BBN’s frustrations by the numbers

[Oldercoach]

Historically most of BBN thinks UK, Kansas and Duke have generally been regarded as the elite long-standing programs in college basketball.  Recently UConn, Gonzaga and others could be argued, but my research has been limited to the original three in the last 3 year and last 6 year seasons.  I had to include 6 seasons to find more than a token post-season appearance by UK.

Post-season games/record conference tourney and NCAA tourney:

Last 3:  Duke - 18 (5-2) and 8-3; Kansas - 17 (5-2) and 8-2; UK 8 (1-3) and 1-3.

Last 6:  Duke - 27 (10-2) and 11-4; Kansas - 25 (8-3) and 10-4; UK - 15 (2-5) and 4-4.

Total season and post-season victories and winning %:

Last 3:  Kansas - 85 77.3%;  Duke - 86 77.5%;  UK - 71 70.3%.

Last 6:  Kansas - 170 78.7%; Duke - 156 76.5%; UK - 135 69.6%.

Post-season winning %:

Duke - 77.8%; Kansas - 72.0%; UK- 40.0%.

 

Early on Coach Calipari announced he ran a players first program and in so many words he inferred his program would focus on preparing and getting players to the NBA.  Mission accomplished with a google search revealing season opening rosters and 2- way contracts with Ky having 26 players, Duke with 24, and Kansas with 13.  It just hasn’t found our Cats being cohesive teams by the end of the season when it matters most (subjective, I know) and most of us assumed that his program would produce tourney victories and banners, which it has not for a very long time.  BBN frustrations were well earned.

[futurecoach]

6 hours ago, Oldercoach said:

Historically most of BBN thinks UK, Kansas and Duke have generally been regarded as the elite long-standing programs in college basketball.  Recently UConn, Gonzaga and others could be argued, but my research has been limited to the original three in the last 3 year and last 6 year seasons.  I had to include 6 seasons to find more than a token post-season appearance by UK.

Post-season games/record conference tourney and NCAA tourney:

Last 3:  Duke - 18 (5-2) and 8-3; Kansas - 17 (5-2) and 8-2; UK 8 (1-3) and 1-3.

Last 6:  Duke - 27 (10-2) and 11-4; Kansas - 25 (8-3) and 10-4; UK - 15 (2-5) and 4-4.

Total season and post-season victories and winning %:

Last 3:  Kansas - 85 77.3%;  Duke - 86 77.5%;  UK - 71 70.3%.

Last 6:  Kansas - 170 78.7%; Duke - 156 76.5%; UK - 135 69.6%.

Post-season winning %:

Duke - 77.8%; Kansas - 72.0%; UK- 40.0%.

 

Early on Coach Calipari announced he ran a players first program and in so many words he inferred his program would focus on preparing and getting players to the NBA.  Mission accomplished with a google search revealing season opening rosters and 2- way contracts with Ky having 26 players, Duke with 24, and Kansas with 13.  It just hasn’t found our Cats being cohesive teams by the end of the season when it matters most (subjective, I know) and most of us assumed that his program would produce tourney victories and banners, which it has not for a very long time.  BBN frustrations were well earned.

Calipari has not produced in the last 4 years, no one can really argue that. Basically ever since covid cancelled the post season, when he had a team that won the SEC by 4 games. Ever since that year it went down hill. Basically covid seemed to be the end of his good run here, and the beginning of the bad. 

[TheDeuce]

Do people think Mark Pope is going to win more than that?

[gchs_uk9]

28 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

Do people think Mark Pope is going to win more than that?

To me, 75% is a reasonable expectation for Kentucky. That's 23 or 24 regular season wins. Rupp and Pitino were way above that, Calipari was just above, and Tubby was right on the number. Hall was actually under 75%. Will Pope hit that number? Who knows. If he doesn't, he'll likely meet a fate a similar to Sutton and Gillespie.

