Coronavirus

[Voice of Reason]

5 hours ago, DanvilleFan said:

If these numbers keep creeping up, then I think we could see a return to an earlier level of reopening.  I don't think anyone wants to get into another shutdown but it could occur.

The saving grace is the death rate is staying low. ICU bed usage is low. It has creeped up slightly over the last month but even with the escalating case counts medicine appears to have this under control as well as they can without a vaccine. If the serious illnesses and deaths stay low, the high case counts are not as concerning. With mandatory masks we should see case counts start dropping. If that happens, no reason not to keep moving forward with everything - economy, schools, sports, etc. All the pro sports are moving on and showing a good example of how to manage this and keep moving forward.

[MJAlltheWay24]

Seems like everyone knows someone that has a wacky story. Had a guy tell me today and he knows someone who went to go get tested for COVID-19, signed up for the test but after waiting 1.5 hours, decided to leave without getting tested. A week later, they get a notification that they tested positive when they were never tested.

Lots of stories out there from people who know of someone. Never hear it from the director source.

[Randy Parker]

I think Kentucky can expect some stricter guidelines to be put in place tomorrow. 

[00Rocket28]

2 minutes ago, Randy Parker said:

I think Kentucky can expect some stricter guidelines to be put in place tomorrow. 

Of course we can. And a week or two later, there will be more, and so forth and so on until we can not do anything and people are losing jobs again. I’ll be glad when it’s December.

[Beechwoodfan]

14 hours ago, 00Rocket28 said:

Of course we can. And a week or two later, there will be more, and so forth and so on until we can not do anything and people are losing jobs again. I’ll be glad when it’s December.

Will life be better in December?

[brown4]

16 hours ago, MJAlltheWay24 said:

Seems like everyone knows someone that has a wacky story. Had a guy tell me today and he knows someone who went to go get tested for COVID-19, signed up for the test but after waiting 1.5 hours, decided to leave without getting tested. A week later, they get a notification that they tested positive when they were never tested.

Lots of stories out there from people who know of someone. Never hear it from the director source.

I've heard that exact same story from at least 10 people.  I don't believe it for a second.  Until I hear it from a direct source, I just consider it not true.

That being said, I'm not taking the situation any less seriously and will continue to wear my mask when out in public.

[TheDeuce]

2 minutes ago, brown4 said:

I've heard that exact same story from at least 10 people.  I don't believe it for a second.  Until I hear it from a direct source, I just consider it not true.

It's a popular narrative among "non-believers." Extremely unlikely any of those stories are true. 

[Bluegrasscard]

On 7/22/2020 at 9:56 AM, Bluegrasscard said:

According to who? 

Here is the CDC count.  And it lags a good 2 to 3 weeks for full reporting. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

The trend has been down nationally.  The 7/18 week shows 336 deaths "involving" covid and 10, 577 total deaths.  That is about 1/5th the expected total deaths (should run around 50K a week based on chart).  So 5 times 336 is less than 2,000.  And that should keep the trend going down. 

 

 

Updated numbers out. 

I am using the week of 7/18 as a benchmark as to how numbers slowly come in at national level - at least this this measurement point. 

Week of 7/18 shows 2,373 COVID related deaths.  The percent of "expected (total) deaths" is up to 67%.  So extrapolating would lead to around 3,500 deaths total is where it looks like that week will land. 

The previous two weeks are now at 99 and 98 percent of total expected deaths so most the reporting for those weeks should be done.  There is an uptick.  Starting with 6/27 (the low mark since March) the numbers are now - 3,384, 3,689 and 3,814 progressively. 

If 7/18 and 7/25 come in below 4,000 then it would look like the fatality rate may have stabilized, regardless of the "cases".  And maybe that is the best it gets for now. 

For comparison the peak was 4/18 at almost 17,000 deaths per week nationally. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR1JB2ef0yMyVsrKhcXSyVh48jA1LssMmWjyVuCfSm_FwO1oiVwct6j9AuQ

 

 

 

[Randy Parker]

23 minutes ago, brown4 said:

I've heard that exact same story from at least 10 people.  I don't believe it for a second.  Until I hear it from a direct source, I just consider it not true.

