Class 5A Playoffs: #4 Bowling Green at #5 South Oldham

On paper, this is the best quarterfinal matchup in 5A. Both teams have been ranked near one another all season and look evenly matched. Bowling Green (8-3) has taken some losses to good competition, but the schedule has paid dividends thus far. They swept the season series with South Warren to get here and the defense has been outstanding when not facing a Louisville big school power.

South Oldham (11-1) has the more impressive record, but the far less strenuous schedule. They did, however, clock Central Hardin to close the regular season, stoking the belief that they could potentially shake things up at the top of this class. They'll ride an eleven game winning streak into Friday's clash.

Will the Purples plunge a sword into the heart of the Dragons, or will South Oldham breathe a little fire and melt BG's title hopes in Crestwood?

I don't know. South Oldham could be great. But until they prove it to me they don't get the benefit of the doubt. Their schedule is super weak.

I'll take the Purples. But they are going to have to play a lot better than they did against South Warren.

I’ll go with the Purples in this match-up. I see it being a very close game, coming down similarly to the BG/SW game.

Looking forward to seeing my friend @FootballBobcat again!

We will be on opposite sides this time though, which is just part of it. Last time I was at South Oldham, I sat with FB on the South Side when they beat Highlands 3 or 4 years ago!

Coach Reed has done an excellent job at South!

I have only watched the first half of the North Bullitt game last Friday night for South Oldham all year. So know that going in. I will say that I am most concerned about their running QB. RB Martin, their SR WR and the Benson kid all have good skill and their OLine looked very solid. On defense, they had some holes against Bullitt early.

It's pretty clear by looking at both teams schedules that BG has played by far the superior schedule, but will that matter on Friday? Maybe and maybe not, but I think it mattered last Friday as BG was able to weather the South Warren storm and pull out a difficult rivalry win.

I think it comes down to which offense has the fewest mistakes and which defense plays best. I'll take the Purples.

BG 24

South Oldham - 14

CALPREPS has this a 1-point South Oldham victory. BG has played the superior schedule, but South is at home. I like the DE on South Oldham but BG has a knack for winning big games and they expect to.

BG 35-14.

This game, like every other game of football, will be won in the trenches. Both teams have explosive athletes and adept QBs, and with those factors in play, the team that dominates the line of scrimmage will be practicing on Thanksgiving.

I’ll give the slightest of nods to South for having a home game against the Purples who have to make a 2 hour drive.

Dragons 21

Purples 18.

I'm going with S. Oldham in this one. I think it will be a barn burner though.

SO- 30

BG- 28

Should be a good game in Crestwood! I'll take South Oldham due to the home field advantage.

South offensive blocking has been superb all year - regardless of the competition - and I not only like the South OL, I am particularly impressed by the downfield blocking of the receivers.

Home run threats in FB Keaton Martin and WB J.T. Benson set up South QB Anthony Pierce very well - one of the reasons he has only been picked once all season - 1,150 yards passing, 18 touchdowns, and just that one pick. If South can run the ball enough - they average about 250 yards / game on the ground - to set up their play-action game, it could be difficult for Bowling Green to get the road win. Of the top 30 passers in 5A, Pierce leads the pack in completion percentage at 72.5%.

On the other hand, if the Purples can force South Oldham to go the air early and often, it will be interesting to see if the Dragons can win the game doing something they haven't had to do all year, which is pass to set up the run. Bowling Green has 19 picks on the season, so they will challenge Pierce's accuracy if South has to rely on the air attack.

The Purples like to pass the ball, throwing for over 1,800 yards this year with 23 TDs and only 8 picks, but they will also be facing a secondary of ball-hawking defenders. Nine different Dragons have combined for 20 picks on the season. There's no real weak pass defender in the secondary.

A couple of key questions for both teams:

Can BG stop the Dragon big plays created by J. T. Benson? The senior RB / DB has 667 yards rushing and 10 TDs - but the amazing stats come from the fact he has only carried the ball 30 times, so he's averaging over 22 yards a carry, and scoring every third carry. Benson also has 276 yards receiving - on only 9 catches (30+ yards / catch) and 3 more TDs. Defensively, he has 2 fumble recoveries - returning one for a TD - and 3 INT, of which he's returned 2 for TDs. He's also blocked a punt that he returned for a TD. The University of Louisville baseball signee has been a threat to score from any position at any time.

