RPI Tracking 2A 2022

[Voice of Reason]

On 10/23/2022 at 4:02 AM, Voice of Reason said:

Assuming all teams win their final game, here is the projected final 2A RPI:

1. Beechwood ............ .760132

2. Owensboro Catholic .... .741473

3. Mayfield .................. .733256

4. McLean County ...... .708535

5. Butler County ......... .661074

6. Lexington Christian ..... .646304

7. Hancock County ......... .642989

8. Metcalfe County ........ .628837

9. Lloyd Memorial ......... .625619

 

This is a rough projection. With all the games played by opponents and opponent's opponents being impossible to project, there could be some variance. However, in the numbers for the final four, it looks pretty certain that the final four will be east vs. east and west vs. west. Only one of Owensboro Catholic, Mayfield and LCA will make the title game and LCA will be on the road in the final four, assuming the favorites keep winning.

Looking to round 3, a key game is going to be Danville versus Metcalfe County. If Danville wins their way to round 3, that will set up LCA at Mayfield in round 3.

Well, I was close. Metcalfe County at 6 instead of 8 was my one team out of order. Here is RPI as of 11 pm.

https://khsaa.org/rpi_details/?event_id=1197

There may be a couple games still not factored in but this should be the final order:

1. Beechwood 

2. Owensboro Catholic 

3. Mayfield

4. McLean County 

5. Butler County 

6. Metcalfe County

7. Lexington Christian

8. Hancock County

9. Lloyd Memorial 

[TheBearsFavoriteHat]

Is the Breathitt County/Knox Central game not factored in to the W/L for some reason?

I see the game reported in the results, but it doesn't seem to have changed the W/L column

[JuggsFan82]

18 minutes ago, TheBearsFavoriteHat said:

Is the Breathitt County/Knox Central game not factored in to the W/L for some reason?

I see the game reported in the results, but it doesn't seem to have changed the W/L column

It was just updated.

 

Edited October 29, 2022 by theguru

[TheBearsFavoriteHat]

So looks like it would be Shelby Valley at Beechwood and Breathitt at Lloyd if that is the four. 

[Voice of Reason]

22 minutes ago, TheBearsFavoriteHat said:

Is the Breathitt County/Knox Central game not factored in to the W/L for some reason?

I see the game reported in the results, but it doesn't seem to have changed the W/L column

 

7 minutes ago, JuggsFan82 said:

It was just updated

 

 

4 minutes ago, TheBearsFavoriteHat said:

So looks like it would be Shelby Valley at Beechwood and Breathitt at Lloyd if that is the four. 

That Holmes win pushed Lloyd into the #2 slot in the east.

[Voice of Reason]

On 10/27/2022 at 8:51 PM, Toothpick said:

I would love to see Mayfield get to play LCA and BW in the title.  A rough road but if you survive it would mean more.  

Metcalfe County vs Danville is going to be a huge game. The winner of that game will determine if Mayfield plays LCA in round 3 or round 4 (assuming both keep winning). If Danville wins, they will play Owensboro Catholic in round 3 and Mayfield will play LCA. If Metcalfe County wins, they will play Mayfield and Owensboro Catholic will play LCA in round 3.

[Voice of Reason]

I will wait to post the final standings because there is one more 2A game left to be played today (Green County at Todd County Central). That game will change some of the numbers around just a little for a number of teams and it actually could change the final ranking for Green County, Todd County Central and Shelby Valley.

[Voice of Reason]

This is the final 2A RPI:

