Coronavirus

[Bluegrasscard]

The bold is not true. I posted a link to a study that says actually the opposite is true. There are more lifestyle caused deaths when everyone is working than in a depression. Suicide is the only category that shows an increase in a depression and even that is not nearly as much as you might expect.

 

I am going by the statistic of 40,000 for each 1% of unemployment with 5% being the wildly optimistic low number. So, 200,000 is the low estimate of excess-mortality due to economic factors of the situation. My point these are now committed and will get worse if we go into a 30s style depression. If we go another 5% (around 14%) total UE then we are looking at 400,000.

 

Trading a medical-driven death for an economic-driven death is probably not a good discussion and this is not just a numbers discussion. Its comparing a path of increased medical risks to a path that has definite consequences that could alter the makeup of society and its entire structure well into the next few decades.

[hoops5]

I’m checking out of the CV discussions. I can’t tolerate people disregarding so many others health and trying to justify it with the economy.

 

Be better people.

Team Deuce

I don't care about marriages lasting, 401k plans dropping, and the stock market.

I want my 5 to survive and see the other side.

[mcpapa]

Team Deuce

I don't care about marriages lasting, 401k plans dropping, and the stock market.

I want my 5 to survive and see the other side.

I’m with you. We were scheduled to see our second granddaughter for the first time next week. I’d very much like to do that before I check out.

[mcpapa]

I miss Habib.

[Voice of Reason]

You posted a link about a study done during the Great Depression, correct? People during those days had a hell of a lot more resolve than we do in this society.

Was black tar heroin, alcohol, cocaine, etc as prevalent as they are today?

People during those days had a better ability to provide for themselves even without a job. 1920's society isn't remotely close to 2020's society.

 

Money and finances are one of the leading reasons for divorce. If unemployment gets in the 20% range then there are going to be a lot of busted up relationships and broken families.

 

I hope everyone has the power to deal with this if things go down hill.

 

The quality of life today as a whole is light years better than it was in the Great Depression. There is one factor today that impacts this - the types of jobs people have. In the Great Depression the jobs people worked were higher risk than they are today. Thus, going back to work in the Great Depression was much riskier than it is today and I am sure added to the fact that working caused more deaths than not working.

 

Still, here is a link to another story about a recent study that says unemployment during a recession decreases mortality.

 

Study: Recessions, unemployment and mortality rates - Business Insider

 

I am not buying deaths caused by recession and unemployment being anywhere close to deaths by unmitigated virus. It is a talking point that is probably being spread on social media like "falsebook" (I should trademark that one).

[hoops5]

@Voice of Reason

 

”Falsebook” :lol2:

[Kentucky Windage]

The quality of life today as a whole is light years better than it was in the Great Depression. There is one factor today that impacts this - the types of jobs people have. In the Great Depression the jobs people worked were higher risk than they are today. Thus, going back to work in the Great Depression was much riskier than it is today and I am sure added to the fact that working caused more deaths than not working.

 

Still, here is a link to another story about a recent study that says unemployment during a recession decreases mortality.

 

Study: Recessions, unemployment and mortality rates - Business Insider

 

I am not buying deaths caused by recession and unemployment being anywhere close to deaths by unmitigated virus. It is a talking point that is probably being spread on social media like "falsebook" (I should trademark that one).

 

I'd agree. We've come a long way since the 1920/30's job safety standards. I still don't think you can definitively use Great Depression morality rates to apply for what may lie in front of us today.

[catholicdude]

Just saw this article about the sectional basketball tournament in Indiana. 5 deaths and numerous others were possibly infected that night and this was when there was only 1 reported case in the state.

 

Coronavirus deaths followed Indiana basketball sectional

[gametime]

I am going by the statistic of 40,000 for each 1% of unemployment with 5% being the wildly optimistic low number. So, 200,000 is the low estimate of excess-mortality due to economic factors of the situation. My point these are now committed and will get worse if we go into a 30s style depression. If we go another 5% (around 14%) total UE then we are looking at 400,000.

 

Trading a medical-driven death for an economic-driven death is probably not a good discussion and this is not just a numbers discussion. Its comparing a path of increased medical risks to a path that has definite consequences that could alter the makeup of society and its entire structure well into the next few decades.

 

Dead people can't reenter the workforce, so there is that.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

Since Kentucky's first reported case of COVID-19, here's a comparison of how the Kentucky numbers compare to things nationally. There should be some lag, by nature, because the United States' index case was confirmed on January 15th and Kentucky' index case was confirmed 50 days later on March 6th.

