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RPI Tracking 2A 2022


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Here is my commentary on RPI and why I believe it is too flawed to be used for football as it is now.

KHSAA RPI is not just a football ranking and it isn't just a Kentucky ranking. The formula is used by other sports and it is being used across the country. It is being used by the NCAA and NAIA. I haven't looked closely at how RPI works for other sports, but from what I have looked at I think it probably works better in other sports than it does in football.

The challenge in football is 6 classes. There is a weighting attached to the game value for each class with a 15% higher value for each class as you go up from 1A. As a result, a 6A game has twice the value of a 1A game. That attempt to add value to a win purely because of the size of the school creates inequities.

Strength of Schedule is factored in but the issue there is it is purely based on a team's win loss record, and not by a true measure of strength of opponent and schedule. For example, what points does a team receive for a win over 5-0 Seneca versus a win over 5-0 Woodford County? For the winning percentage, it is the same. Both teams are class 5A schools so a team gets the same points in WP value for beating either team regardless of the 5A school's record. Next you go to OWP (Opponent's Winning Percentage). Both schools are 5-0 so that value will be the same for a win over either school. Only when you get to OOWP (Opponent's Opponent's Winning Percentage) will there likely be a higher value for a win over Woodford County.

The bottom line and big flaw in KHSAA RPI for football is more than two thirds of the weight of the ranking has little to do with how good a team really is. It is more about what class the team is in and what their record is regardless of the strength or weakness of their schedule. 

If I am off base on any of this, please comment. That is my reading of the formula and how it works.

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I 100% agree but must add I really do not know exactly how it works.  Like you, the class thing seems big.  Out here KY is narow and only goes to the East so we have traditionally played alot of out of state teams.  Under this system we can't afford too and that is another of my complaints with this system.  As for tracking it weekly, not sure there is a reason too until the season is over.  I can't tell who ends of in what spot til then because I don't know how the formula works exactly.  

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2 hours ago, Toothpick said:

I 100% agree but must add I really do not know exactly how it works.  Like you, the class thing seems big.  Out here KY is narow and only goes to the East so we have traditionally played alot of out of state teams.  Under this system we can't afford too and that is another of my complaints with this system.  As for tracking it weekly, not sure there is a reason too until the season is over.  I can't tell who ends of in what spot til then because I don't know how the formula works exactly.  

The purpose of tracking it is partly because I am trying to better understand how it works. And to hopefully help others better understand it. 

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47 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

The purpose of tracking it is partly because I am trying to better understand how it works. And to hopefully help others better understand it. 

I understood that, I thought you would get that I just meant it was frustrating.   

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These initial polls are a good jumping off point.  Those of us that follow along thru the season understand how skewed these rankings are when they first come out.  By the end of the regular season, it usually works itself out and is close to where it needs to be.  It will be an interesting finish this season.  Beechwood with one loss, LCA with two.  Normally I would complain about Mayfield's lack of quality opponents, but this season they need some easy games to recover from injury.  Not to mention, getting some of these younger guys some playing time.  There is still a chance the Cards take a loss.  Murray has been a thorn in their side recently so who knows.  The Tigers don't have much of a defense, but have been putting up lots of points, so who knows.

Beechwood and LCA easily have the two toughest schedules and its not close.  And both of those teams have had the injury bug too.  I do think, talent wise, Mayfield has closed the gap this season on both of those teams, so if they do happen to match up with either I suspect a tighter game than last years semifinal game with Beechwood and Mayfield.

 

Owensboro Catholic is a hard team to figure out.  I have watched them play Mayfield several times over the years, and they didn't meet my expectations.  Maybe they will turn a corner this year.  They just haven't made some post season noise in quite some time.  I will say, their three losses are to some tough teams.  Hancock and McLean haven't played anyone of note, so I don't consider them a threat to the top 4 teams.

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End Season I can see Beachwood #1 Mayfeild #2 (Depending on if they take care of murray) LCA #3. The rest are toss ups.  I do see Green and Metcalfe being in the top 10 as well.  This season could possibly be the best playoffs 2A has had in a long time. 

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50 minutes ago, xLAZYx said:

End Season I can see Beachwood #1 Mayfeild #2 (Depending on if they take care of murray) LCA #3. The rest are toss ups.  I do see Green and Metcalfe being in the top 10 as well.  This season could possibly be the best playoffs 2A has had in a long time. 

The race for that #4 spot is going to be fun to watch. Lot of dark horses lurking that could shock. I would be stunned if it wasn't Owensboro Catholic, Shelby Valley or Breathitt Co...but stranger things have happened. 

My super dark horse for that 4 spot is Lloyd.

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1 minute ago, BrosefStalin said:

The race for that #4 spot is going to be fun to watch. Lot of dark horses lurking that could shock. I would be stunned if it wasn't Owensboro Catholic, Shelby Valley or Breathitt Co...but stranger things have happened. 

My super dark horse for that 4 spot is Lloyd.

Could you imagine a semi-final game between Lloyd and Beechwood. 🙂

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