1	Beechwood	2A	6	9	-	1			10	1.07581	.63577	.57296	.77094
2	Owensboro Catholic	2A	2	7	-	3			10	.84195	.84273	.52829	.74812
3	Mayfield	2A	1	10	-	0			10	1.23859	.42626	.53675	.74372
4	McLean County	2A	2	8	-	2			10	1.07272	.48806	.56130	.71466
5	Butler County	2A	2	8	-	2			10	.94320	.45538	.58505	.66502
6	Metcalfe County	2A	3	10	-	0			10	1.02643	.42444	.51266	.66160
7	Lexington Christian	2A	4	6	-	4			10	.70487	.65749	.54585	.64058
8	Hancock County	2A	2	6	-	4			10	.75621	.58016	.54934	.63253
9	Lloyd Memorial	2A	6	7	-	3			10	.87541	.43971	.56148	.62873
10	Green County	2A	3	7	-	3			10	.73419	.59007	.54667	.62749
11	Breathitt County	2A	7	7	-	2			9	.83242	.48963	.53737	.62393
12	Shelby Valley	2A	8	8	-	2			10	.81696	.46493	.52765	.60696
13	Todd County Central	2A	2	5	-	5			10	.54721	.66330	.53814	.58512
14	Walton-Verona	2A	5	8	-	2			10	.88429	.37228	.47271	.58161
15	Somerset	2A	4	5	-	5			10	.52117	.63333	.57071	.57529
16	Middlesboro	2A	7	6	-	3			9	.63993	.56566	.50247	.57270
17	Caldwell County	2A	1	5	-	5			10	.56706	.58149	.51968	.55790
18	Prestonsburg	2A	8	8	-	2			10	.80756	.33680	.48575	.54625
19	Martin County	2A	8	6	-	4			10	.57561	.51658	.46657	.52223
20	Carroll County	2A	5	6	-	4			10	.63905	.42319	.48414	.51703
21	Danville	2A	4	4	-	6			10	.44721	.51941	.55018	.50337
22	Murray	2A	1	5	-	5			10	.50618	.50452	.49772	.50306
23	Leslie County	2A	7	5	-	5			10	.46456	.49041	.47245	.47598
24	Owen County	2A	5	5	-	5			10	.48698	.44034	.46421	.46382
25	Fort Campbell	2A	1	4	-	6			10	.41466	.46678	.49881	.45815
26	Newport	2A	6	3	-	7			10	.27758	.59666	.50549	.45763
27	Edmonson County	2A	3	3	-	7			10	.32768	.53248	.49321	.44902
28	Washington County	2A	4	3	-	7			10	.33419	.46154	.52879	.43714
29	East Ridge	2A	8	4	-	6			10	.39481	.46106	.44524	.43313
30	Monroe County	2A	3	3	-	7			10	.28698	.45832	.55485	.42731
31	Holy Cross (Covington)	2A	6	2	-	8			10	.17561	.60263	.48143	.41681
32	Trimble County	2A	5	4	-	6			10	.37561	.42155	.44272	.41182
33	West Carter	2A	8	2	-	8			10	.20000	.53176	.47555	.39878
34	Gallatin County	2A	5	2	-	8			10	.17561	.45510	.47115	.36209
35	Bath County	2A	8	1	-	9			10	.08698	.47804	.46797	.33815
36	Clinton County	2A	3	0	-	10			10	.00000	.53199	.49889	.33586
37	Shawnee	2A	5	2	-	8			10	.17561	.40222	.40121	.32260
38	Morgan County	2A	7	1	-	9			10	.07561	.39457	.42785	.29292
39	Ballard Memorial	2A	1	0	-	10			10	.00000	.43610	.45740	.28985

[Voice of Reason]

On 10/29/2022 at 12:28 AM, Voice of Reason said:

Metcalfe County vs Danville is going to be a huge game. The winner of that game will determine if Mayfield plays LCA in round 3 or round 4 (assuming both keep winning). If Danville wins, they will play Owensboro Catholic in round 3 and Mayfield will play LCA. If Metcalfe County wins, they will play Mayfield and Owensboro Catholic will play LCA in round 3.

Tonight is a huge night in the 2A playoffs. The 2A RPI and the Metcalfe County vs. Danville game are going to set the bracket in the west for round 3. These two scenarios are assuming Owensboro Catholic, Mayfield and LCA all win their games.

If that happens as expected, here is what we are looking at in round 3 in the west:

 

If Metcalfe County beats Danville:

Lexington Christian at Owensboro Catholic

Metcalfe County at Mayfield

 

If Danville beats Metcalfe County:

Danville at Owensboro Catholic

Lexington Christian at Mayfield

 

[theguru]

1 minute ago, Voice of Reason said:

Tonight is a huge night in the 2A playoffs. The 2A RPI and the Metcalfe County vs. Danville game are going to set the bracket in the west for round 3. These two scenarios are assuming Owensboro Catholic, Mayfield and LCA all win their games.

If that happens as expected, here is what we are looking at in round 3 in the west:

 

If Metcalfe County beats Danville:

Lexington Christian at Owensboro Catholic

Metcalfe County at Mayfield

 

If Danville beats Metcalfe County:

Danville at Owensboro Catholic

Lexington Christian at Mayfield

 

TP94 Power Ratings say:

Metcalfe County 65.62
Danville 65.4

[Voice of Reason]

5 minutes ago, theguru said:

TP94 Power Ratings say:

Metcalfe County 65.62
Danville 65.4

calpreps.com has it .... Metcalfe County 31 Danville 26

Most of 2A will certainly be watching for that game result tonight.

[TheBearsFavoriteHat]

17 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Most of 2A will certainly be watching for that game result tonight.

Coming from a NKY guy absolutely. I know they have a big task in front of them this week, but if Danville wins this week, what are the chances they can pull a win out next week too? 

Having both 2A NKY schools remaining in the final 4 but still not playing each other would be crazy to me. Danville traveling to Beechwood and Lloyd going to Mayfield/LCA. I know I'm probably getting way ahead of myself because I personally see OC winning next week if they matchup with Danville and Lloyd has their own problems to deal with in Breathitt County likely coming to town. But a man can dream 😆 

[theguru]

What is your crystal ball saying for next week @Voice of Reason depending on who wins this week?

[Voice of Reason]

2 hours ago, theguru said:

What is your crystal ball saying for next week @Voice of Reason depending on who wins this week?

With Metcalfe County beating Danville, we know that the final four will be East vs East and West vs West. The only thing that can change that is Shelby Valley beating Beechwood and that is not going to happen.

As far as the matchups themselves, Owensboro Catholic is truly the wild card for me. We find out this week how good they are. I see that O Cath/LCA game being a high scoring back and forth battle that either could win. If O Cath wins, they are home next week against the winner of Mayfield/Metcalfe. If O Cath loses, LCA is on the road to the winner of the Mayfield/Metcalfe game.

In the east, I lean towards Lloyd over Breathitt County with the home field advantage and they go to Beechwood next week.