RPI Tracking 2A 2022

[theguru]

15 hours ago, bjaynes said:

If Beechwood returns to health and some of the returning injured get some significant reps before the playoffs then I will have to go with the Tigers. We shall see. 

I was asking about the statistical probability for the top RPI ranking. 

[bjaynes]

On 9/26/2022 at 9:48 AM, theguru said:

I was asking about the statistical probability for the top RPI ranking. 

Oh, man. I put my stats books in storage after grad school. Please do not make me dig them out. 🙂

[Voice of Reason]

Updated RPI from the KHSAA at https://khsaa.org/rpi_details/?event_id=1197

 

                                                                                     WP          OWP       OOWP      RPI

11	Beechwood	2A	6	5	-	1			6	1.14804	.64654	.70118	.83846
2	Mayfield	2A	1	7	-	0			7	1.29482	.39374	.58891	.76767
3	McLean County	2A	2	6	-	1			7	1.20071	.35665	.59316	.72303
4	Hancock County	2A	2	6	-	1			7	1.08030	.41387	.64287	.71582
5	Butler County	2A	2	5	-	1			6	.98521	.56613	.54873	.70759
6	Owensboro Catholic	2A	2	4	-	3			7	.75279	.83149	.49889	.70417
7	Somerset	2A	4	4	-	3			7	.60167	.75776	.58092	.65008
8	Breathitt County	2A	7	4	-	2			6	.69494	.62035	.56487	.62981
9	Lloyd Memorial	2A	6	4	-	2			6	.90533	.37909	.56476	.61897
10	Lexington Christian	2A	4	3	-	4			7	.47140	.79841	.51639	.59935
11	Metcalfe County	2A	3	7	-	0			7	1.05119	.22011	.49933	.59475
12	Todd County Central	2A	2	4	-	3			7	.63887	.59066	.54007	.59236
13	Walton-Verona	2A	5	5	-	2			7	.83470	.39984	.49139	.57951
14	Prestonsburg	2A	8	6	-	1			7	.86794	.32910	.53431	.57926
15	Shelby Valley	2A	8	4	-	2			6	.71663	.47014	.52693	.57345
16	Middlesboro	2A	7	4	-	3			7	.55565	.60104	.48908	.55156
17	Owen County	2A	5	4	-	2			6	.64497	.50166	.47825	.54480
18	Green County	2A	3	4	-	2			6	.66995	.40307	.56316	.54451
19	Murray	2A	1	3	-	3			6	.53200	.47036	.57232	.52252
20	Martin County	2A	8	4	-	2			6	.62601	.42559	.47294	.50994
21	Danville	2A	4	2	-	4			6	.41201	.57468	.52874	.50396
22	Washington County	2A	4	3	-	4			7	.47741	.50002	.53479	.50254
23	Fort Campbell	2A	1	2	-	4			6	.39842	.59420	.49686	.49648
24	Newport	2A	6	3	-	4			7	.41279	.58486	.45836	.48669
25	Trimble County	2A	5	3	-	3			6	.50000	.43077	.50765	.47806
26	Carroll County	2A	5	3	-	4			7	.48436	.44224	.50864	.47690
27	East Ridge	2A	8	2	-	4			6	.36533	.60987	.41076	.46455
28	Edmonson County	2A	3	2	-	5			7	.25087	.67165	.42598	.45068
29	Leslie County	2A	7	3	-	3			6	.50329	.32502	.49306	.43782
30	West Carter	2A	8	1	-	5			6	.16667	.58519	.48763	.40944
31	Holy Cross (Covington)	2A	6	1	-	5			6	.14497	.59567	.41282	.38307
32	Caldwell County	2A	1	1	-	6			7	.14286	.50146	.49713	.37465
33	Gallatin County	2A	5	1	-	5			6	.14497	.43372	.48906	.34926
34	Monroe County	2A	3	0	-	7			7	.00000	.55421	.43826	.32545
35	Bath County	2A	8	1	-	5			6	.14497	.36417	.48880	.32484
36	Morgan County	2A	7	1	-	6			7	.10801	.40530	.41120	.30302
37	Clinton County	2A	3	0	-	7			7	.00000	.43682	.47138	.29430
38	Shawnee	2A	5	1	-	5			6	.12601	.37657	.38499	.29140
39	Ballard Memorial	2A	1	0	-	6			6	.00000	.31457	.43077	.23933

