14 (Playoffs)
2011: Highlands 42-37

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

[cincyswords]

Very strange W/L snapshot since 2011.  Never a back and forth and neither team has lost regular season then won playoff game. 

[FLYGUY]

Highlands loses. 

[Purple88]

1 hour ago, cincyswords said:

Very strange W/L snapshot since 2011.  Never a back and forth and neither team has lost regular season then won playoff game. 

I though the exact same thing.  Just a light bulb switched between the 2015 and 2016 season and hasn't turned back yet.  So when will it?  I picked CovCath in this game, but I picked BG in the opening game so what do I know.

[Tigerpride94]

I'll go with Covington Catholic by 7.

[TheDeuce]

Make it eight in a row for CovCath.

[Voice of Reason]

Highlands still seems uneven and working their way to find themselves under Sphire. I'll go with the Colonels.

[RunForest]

Colonels by 2 TD.  CovCath is a very good team. Lost to Elder, LexCath (in final moments), and Beechwood (which I believe they punked themselves out).

I would not be surprised if they didn't finish the regular season with 3 more wins, to finish 7-3.

CovCath looks to be getting settled in.

[Voice of Reason]

How has Pitzer at QB helped CCH? Statistically, he is completing passes at about the same rate as Holtz and one of Pitzer's 2 games was Boone County. Pitzer hasn't thrown and INT, which is very important. Sometimes it is intangibles. What did bringing in Pitzer do for CCH? Or is the jury still out?

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

On 10/11/2021 at 2:46 PM, Voice of Reason said:

How has Pitzer at QB helped CCH? Statistically, he is completing passes at about the same rate as Holtz and one of Pitzer's 2 games was Boone County. Pitzer hasn't thrown and INT, which is very important. Sometimes it is intangibles. What did bringing in Pitzer do for CCH? Or is the jury still out?

Having watched Evan on the freshman and JV levels prior to his move to varsity, he has significantly more accuracy downfield than Holtz does, and that has shown in the pass plays we ran against Boone County and Cooper. Most of Holtz's completed passes were screen passes and we were fairly sparse when it came to the number of times we took shots over the middle or downfield, whereas I would guess Pitzer has thrown at least 50-60% of his passes over the middle or downfield.

Holtz was starting QB in our first 5 games, and was 39-77 passing (50.6%) for 441 yards and 4 TDs passing. That's 88.2 yards and 0.6 touchdowns passing per game. He was intercepted 6 times for an average 1.2 interceptions per game. 39 completions for 441 yards averages out to 11.3 yards gained per completion.

Pitzer has started QB in 2 games now and is 16-30 passing (50.3%) for 231 yards and 2 TDs passing. That's 115.5 yards and 1 touchdown passing per game. He has not yet been intercepted. 16 completions for 231 yards averages out to 14.4 yards gained per completion.

[BlueKernels]

1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:

How has Pitzer at QB helped CCH? Statistically, he is completing passes at about the same rate as Holtz and one of Pitzer's 2 games was Boone County. Pitzer hasn't thrown and INT, which is very important. Sometimes it is intangibles. What did bringing in Pitzer do for CCH? Or is the jury still out?

I would say jury is still out. No improvement in the first two games he played in... however, that wasn't unexpected given he is a Soph. Better against Boone, though some underthrown passes were still cought by the WR's(one on a tipped ball). I think he will be much better the next two years with more experience, though I'm hoping the development speeds up and he hits his stride as the playoffs are starting!

 

 

[CCHFC]

3 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

How has Pitzer at QB helped CCH? Statistically, he is completing passes at about the same rate as Holtz and one of Pitzer's 2 games was Boone County. Pitzer hasn't thrown and INT, which is very important. Sometimes it is intangibles. What did bringing in Pitzer do for CCH? Or is the jury still out?

I think he’s a better player. He plays on time and is accurate underneath and on intermediate routes. He had some very nice seams throws layering the ball over the linebacker and in front of the safety against Boone. I can see him working through progressions too, which is nice to see. 

The downside is his arm is ok right now. If he’s late throwing a deep ball, it’s going to die and be short. So he has to be perfect with that timing. He probably needs an off-season or two to get there, but it feels like everything else is there to give him a pretty high ceiling. 

[Kenny Powers]

@Colonels_Wear_Bluecan you give us some insight Into the CCH Oline/RBs? That will determine my prediction for how the game will go. 

[GottaLuvFootball]

Won’t be surprised either way just because home-field.