Brennaman's thoughts on Dunn

[IAmAFan]

STRIKE3 I also don't think Dunn should have dropped off that much do to lack of protection. I understand your point, but Dunn has to address weaknesses in order to get better and I think it's obvious he hasn't done that. The line up next year isn't going to be anything special so are we counting on another drop? I'm thinking 42 HR's 225 Average and 86 RBI's. Oh yeah and he'll lose 4 games with his glove.

[STRIKE3]

STRIKE3 I also don't think Dunn should have dropped off that much do to lack of protection. I understand your point, but Dunn has to address weaknesses in order to get better and I think it's obvious he hasn't done that. The line up next year isn't going to be anything special so are we counting on another drop? I'm thinking 42 HR's 225 Average and 86 RBI's. Oh yeah and he'll lose 4 games with his glove.

His numbers have certainly dropped and Dunn must work on correcting that aspect of his game, which opposing Pitchers/Managers exploit.

 

The suggestion of not going so deep into the count consistently, even though most power hitters are taught that technique, may be the answer. A swing where the right hit doesn't open, or think middle of the field first, may be the answer.

 

As for next season, it's getting close and Spring Training will be a time, to correct certain aspects for Dunn and the entire team.

 

Now, as for Marty saying that about Dunn....His HR's have been consistent the last few years but not many players, approach 130 RBI's....especially since suggesting it is easy, but is more slightly more difficult in reality.

[h.s.sportsrbest]

Actually if that continues, in this age of inflated number then him and Dave Kingman or at best Pete Incaviglia will be rightly joined arm in arm.

A. If Adam Dunn ends his career looking like Dave Kingman, while not great, you could certainly do worse than hitting 440+ home runs and driving in over 1200 runs. However, again, I don't "think" that we're talking about similar players.

 

B. Dunn's career, in 6 seasons, is already better than Incaviglia's was in 12.

[h.s.sportsrbest]

Since he's never, ever done that. Do you really want to bet ANYTHING, that he'll suddenly see the light and hit any ball with a wrinkle it this year. Face it Adam Dunn is Pat Burrell or Pete Incaviglia in a bandbox park that allows him to hit 45 homers instead of the 35 that they hit.

He hasn't? He's been right around those numbers several times (less so on the average).

 

He hit .262 and .266 in the last 5 years.

He has hit 40 home runs 3 times (in a row) and 46 once.

He has driven in over 100 runs twice, although admittedly never 110.

He has scored 105 runs or more twice.

He has walked 108 times or more 4 times...with a high of 128.

 

You still think he has "never, ever done that...?" I think expecting him to be at or a tick above his career averages over the next 3 or 4 years isn't unrealistic. Would you take the average of his last 3 years, if guaranteed, over the next 4 years?

 

.249 avg

.380 on-base

42 home runs

98 rbi

104 runs scored

111 walks

186 strikeouts

 

Would you take those numbers from a player every year? Seriously? That is the guy you guys are ripping to shreds? Hilarious. Again, Pete Incaviglia's career numbers were no better in 12 years than Dunn's in 6.

[h.s.sportsrbest]

Because he is a poor base runner and there is no reason to pitch to him with the game in doubt if you don't have to. If you have to pitch to him with the game in doubt his batting average with runners in scoring postition really doesn't scare anyone.

Huh? Let me get this straight, they intentionally walk him because he is a poor base runner. Okey dokey.

 

Then, if you have to pitch to him it doesn't scare anyone, yet inexplicably he continues to be near the top of the NL in IBB's?

 

Solid argument.

[Latch]

Intentional Walk numbers the last 5 years for Dunn and Griffey:

 

2002:

Dunn -- 13

Griffey -- 6

 

2003:

Dunn -- 8

Griffey -- 5

 

2004:

Dunn -- 11

Griffey -- 3

 

2005:

Dunn -- 14

Griffey -- 3

 

2006:

Dunn -- 12

Griffey -- 6

 

Nope.

 

Dunn for sure has played more games. I would like to look at the situation for most of these. For instance when Dunn was hitting 6th or 7th and had Larue, Castro, Valentine, and the rest of those guys behind him you would be crazy to pitch to him w/ men on base. I wish Griffey would have been dropped in the lineup a million times, but he almost always hits 3rd. He has declined since he's been here. So if Griffey's up and he had Kearns, Aurilia, and/or Dunn behind him it's less likely they would walk him.

[AverageJoesGym]

My biggest problem with Dunn is that he doesn't drive in runs. He's been in the top 7 in homeruns for 3 years in a row yet hasn't ever cracked the top 10 in runs batted in. This is in spite of having 45 RBIs each year when he drives himself in. He also made 12 errors in left field while having only 7 assists. He just comes across as a one trick pony: Homerun, Strikeout or Walk. For his career he has done one of those three things on 1699 out of 3420 plate appearances or 49.7% of the time. He's not a bad guy to have on your team if you can afford to hit him in the 5-7 spot in the lineup. His inability to move and/or drive in runs makes him a liability in the 2-4 spots.