[BrosefStalin]

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but is Lloyd - or really, the #2 team in District 6 is coming years - the biggest winner in the change in playoff format to playing sister districts? 

If Lloyd, this season, avoids laying an egg anywhere in the regular season, they'll play #3 in District 6 (likely Trimble or Owen) in the first round, then, the winner of the other 2/3 game. So the sister district tournament after week 2 will have 2 teams remaining. In the scenario here, let's say Beechwood/Lloyd come out as winners after week 2.

At that point, there are 8 teams left and the schedule goes to RPI rankings. Correct? 

My point is, moving forward, the #2 in 6A could - theoretically - now have a legitimate shot to make a run to round 4 of the playoffs. A feat that has been virtually impossible since the current district alignment was established and these schools were stuck with Beechwood in round 2 every year.

 

[Tigerallamerican]

Predicted district winners heading into R3

District 1 - Mayfield

District 2 - Owensboro Catholic

District 3 - Metcalf Co

District 4 - LCA

District 5 - Walton-Verona

District 6 - Beechwood

District 7 - Breathitt 

District 8 - Shelby Valley 

If we went by RPI at this point they would stack as follows

Beechwood - East

Mayfield - West

Owensboro Catholic - West

Breathitt - East

LCA - West

Metcalfe - West

Walton Verona - East

Shelby Valley - East 

Not sure if my east and west are correct but if they are I think the matchups would be as follows:

Shelby Valley at Beechwood

LCA at Owensboro Catholic

Walton Verona at Breathitt 

Metcalfe at Mayfield 

 

 

[KYFootballFanz]

26 minutes ago, Tigerallamerican said:

Predicted district winners heading into R3

District 1 - Mayfield

District 2 - Owensboro Catholic

District 3 - Metcalf Co

District 4 - LCA

District 5 - Walton-Verona

District 6 - Beechwood

District 7 - Breathitt 

District 8 - Shelby Valley 

If we went by RPI at this point they would stack as follows

Beechwood - East

Mayfield - West

Owensboro Catholic - West

Breathitt - East

LCA - West

Metcalfe - West

Walton Verona - East

Shelby Valley - East 

Not sure if my east and west are correct but if they are I think the matchups would be as follows:

Shelby Valley at Beechwood

LCA at Owensboro Catholic

Walton Verona at Breathitt 

Metcalfe at Mayfield 

 

 

If it’s going back to cross district playoffs for the 1st & 2nd round, I don’t see anyone from district 5 making it to the 3rd round. Lloyd district 6s #2 is better than any district 5 school.

[DanvilleFan]

RPI loves District 2!

[DanvilleFan]

2 hours ago, BrosefStalin said:

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but is Lloyd - or really, the #2 team in District 6 is coming years - the biggest winner in the change in playoff format to playing sister districts? 

If Lloyd, this season, avoids laying an egg anywhere in the regular season, they'll play #3 in District 6 (likely Trimble or Owen) in the first round, then, the winner of the other 2/3 game. So the sister district tournament after week 2 will have 2 teams remaining. In the scenario here, let's say Beechwood/Lloyd come out as winners after week 2.

At that point, there are 8 teams left and the schedule goes to RPI rankings. Correct? 

My point is, moving forward, the #2 in 6A could - theoretically - now have a legitimate shot to make a run to round 4 of the playoffs. A feat that has been virtually impossible since the current district alignment was established and these schools were stuck with Beechwood in round 2 every year.

