Track The NL Central Champion Reds (Week 14)

[SSC]

The three best offenses in the NL, in terms of runs scored, are the Reds, Cardinals and Diamondbacks.

 

Cincinnati has scored three or less runs 33 times. The Cardinals and Diamondbacks are at 34 apiece.

 

NL West skews the numbers some for the D-Backs a bit wouldn't you say? The Cards aren't that good either. That isn't the point though. People wanted to blame the Reds struggles solely on the pitching earlier in the year and clearly that isn't and wasn't the case.

[newarkcatholicfan]

Frank H. the former starter in the Inidan farm system looked good today.

 

Sadly it appears my favorite Indian Tony Sipp is starting to struggle.

[AverageJoesGym]

The staff isn't supposed to be stellar. It isn't the Phillies. They need above average pitching and they've for the most part had that after Cueto came back. I love people still touting year long offensive numbers. Far too many times they score 3 or less. The Yankees series last week is a perfect example of what you get with this offense. 2 terrible games and a 10 run outburst so the series numbers are good, but the o wasn't good that series.

 

Let's break this down. The runs scored per game average in the NL is 4.11. For the season the Reds have scored (counting today's 3-1 loss) 3 runs or less in 34 games. The have scored right at the league average (4 runs) in 11 games and they have scored above 4 runs in 39 games. Sure, the offense has been inconsistent but pitching has not even been average. They had a good month of June but that is it. You would expect the Reds to have a losing record when scoring less than 3 runs, right? They do, in fact their record is awful. The Reds are 7-27 in games where they score 3 runs or less. Those numbers tell me that the pitching staff has not been able to match the other team's pitchers in close games. Let's look further, in games that they socre the league average of 4 runs the Reds are only 4-7. It would stand to reason that if they had an average pitching staff then they'd be .500 in those games. In games where the offense has been above average and the Reds have scored 5 runs or more they are 31-8. That means that they have a winning percentage of .795 when the offense does better than the league average. In games where the offense scores the league average or below the winning percentage is .244. Sure, this team has an inconsistent offense but their pitching staff seems to be incapable of winning in a pitcher's duel as well. A lot of that goes back to having the 2nd worst rate of walks and homers allowed. At this point this is a .500 team.

[SSC]

Let's break this down. The runs scored per game average in the NL is 4.11. For the season the Reds have scored (counting today's 3-1 loss) 3 runs or less in 34 games. The have scored right at the league average (4 runs) in 11 games and they have scored above 4 runs in 39 games. Sure, the offense has been inconsistent but pitching has not even been average. They had a good month of June but that is it. You would expect the Reds to have a losing record when scoring less than 3 runs, right? They do, in fact their record is awful. The Reds are 7-27 in games where they score 3 runs or less. Those numbers tell me that the pitching staff has not been able to match the other team's pitchers in close games. Let's look further, in games that they socre the league average of 4 runs the Reds are only 4-7. It would stand to reason that if they had an average pitching staff then they'd be .500 in those games. In games where the offense has been above average and the Reds have scored 5 runs or more they are 31-8. That means that they have a winning percentage of .795 when the offense does better than the league average. In games where the offense scores the league average or below the winning percentage is .244. Sure, this team has an inconsistent offense but their pitching staff seems to be incapable of winning in a pitcher's duel as well. A lot of that goes back to having the 2nd worst rate of walks and homers allowed. At this point this is a .500 team.

 

So we're admitting the offense has been average or below average 45 times out of 84 games even though they play in a park that historically favors offense in a big way? I expected the pitching to struggle when both Cueto and Bailey were out. Even though Bailey missed time again it is my belief that the pitching has been what you would expect after they returned. I would love to know the breakdown of 3 or 4 runs or less since the Pirates sweep of the two gamer in Cincy before the disasterous road trip too.

 

And in all honesty I didn't expect them to win a bunch of pitching duels coming into the year. They dont have a dominating staff. They have good pitchers not great although Cueto may be making the leap. Your stats are backingup my point. This team needs to score 5 runs more. It would help if Janish wasn't atrocious. I would guess their winning percentage is far less tis year when they get a quality start than what it was las year, but I'm guessing.