I'll still say its all about postseason success. Had Calipari went deeper in the SEC or NCAA tournaments over the last four years he'd still be in Lexington. He didn't, and now he's in Fayetteville. I have no idea if Pope will advance deeper, but if he has the same postseason results as Cal over the last four years, he'll probably be gone.

[FrankNicodemus]

32 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

Do people think Mark Pope is going to win more than that?

Time will tell....What I can tell you is there is a new found energy level that I haven't felt in 10 years around the program.  But like everything in Sports, you have to win.....  I think Pope knows that more than anyone that would have walked in to the door being the Head Coach.

[Oldercoach]

21 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

Do people think Mark Pope is going to win more than that?

Maybe or maybe not, but after going to great expense to travel and support the team, BBN rightly expected more than token preparation for the SEC tourney and to not be so obviously out-coached in the NCAAs.  Cal has shown an undeniable ability to recruit top-flight talent and coach them to disappointing year end results.  Probably finally sealed his credibility this year after his  “this team is built for March” comments that were followed by a  1st round loss in SEC tourney and a 1st round loss in NCAA tourney.  Remembering the definition of insanity, it was time to take Cal’s hard headedness elsewhere.

[Oldercoach]

12 minutes ago, gchs_uk9 said:

To me, 75% is a reasonable expectation for Kentucky. That's 23 or 24 regular season wins. Rupp and Pitino were way above that, Calipari was just above, and Tubby was right on the number. Hall was actually under 75%. Will Pope hit that number? Who knows. If he doesn't, he'll likely meet a fate a similar to Sutton and Gillespie.

I'll still say its all about postseason success. Had Calipari went deeper in the SEC or NCAA tournaments over the last four years he'd still be in Lexington. He didn't, and now he's in Fayetteville. I have no idea if Pope will advance deeper, but if he has the same postseason results as Cal over the last four years, he'll probably be gone.

As to your 1st paragraph, got to go way past 6 years to get Cal’s aggregate winning % up to anywhere near 75%.  Added to BBN’s disappointment is the fact that annually Cal had one of, if not, the top rated recruiting classes in the country.

Agree 100% with your 2nd paragraph.

[TheDeuce]

46 minutes ago, gchs_uk9 said:

To me, 75% is a reasonable expectation for Kentucky. That's 23 or 24 regular season wins. Rupp and Pitino were way above that, Calipari was just above, and Tubby was right on the number. Hall was actually under 75%. Will Pope hit that number? Who knows. If he doesn't, he'll likely meet a fate a similar to Sutton and Gillespie.

I'll still say its all about postseason success. Had Calipari went deeper in the SEC or NCAA tournaments over the last four years he'd still be in Lexington. He didn't, and now he's in Fayetteville. I have no idea if Pope will advance deeper, but if he has the same postseason results as Cal over the last four years, he'll probably be gone.

 

44 minutes ago, FrankNicodemus said:

Time will tell....What I can tell you is there is a new found energy level that I haven't felt in 10 years around the program.  But like everything in Sports, you have to win.....  I think Pope knows that more than anyone that would have walked in to the door being the Head Coach.

 

36 minutes ago, Oldercoach said:

Maybe or maybe not, but after going to great expense to travel and support the team, BBN rightly expected more than token preparation for the SEC tourney and to not be so obviously out-coached in the NCAAs.  Cal has shown an undeniable ability to recruit top-flight talent and coach them to disappointing year end results.  Probably finally sealed his credibility this year after his  “this team is built for March” comments that were followed by a  1st round loss in SEC tourney and a 1st round loss in NCAA tourney.  Remembering the definition of insanity, it was time to take Cal’s hard headedness elsewhere.

I understand that Cal "under achieved" the last handful of years, but I just think that the people that pushed him out are going to look silly when Pope is no better, if not worse. 

Pope is not going to get the quality of players Cal did, he's just not. That being the case, you'd have to argue that he's a better coach than Cal. Can you really do that? What about his resume says that's the case? Pope has zero hardware in his trophy case. 

This feels like a serious case of "be careful what you wish for." Pope feels good to some, for now, but how long will that last? 