That being said, I'm not taking the situation any less seriously and will continue to wear my mask when out in public.

 

20 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

It's a popular narrative among "non-believers." Extremely unlikely any of those stories are true. 

It's not the exact same scenario, but it's the same general idea.  Guy that didn't take a test for COVID is told by a contact tracer with the Tennessee State Health Department that he has tested positive.  Here's the link to the full story: https://www.wsmv.com/news/mt-juliet-man-says-even-with-no-test-he-s-informed-he-is-covid-19/article_f8cf60e6-c886-11ea-8ae0-4ffb48dc9a46.html

That said, I have heard from a handful of people some version of the story that MJ & brown4 stated.  That also said, I had a friend that tested positive and then got a second opinion and he tested negative for the virus & the antibodies.

In other words, not a small amount of inaccuracies all the way around.

[Bluegrasscard]

8 minutes ago, Randy Parker said:

 

It's not the exact same scenario, but it's the same general idea.  Guy that didn't take a test for COVID is told by a contact tracer with the Tennessee State Health Department that he has tested positive.  Here's the link to the full story: https://www.wsmv.com/news/mt-juliet-man-says-even-with-no-test-he-s-informed-he-is-covid-19/article_f8cf60e6-c886-11ea-8ae0-4ffb48dc9a46.html

That said, I have heard from a handful of people some version of the story that MJ & brown4 stated.  That also said, I had a friend that tested positive and then got a second opinion and he tested negative for the virus & the antibodies.

In other words, not a small amount of inaccuracies all the way around.

Truely a mess at this point. 

The stories of testing positive and then retesting negative seem to be growing.  Notable one of these does include race driver Jimmy Johnson. 

False positives and false negative issues seem to be coming to light and growing.  Anti-body testing as of May was acknowledged to be 50/50.  

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200717005397/en/CDC-Coronavirus-Test-Kits-Generate-30-False

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cdc-warns-that-half-of-coronavirus-antibody-test-results-are-wrong-2020-05-27/

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/half-of-cdc-coronavirus-test-kits-are-inaccurate-study-finds/ar-BB16S6M6

Per post above and discussions this weekend with those inside the industry there seems to be uptick or at best stabilization of those requiring treatment.  But it is definitely not an explosion at this point. 

[00Rocket28]

2 hours ago, Beechwoodfan said:

Will life be better in December?

I’m certain it will be lol.

[00Rocket28]

28 minutes ago, Bluegrasscard said:

Truely a mess at this point. 

The stories of testing positive and then retesting negative seem to be growing.  Notable one of these does include race driver Jimmy Johnson. 

False positives and false negative issues seem to be coming to light and growing.  Anti-body testing as of May was acknowledged to be 50/50.  

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200717005397/en/CDC-Coronavirus-Test-Kits-Generate-30-False

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cdc-warns-that-half-of-coronavirus-antibody-test-results-are-wrong-2020-05-27/

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/half-of-cdc-coronavirus-test-kits-are-inaccurate-study-finds/ar-BB16S6M6

Per post above and discussions this weekend with those inside the industry there seems to be uptick or at best stabilization of those requiring treatment.  But it is definitely not an explosion at this point. 

That and the fact some tests were sent out to be used, already contaminated with COVID-19. Further showing you can’t trust any of the numbers. The CDC botched the tests and yet people are still blindly believing...

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/cdc-coronavirus-test-kits-were-likely-contaminated-federal-review-confirms/2020/06/20/1ceb4e16-b2ef-11ea-8f56-63f38c990077_story.html

[MJAlltheWay24]

Not to belabor the point, but just heard it again.  Of course, not from the direct person that it happened to though.

[MJAlltheWay24]

Stand alone bars closed and restaurants back to 25% capacity for 2 weeks in KY.  Starts tomorrow at 5pm I believe. 

[00Rocket28]

23 minutes ago, MJAlltheWay24 said:

Stand alone bars closed and restaurants back to 25% capacity for 2 weeks in KY.  Starts tomorrow at 5pm I believe. 

2 weeks till gyms are shutdown again. But people at a higher risk of heart disease/stroke/diabetes than COVID will still be able to stuff their face with as much DoorDash fast food as their hearts desire.