For Bowling Green, the Dragons must solve the problem of Rece Jones, the Purples star junior linebacker. Jones has 40 solo tackles and 76 assists for a whopping 116 total tackles (all team highs). In short, Jones is always around the ball. He has a fumble recovery and an INT. Blocking him will be essential if South is to establish their running game.

Intriguingly, both players wear #26.... :lol2:

This shapes up to be an absolutely dynamite game. And - despite both team's talented offenses - it's not out of the realm of possibility that this could be a low scoring game. South (#3 in state) gives up just 6.3 ppg; Bowling Green (#5) surrenders just 12.5. Which defense will bend the most??

Pegasus Sports will carry the game live (and also archived) beginning at 7 pm ET at The Pegasus Sports Network - PSN

CM

Bowling Green 31

S. Oldham 21

Great write up Colonel! We will see what happens. If BG plays like it did against South Warren they ain't winning.

But I still question South Oldham's schedule so I'm not sure stats really matter against weak teams.

Seems like everyone things this will be a knockdown drag out. Should be fun to watch I hope.

Also looking forward to seeing my friend Purple88 at the game! This will be a very exciting game. I expect BG to crowd the line on defense and make South Oldham beat them through the air. Stopping Souths running game is easier said than done and the OL has vastly improved over the course of the season. If you have to commit too much help to stopping the run, Anthony Pierce has shown he can deliver.

On defense South showed a few cracks early vs North Bullitt against the run. I expect Jamie Reed to fix those going into the game. South's pass rush has been very good all year and the DB's have been outstanding. If the Dragons can keep the BG running attack in check without committing extra bodies to help, they will be fine. If they do have to bring LB's or Safeties to help, I expect BG to have some open passing lanes to take advantage of.

This game could come down to special teams and the kicking game. South has a pretty good one. How is BG's?

Still going South Oldham 24-21.

Great write up Colonel! We will see what happens. If BG plays like it did against South Warren they ain't winning.

 

But I still question South Oldham's schedule so I'm not sure stats really matter against weak teams.

 

Seems like everyone things this will be a knockdown drag out. Should be fun to watch I hope.

You make a good point Killowatt. It's hard to determine what stats mean against some decidedly lesser teams. Of course, a weaker schedule only means a team has had fewer opportunities to show its hand...

I honestly can't make a reasonable pick in this one, having not seen Bowling Green. There's just not something to make a good comparison with. But I saw South Oldham the two times they got a chance to really show their strength. The dominance by South Oldham in two games that were expected to be close games makes me think South will definitely be right in this game. A 49-0 shellacking of an 8 win 6A Oldham County team (which is in the 6A final 8) and a 43-7 drubbing of 6A top 10 Central Hardin were eye-openers. I was there for both and any doubts about the Dragons' ability to compete at this level were erased, soft schedule or not.

Bowling Green may well win this game - it seems most outlets have the Purples as favorites, and I've seen many BG teams over the years. Bowling Green is one of the state's premier teams every year. An amazing tradition. And they take on all comers every year.

I just don't know. But I do know that I think this will be a really good ballgame.

CM

Also looking forward to seeing my friend Purple88 at the game! This will be a very exciting game. I expect BG to crowd the line on defense and make South Oldham beat them through the air. Stopping Souths running game is easier said than done and the OL has vastly improved over the course of the season. If you have to commit too much help to stopping the run, Anthony Pierce has shown he can deliver.

On defense South showed a few cracks early vs North Bullitt against the run. I expect Jamie Reed to fix those going into the game. South's pass rush has been very good all year and the DB's have been outstanding. If the Dragons can keep the BG running attack in check without committing extra bodies to help, they will be fine. If they do have to bring LB's or Safeties to help, I expect BG to have some open passing lanes to take advantage of.

This game could come down to special teams and the kicking game. South has a pretty good one. How is BG's?

Still going South Oldham 24-21.

I’d say BG’s special teams have been the highlight of the team.

I’d say BG’s special teams have been the highlight of the team.

I don't know if I agree with this. Cause BG's defense has been dang good. BUT if the highlight of your team is special teams, that's not a good thing IMO.