 

That's what I love about the new format.  It's not even inconceivable that you could have two district rivals playing for the state title if the RPI shook out the right way.

[killbilly usmc]

On 9/24/2022 at 10:19 PM, killbilly usmc said:

Here is the killbilly usmc prediction of who mayfield would most likely play round by round if they keep winning in playoffs. Subject to change with rpi each week.  My prediction as of now

1st round Mclean co

2nd round Hancock co

3rd round LCA

4th round O Cath

5th round Beechwood

 

My new prediction for Mayfield

1st round Mclean co

2nd round Hancock co

3rd round Metcalfe co

4th round Breathitt co

5th round Beechwood

[BWTigers]

Since the RPI came out 3 weeks ago Beechwood went from second behind Mayfield to a slight lead over Mayfield to now what seems like a considerable lead over Mayfield for that top spot. How does the lead keep growing? I know that Fairdale hasn’t lost since losing to Beechwood week 1 but Somerset, Paintsville, and SK all lost this week so why the bigger advantage?

[killbilly usmc]

I should probably just quit predicting till regular season over.  These rpi changing every week could keep every thing moving around.  

[killbilly usmc]

Beechwood will easily finish 1st in rpi I think.  As of now I got O cath, and Lca in 3rd round, and the winner of that I have no clue.  That game would affect who meets in 4th round big time.

[killbilly usmc]

4 minutes ago, BWTigers said:

Since the RPI came out 3 weeks ago Beechwood went from second behind Mayfield to a slight lead over Mayfield to now what seems like a considerable lead over Mayfield for that top spot. How does the lead keep growing? I know that Fairdale hasn’t lost since losing to Beechwood week 1 but Somerset, Paintsville, and SK all lost this week so why the bigger advantage?

Mayfields opponents ain't winning much.  Paducah Tilghman helped this week, but everyone else losing except for Graves Co, and i think the team they beat is either winless or 1 win only.  The remainder of the season Beechwood should increase lead, until Mayfield plays Madisonville, and a win there wont close the gap near as much as it will be.  This is a year number 1 in rpi may not be a good thing.  The number 1 team could potentially host LCA, and the number 2 team could host Breathitt co in 4th round.  Not much of a prize to be number 1 if that scenario played out.

[theguru]

12 minutes ago, killbilly usmc said:

Mayfields opponents ain't winning much.  Paducah Tilghman helped this week, but everyone else losing except for Graves Co, and i think the team they beat is either winless or 1 win only.  The remainder of the season Beechwood should increase lead, until Mayfield plays Madisonville, and a win there wont close the gap near as much as it will be.  This is a year number 1 in rpi may not be a good thing.  The number 1 team could potentially host LCA, and the number 2 team could host Breathitt co in 4th round.  Not much of a prize to be number 1 if that scenario played out.

I will take home games no matter what so give my Tigers the #1 position in the RPI.

[xLAZYx]

21 hours ago, Tigerallamerican said:

Predicted district winners heading into R3

District 1 - Mayfield

District 2 - Owensboro Catholic

District 3 - Metcalf Co

District 4 - LCA

District 5 - Walton-Verona

District 6 - Beechwood

District 7 - Breathitt 

District 8 - Shelby Valley 

If we went by RPI at this point they would stack as follows

Beechwood - East

Mayfield - West

Owensboro Catholic - West

Breathitt - East

LCA - West

Metcalfe - West

Walton Verona - East

Shelby Valley - East 

Not sure if my east and west are correct but if they are I think the matchups would be as follows:

Shelby Valley at Beechwood

LCA at Owensboro Catholic

Walton Verona at Breathitt 

Metcalfe at Mayfield 

 

 

RPI will start getting better once everyone has their Bye or open week.  I don't see Mayfeild taken the #1 spot. District 3 is a toss up between Green and Metcalfe. Early season I would have picked Metcalfe for the #1 in 3. At the moment It's a toss up with a slight advantage to Green.