 

March 6

KY - 1 case; 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 214 cases; 15 deaths (7.01% mortality rate)

 

March 7

KY - 1 case (00.00% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 279 cases (30.37% increase); 19 deaths (6.81% mortality rate)

March 8

KY - 4 cases (300.00% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 423 cases (51.61% increase); 22 deaths (5.20% mortality rate)

March 9

KY - 6 cases (50.00% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 647 cases (52.96% increase); 26 deaths (4.02% mortality rate)

March 10

KY - 8 cases (33.33% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 937 cases (44.82% increase); 30 deaths (3.20% mortality rate)

 

March 11

KY - 8 cases (0.00% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 1215 cases (29.67% increase); 38 deaths (3.13% mortality rate)

March 12

KY - 11 cases (37.50% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 1629 cases (34.07% increase); 41 deaths (2.52% mortality rate)

March 13

KY - 14 cases (27.27% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 1896 cases (16.39% increase); 48 deaths (2.53% mortality rate)

 

March 14

KY - 16 cases (14.29% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 2234 cases (17.83% increase); 57 deaths (2.55% mortality rate)

March 15

KY - 20 cases (25.00% increase); 0 deaths (0% mortality rate)

US - 3487 cases (56.09% increase); 69 deaths (1.98 mortality rate)

March 16

KY - 22 cases (10.00% increase); 1 death (4.55% mortality rate)

US - 4226 cases (21.19% increase); 87 deaths (2.06% mortality rate)

 

March 17

KY - 26 cases (18.18% increase); 1 death (3.85% mortality rate)

US - 7038 cases (66.54% increase); 110 deaths (1.56% mortality rate)

March 18

KY - 35 cases (34.62% increase); 1 death (2.56% mortality rate)

US - 10442 cases (48.37% increase); 150 deaths (1.44% mortality rate)

 

March 19

KY - 40 cases (14.29% increase); 2 deaths (5.00% mortality rate)

US - 15219 cases (45.75% increase); 206 deaths (1.35% mortality rate)

March 20

KY - 48 cases (20.00% increase); 3 deaths (6.25% mortality rate)

US - 18747 cases (23.18% increase); 255 deaths (1.35% mortality rate)

March 21

KY - 63 cases (31.25% increase); 3 deaths (4.76% mortality rate)

US - 24583 cases (31.13% increase); 301 deaths (1.22% mortality rate)

March 22

KY - 99 cases (57.14% increase); 3 deaths (3.03% mortality rate)

US - 33404 cases (35.88% increase); 400 deaths (1.19% mortality rate)

March 23

KY - 124 cases (25.25% increase); 4 deaths (3.23% mortality rate)

US - 44183 cases (32.27% increase); 544 deaths (1.23% mortality rate)

March 24

KY - 163 cases (31.45% increase); 4 deaths (2.45% mortality rate)

US - 54453 cases (23.24% increase); 737 deaths (1.35% mortality rate)

March 25

KY - 198 cases (21.47% increase); 5 deaths (2.52% mortality rate)

US - 68440 cases (25.69% increase); 994 deaths (1.45% mortality rate)

 

March 26

KY - 248 cases (25.25% increase); 5 deaths (2.01% mortality rate)

US - 85356 cases (24.72% increase); 1246 deaths (1.46% mortality rate)

March 27

KY - 302 cases (21.77% increase); 7 deaths (2.32% mortality rate)

US - 103321 cases (21.05% increase); 1668 deaths (1.61% mortaility rate)

 

March 28

KY - 394 cases (30.46% increase); 7 deaths (1.78% mortality rate)

US - 122653 cases (18.71% increase); 2112 deaths (1.72% mortality rate)

 

March 29

KY - 439 cases (11.42% increase); 8 deaths (1.82% mortality rate)

US - 140904 cases (14.88% increase); 2405 deaths (1.71% mortality rate)

 

March 30

KY - 480 cases (9.34% increase); 11 deaths (2.29% mortality rate)

US - 163539 cases (16.06% increase); 2860 deaths (1.75% mortality rate)

 

March 31

KY - 591 cases (23.13% increase); 17 deaths (2.88% mortality rate)

US - 186101 cases (13.80% increase); 3603 deaths (1.94% mortality rate)

 

April 1

KY - 680 cases (15.06% increase); 20 deaths (2.94% mortality rate)

US - 213144 cases (14.53% increase); 4512 deaths (2.12% mortality rate)

 

April 2

KY - 780 cases (14.71% increase); 31 deaths (3.97% mortality rate)

US - 239279 cases (12.26% increase); 5443 deaths (2.27% mortality rate)

 

April 3

KY - 831 cases (6.54% increase); 37 deaths (4.45% mortality rate)

US - 277205 cases (15.85% increase); 6893 deaths (2.49% mortality rate)

 

April 4

KY - 917 cases (10.35% increase); 40 deaths (4.36% mortality rate)

US - 304826 cases (9.96% increase); 7616 deaths (2.50% mortality rate)

 

April 5

KY - 955 cases (4.14% increase); 45 deaths (4.71% mortality rate)