[AverageJoesGym]

Shouldn't they be winning about 1/3 of the games when the offense is below average? And half the games when the offense is average? This is a year when pitching is dominating in the league. An above average offense + a poor pitching staff = a .500 ballclub. The offense is no more to blame than the pitching. You tout the offense scoring average or below average in 45 out of 84 games....isn't it also true that the offense has scored above average in 50 out of 84 games? You're twisting numbers to fit your point. Throw out the league average games. The offense has been above average 39 games and below average in 34 games and exactly average in 11 games. In the games that the offense has been below average the pitching has only been able to pick them up 20 percent of the time...that is a very low number in a pitching dominated year.

Edited July 3, 2011 by AverageJoesGym

[Voice of Reason]

If things don't get better over the next week, we will see some moves over the All Star break IMO.

[SSC]

Shouldn't they be winning about 1/3 of the games when the offense is below average? And half the games when the offense is average? This is a year when pitching is dominating in the league. An above average offense + a poor pitching staff = a .500 ballclub. The offense is no more to blame than the pitching. You tout the offense scoring average or below average in 45 out of 84 games....isn't it also true that the offense has scored above average in 50 out of 84 games? You're twisting numbers to fit your point. Throw out the league average games. The offense has been above average 39 games and below average in 34 games and exactly average in 11 games. In the games that the offense has been below average the pitching has only been able to pick them up 20 percent of the time...that is a very low number in a pitching dominated year.

 

I honestly don't know how many of those games did they score 3. It's pretty hard tom win scoring 2 or less. You are ignoring my points though that the pitching should have struggled with the injuries they've had. The offense has ben awfully healthy. Also they play in a park that favors offense. If they played in the West I'd be more inclined to be with you. Also they have 3 guys in the top 30 and another in the top 40 as far as quality start percentage. I would guess they aren't as good in those games as they were last year. I've said all along pitching is and was an issue but the offense has been just as much to blame since that Pirates series.

[EZ Living]

Once again, what you post as facts are incorrect....

 

Just making sure you were paying attention. I have been out of town and got the wrong pitching matchup. Still a bad offensive showing for a bad offensive team.

[EZ Living]

I honestly don't know how many of those games did they score 3. It's pretty hard tom win scoring 2 or less. You are ignoring my points though that the pitching should have struggled with the injuries they've had. The offense has ben awfully healthy. Also they play in a park that favors offense. If they played in the West I'd be more inclined to be with you. Also they have 3 guys in the top 30 and another in the top 40 as far as quality start percentage. I would guess they aren't as good in those games as they were last year. I've said all along pitching is and was an issue but the offense has been just as much to blame since that Pirates series.

 

I don't know why you waste your time. There are still people on here that think this team is a good offensive team and quite frankly they can't beat very many teams with this lineup.

[westsider]

NL West skews the numbers some for the D-Backs a bit wouldn't you say? The Cards aren't that good either. That isn't the point though. People wanted to blame the Reds struggles solely on the pitching earlier in the year and clearly that isn't and wasn't the case.

But clearly, the Reds aren't the only team that have that issue.

[westsider]

I've always felt the offense overperformed a bit last year, and several Reds aren't duplicating their work at the plate from 2010. Nevertheless, the strength of this team should be the pitching, and now that Cueto and Bailey may both be healthy, we'll see how good this team is. They still have the pitching to win the division.

[sumoroyal]

The Reds have several problems. One of the many is that they almost never score early in the game and give their pitcher a lead. The Reds pitcher is always pitching in a tie or tight game and is never pitching with the lead. That does make a difference. I believe the Reds are one of the worst first inning teams. It would be interesting but can someone tell me what the breakdown is fir runs scored? First three, middle three and third three innings. The third should be last cause if your winning you only get two AB's in that last third.

[HammerTime]

Lewis 7, Phillips 4, Votto 3, Bruce 9, Hernandez 2, Heisey8, Renteria 6, Cairo 5, Leake 1

[Voice of Reason]

I haven't heard the results of Reyes MRI yet, but imagine if he is out for one or two months and the Reds had traded for him. That would be horrible. Trade away studs for a rent a player and then he goes down to injury ... ouch. The big knock on Reyes has been he is injury prone. If he goes on the DL for any amount of time, his value in free agency takes a hit. If the injury is serious and/or he recovers as slow as he usually does, I see him staying with the Mets because no one else will be willing to pay the premium to get him away.

 

So what do the BGP'ers have next on the table at SS? Are we focused on bringing up Cozart?

[HammerTime]

^ Yes.