[futurecoach]

29 minutes ago, Oldercoach said:

As to your 1st paragraph, got to go way past 6 years to get Cal’s aggregate winning % up to anywhere near 75%.  Added to BBN’s disappointment is the fact that annually Cal had one of, if not, the top rated recruiting classes in the country.

Agree 100% with your 2nd paragraph.

 

40 minutes ago, Oldercoach said:

Maybe or maybe not, but after going to great expense to travel and support the team, BBN rightly expected more than token preparation for the SEC tourney and to not be so obviously out-coached in the NCAAs.  Cal has shown an undeniable ability to recruit top-flight talent and coach them to disappointing year end results.  Probably finally sealed his credibility this year after his  “this team is built for March” comments that were followed by a  1st round loss in SEC tourney and a 1st round loss in NCAA tourney.  Remembering the definition of insanity, it was time to take Cal’s hard headedness elsewhere.

If any fan had an issue with the results by Cal up until Covid hit, then I am not sure what more a fan base could want from a coach. Up until Covid hit, Cal was doing exactly what a fanbase should want from a coach. Now after the covid ended the one post season, after that it was definitely not what is expected here at UK. The last 4 years were bad, let's not act like it was a lot of year where it was bad under him. 

[futurecoach]

6 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

 

 

I understand that Cal "under achieved" the last handful of years, but I just think that the people that pushed him out are going to look silly when Pope is no better, if not worse. 

Pope is not going to get the quality of players Cal did, he's just not. That being the case, you'd have to argue that he's a better coach than Cal. Can you really do that? What about his resume says that's the case? Pope has zero hardware in his trophy case. 

This feels like a serious case of "be careful what you wish for." Pope feels good to some, for now, but how long will that last? 

People always seem to get that Cal was winning at a great clip and having post season success long before he ever came to UK and had rosters full of one and done at UK. Before he was at UK he was winning with rosters that weren't full of NBA talent.  So he must be a lot better of a coach than some on here want to give him credit for, since it was successful long before he even came to UK. It is a reason why he along with Pitino are the only two coaches to take three teams to a final four. 

[TheDeuce]

1 minute ago, futurecoach said:

People always seem to get that Cal was winning at a great clip and having post season success long before he ever came to UK and had rosters full of one and done. So he must be a lot better of a coach than some on here want to give him credit for, since it was successful long before he even came to UK. It is a reason why he along with Pitino are the only two coaches to take three teams to a final four. 

Completely agree. 

It's much easier to win with a starting five full of seniors than it is with freshman, regardless of how many stars they had coming out of high school. Cal doesn't get enough credit for that. 

[Oldercoach]

36 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

Completely agree. 

It's much easier to win with a starting five full of seniors than it is with freshman, regardless of how many stars they had coming out of high school. Cal doesn't get enough credit for that. 

Valid and well made points.  But a 33.3% postseason winning rate over last 3 seasons and a 40% postseason winning % over last six pretty clearly evidences something needed to change.  Cal clearly admitted he wasn’t going to change how he did things.  

[futurecoach]

1 hour ago, Oldercoach said:

Valid and well made points.  But a 33.3% postseason winning rate over last 3 seasons and a 40% postseason winning % over last six pretty clearly evidences something needed to change.  Cal clearly admitted he wasn’t going to change how he did things.  

Continuing to say 40% postseason winning % over the last 6 post seasons is very misleading. One of those post season's didn't even happen because it was cancelled. Which that was the year UK won the SEC by a record 4 games. The year before covid cancelled the post season, UK made the elite 8 and lost in OT. At the end of the day Calipari was very successful in terms of tournament play up until Covid. The last 4 seasons were bad though, so no argument there. 

[Voice of Reason]

3 hours ago, TheDeuce said:

Do people think Mark Pope is going to win more than that?

YES! He will be close on the regular season and definitely better in the postseason.

[TheDeuce]

3 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

YES! He will be close on the regular season and definitely better in the postseason.

Based on what? His post-season success to date?