US - 330891 cases (8.55% increase); 8910 deaths (2.96% mortality rate)

 

April 6

KY - 1008 cases (5.55% increase); 59 deaths (5.85% mortality rate)

US - 374329 cases (13.13% increase); 12064 deaths (3.22% mortality rate)

 

April 7

KY - 1149 cases (13.99% increase); 65 deaths (5.66% mortality rate)

US - 395011 cases (5.53% increase); 12754 deaths (3.23% mortality rate)

 

April 8

KY - 1346 cases (17.15% increase); 73 deaths (5.42% mortality rate)

US - 427460 cases (8.21% increase); 14696 deaths (3.44% mortality rate)

 

April 9

KY - 1452 cases (7.88% increase); 79 deaths (5.44% mortality rate)

US - 459165 cases (7.42% increase); 16752 deaths (3.65% mortality rate)

 

April 10

KY - 1694 cases (16.67% increase); 90 deaths (5.31% mortality rate)

US - 492416 cases (7.24% increase); 18559 deaths (3.77% mortality rate)

 

April 11

KY - 1840 cases (8.62% increase); 94 deaths (5.11% mortality rate)

US - 525704 cases (6.76% increase); 20468 deaths (3.89% mortality rate)

 

April 12

KY - 1963 cases (6.68% increase); 97 deaths (4.94% mortality rate)

US - 554849 cases (5.54% increase); 21942 deaths (3.95% mortality rate)

 

April 13

KY - 2048 cases (4.33% increase); 104 deaths (5.08% mortality rate)

US - 579005 case (4.35% increase); 22252 deaths (3.84% mortality rate)

 

April 14

KY - 2210 cases (7.91% increase); 115 deaths (5.20% mortality rate)

US - 605390 cases (4.56% increase); 24582 deaths (4.06% mortality rate)

 

April 15

KY - 2291 cases (3.67% increase); 122 deaths (5.33% mortality rate)

US - 632548 cases (4.49% increase); 31071 deaths (4.91% mortality rate)

 

April 16

KY - 2429 cases (6.02% increase); 129 deaths (5.31% mortality rate)

US - 661712 cases (4.61% increase); 33049 deaths (4.99% mortality rate)

 

April 17

KY - 2522 cases (3.83% increase); 137 deaths (5.43% mortality rate)

US - 690714 cases (4.38% increase); 35443 deaths (5.13% mortality rate)

 

April 18

KY - 2707 cases (7.34% increase); 144 deaths (5.32% mortality rate)

US - 720630 cases (4.33% increase); 37202 deaths (5.16% mortality rate)

 

April 19

KY - 2960 cases (9.35% increase); 148 deaths (5.00% morality rate)

US - TBD

 

DATA SOURCES:

United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

 

Kentucky Department of Public Health https://govstatus.egov.com/kycovid19

[theguru]

I see the Safer at Home order in Tennessee will expire on April 30 and most businesses should reopen on May 1.

 

The article also mentioned Tennessee has 150 deaths as of this afternoon.

[coldweatherfan]

I know you can't do a direct extrapolation, but if this blind test is even close it means that around 12,000 of the 40,000 in Chelsea have had CV-19. Their current positive tests is 712 with 39 deaths.

 

One third of people in Massachusetts study tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies | Daily Mail Online

 

A THIRD of participants in Massachusetts study test positive for antibodies linked to COVID-19 after giving their blood samples in the street at random

 

Study was done by physicians at the Massachusetts General Hospital in Chelsea

They collected blood from 200 people in Bellingham Square this week

One third of study participants - or 64 people - had COVID-19 antibodies

Results indicate that participants previously had COVID-19

None of the 200 participants received test results due to anonymity

Chelsea had the highest rate of COVID-19 cases in the state

Physicians hope to place a medical tent outside the Mass. General Chelsea Healthcare Center to conduct more antibodies test

[theguru]

I know you can't do a direct extrapolation, but if this blind test is even close it means that around 12,000 of the 40,000 in Chelsea have had CV-19. Their current positive tests is 712 with 39 deaths.

 

One third of people in Massachusetts study tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies | Daily Mail Online

 

This study is more ammunition for getting on with life.

[Hellcats]

I see the Safer at Home order in Tennessee will expire on April 30 and most businesses should reopen on May 1.

 

The article also mentioned Tennessee has 150 deaths as of this afternoon.

 

Coronavirus stats I don’t believe:

 

1. China

2. Iran

3. Tennessee

 

Nearly triple the cases of KY but the same amount of deaths.

[coldweatherfan]

Coronavirus stats I don’t believe:

 

1. China

2. Iran

3. Tennessee

 

Nearly triple the cases of KY but the same amount of deaths.

 

Maybe Kentucky also has triple the cases that they think they have.