[h.s.sportsrbest]

Players that scare me more than Adam Dunn in a one on one situation: (now you have to give me a reason I'm wrong (Jeff Francoeur, Andrew Jones, Brian McCann, Miguel Cabrera, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Zimmerman, Aramis Ramirez, Lance Berkman, Bill Hall, Prince Fielder, Jason Bay, Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, Garrett Adkins, Matt Holliday, Todd Helton, Nomar Garciaparra, J D Drew, Pedro Feliz, and even Ray Durham. Not all of these guys are more likely to hit a homer over Dunn. However, they are all more likely to beat you if you chose to pitch to them. There is a reason that Dunn hits under .250. And HSSB wants to tout him as a potential hall of famer? It ain't happening.

Francoeur -- comical. Bright future but had an awful year last year. Young.

Andruw Jones -- great player. No argument.

Brian McCann -- He has 600 major league AB's. Be serious.

Miggy -- great, great player.

Jose Reyes -- Jose is a super young player, and while not powerful, is very, very good.

David Wright -- awesome young player.

Delgado -- actually, his first 6 years and Dunn's were quite similar.

Chase Utley -- very nice young player.

Ryan Howard -- had a GREAT year last year. Be interesting to see the follow-up.

Soriano -- Strikes out nearly as much, walks less, homers about the same.

Ryan Zimmerman -- Be serious. 600 at-bats and 20 homers...nice player, sure, but come on.

Aramis Ramirez -- Please. Hits a tad better, gets on a lot less. Scores less, homers less.

Lance Berkman -- no question. Great player.

Bill Hall -- you're joking, right?

Prince Fielder -- please. 600 Ab's, 30 homers, hits a little better, walks a lot less.

Jason Bay -- very nice player, somewhat late bloomer, both he and Dunn have strengths.

Pujols -- really? Ya' think?

Scott Rolen -- 5 years ago, maybe. Fractured goods. Solid guy though.

Garrett Atkins -- after 1 nice year? I'm starting to really wonder about you.

Matt Holliday -- good player, not there yet, but I like him.

Helton -- again, really?

Nomar -- not dependable at this point of his career.

JD Drew -- you can have him.

Pedro Feliz -- you are cracking me up.

Ray Durham -- yeah, 10 years ago.

 

If Dunn gets 500 home runs he'll be in the Hall...simple. Is he a world class player, maybe not, but he's freaking 27 and you're ready to write him off. If he averages 23 home runs until he's 39 he'll exceed 500. If he averages 30 he'll get to 600. Those seem unattainable to you?

[IMOM]

It would have to be Dunn, the Reds traded away or released their good players!

 

Right, a lot of NL managers are scared of Kearns...

[h.s.sportsrbest]

My biggest problem with Dunn is that he doesn't drive in runs. He's been in the top 7 in homeruns for 3 years in a row yet hasn't ever cracked the top 10 in runs batted in. This is in spite of having 45 RBIs each year when he drives himself in. He also made 12 errors in left field while having only 7 assists. He just comes across as a one trick pony: Homerun, Strikeout or Walk. For his career he has done one of those three things on 1699 out of 3420 plate appearances or 49.7% of the time. He's not a bad guy to have on your team if you can afford to hit him in the 5-7 spot in the lineup. His inability to move and/or drive in runs makes him a liability in the 2-4 spots.

No one is arguing your first point -- no one. He hasn't been clutch. Agreed. However, 90+ runs a year for 3 years is better than a lot of guys (and nearly every one you had on your mythical list). He had a bad year in LF, again, no argument. A gold glove winner he's not. Frankly, he's consistently had 5 - 9 assists from LF...that's not horrible.

 

Isn't that 3 tricks?

 

He runs a lot better than he is given credit for. He can jump up and steal a base.

 

For the 1,387th time, I also hope he can, as he ages and relaxes at the plate, show more of a knack for being clutch. :thumb:

[h.s.sportsrbest]

Interview with Adam Dunn by the Houston Chronicle, questions asked by Astros' Rookie pitcher (and Dunn workout partner) Chris Sampson. Pretty entertaining...

 

Houston Chronicle

[h.s.sportsrbest]

How bad exactly are strikeouts? Here is the list of the top 9 National Leaguers last year in terms of strikeouts:

 

Adam Dunn (194)

Ryan Howard (181)

Bill Hall (162)

Alfonso Soriano (160)

Jason Bay (156)

Mike Cameron (142)

Austin Kearns (135)

Jeff Francoeur (132)

Chase Utley (132)

 

Those nine hitters averaged 35 home runs, 101 runs, 100 RBIs, roughly a .360 on-base percentage and a .524 slugging percentage.

 

Wow, strikeouts sure are an indication of bad hitters.

[h.s.sportsrbest]

I thought this was interesting from the Cincinnati Reds' website (Bill Bray over Junior..huh? Who would have thunk it?):

 

 

Reds' Website

[HammerTime]

^^ I wouldn't ever draft Griff on my team. He doesn't play enough games.

[Latch]

If Dunn gets 500 home runs he'll be in the Hall...simple. Is he a world class player, maybe not, but he's freaking 27 and you're ready to write him off. If he averages 23 home runs until he's 39 he'll exceed 500. If he averages 30 he'll get to 600. Those seem unattainable to you?

 

 

I think he'll have to do a lot of work to play until he's 39. In fact I'll go a little GT on you and you can write this down. He will not play full time after the age of 37 and probably even sooner. He for sure will not be a Red or in the NL past the age of 35 unless he dratically changes his work ethic. The question myself and other fans have is will he put in the time and effort to become a superstar?