Track The Reds (Week 15)

[AverageJoesGym]

Since Dunn has less plate appearances I used the same stats and projected them to 162 games played batting 4th for their careers.

 

Here's their numbers:

 

Dunn .259 Average 38 Homeruns, 92 RBIs

Howard .272 Average 51 Homeruns, 152 RBIs

 

Wait there's more, in 1058 Games Dunn has been intentionally walked 72 times. In 500 games Howard has been intentionally walked 89 times. However, Dunn, by your own words doesn't have as much protection as Howard yet opposing teams are much more willing to pitch to Dunn. Why? Because all you have to do is throw strike one to him and he's in trouble. Dunn is a career .197 hitter after an 0-1 count.

[Latch]

Dunn is a horrible hitter with runners in scoring position, has been his entire career.

 

How many times do we see Dunn get the runner to 3rd with less than 2 outs, it's those little things that drive me insane that he flat out can't do.

 

That would be considered a cancer to the team.

 

My understanding of cancer on the team and yours are different then. If you say he's not great at getting the guy in from 3rd w/ less than 2 outs I agree. If you say his attitude is the reason for that or for the team not being good I totally disagree. Also, when he came up the "leaders" of the team were Larkin and Griffey. They are both layed back and even took some slack for getting special treatment and leaving the team before the season was over. If you were him who would you look at for guidance? Probably Griffey. That has a lot to do w/ his perception. When Griffey goes I think the team will be looked at as playing harder. Losing Dunn may help in that respect too.

[AverageJoesGym]

I think part of it is b/c you have to pitch to Howard. Why walk a guy that strikes out a lot when you have Utley behind him? For most of Dunn's career he's had nobody in front of him on base that is a threat to steal and nobody behind him who can produce runs like Utley and Burrell. Thus obvioulsy Howard gets more fastballs and more strikes. I think Howard is better, but he's been in a lot better of a position the last few years. What is Rollins' OBP compared to guys who lead off for the Reds? Dunn also has hit between 5-7 more than 3-4 in his career. Partly b/c of the stas you mentioned, but right now he should be hitting 3rd w/ Hairston and Keppinger in front of him.

 

For what its worth in his career in 120 games Dunn is a .221 hitter in the #3 spot with 24 homeruns and 57 RBIs. His numbers there are even worse than at cleanup.

[Latch]

Since Dunn has less plate appearances I used the same stats and projected them to 162 games played batting 4th for their careers.

 

Here's their numbers:

 

Dunn .259 Average 38 Homeruns, 92 RBIs

Howard .272 Average 51 Homeruns, 152 RBIs

 

Wait there's more, in 1058 Games Dunn has been intentionally walked 72 times. In 500 games Howard has been intentionally walked 89 times. However, Dunn, by your own words doesn't have as much protection as Howard yet opposing teams are much more willing to pitch to Dunn. Why? Because all you have to do is throw strike one to him and he's in trouble. Dunn is a career .197 hitter after an 0-1 count.

 

 

Nowhere did I say Dunn was as good as Howard. I said in a hypothetical situation if you traded them for each other the last few years Dunn would drive in 120 runs. Howard will be at 140 or higher. Dunn has had less protection his whole career. Unless you consider an aging Griffey, Casey, Kearns, or EE as good as Rollins, Victorino, Utley, or Burrell. Again Dunn isn't as good as Howard BUT would have more than 100 RBI's IMO.

[westsider]

Dunn is a horrible hitter with runners in scoring position, has been his entire career.

This seems to be a common refrain among Reds fans. Analyzing Dunn's career numbers, thanks to baseball-reference.com, the contention isn't always backed up by the evidence.

 

Dunn's career OPS is .900 ... in his career, his OPS with runners in scoring position is .870 ... a little off the norm, but not drastically so.

 

In "late and close" situations, which are defined as plate appearances in the seventh inning or later with the hitting team up by one or the tying run at least on deck, Dunn's OPS is .875 ... in tie games, Dunn's OPS is .903, right at his career figure.

 

Fans always talk about how Dunn hits "meaningless" homers in games that are lopsided either way. When he comes to the plate with the margin between 1-3 runs, his OPS is about career norm. In games where the margin is four or more, his OPS drops to .836 ... it hardly sounds like he's doing an extraordinary amount of damage in such situations.

 

To contrast that, let's look at Tony Perez, who has a longstanding reputation as a clutch hitter:

 

Perez's career OPS ... .804

RISP, 2 outs ... .782

Late and close ... .860

Tie game ... .798

 

The "late and close" figure backs up Perez's clutch reputation, but the other figures do not.

How many times do we see Dunn get the runner to 3rd with less than 2 outs, it's those little things that drive me insane that he flat out can't do.

 

That would be considered a cancer to the team.

I would consider a "cancer to the team" to be a clubhouse problem, not a guy who is perceived to have failings in the clutch.

 

In conclusion, the problem is this: Dunn's style of hitting isn't necessarily conducive to that of an "RBI spot" ... the 3-5 spots. As I've always contended, his approach, power and ability to get on base fits better in either the #2 spot or in the #6 spot.

[Latch]

For what its worth in his career in 120 games Dunn is a .221 hitter in the #3 spot with 24 homeruns and 57 RBIs. His numbers there are even worse than at cleanup.

 

For what its worth the 4 and 5 hitters were Kearns or Pena or some other hack and the leadoff hitter was Freel or someone else w/ an OBP hovering around .330.

[AverageJoesGym]

When it comes down to it Dunn is not good at all in the #3 or #4 spots and the Reds offense will have as big a hole in it as Dunn has in his swing if he is put in those spots. If they keep Dunn they need to take the money saved from Griffey's contract and spend it on a leadoff hitter--doesn't have to be a speed guy just someone who gets on base. Then you could put a lineup like this out there.

 

1. Leadoff hitter to be named later

2. Phillips

3. Votto

4. Bruce

5. Encarnacion

6. Dunn

 

or

 

1. Leadoff hitter

2. Keppinger

3. Phillips

4. Bruce

5. Votto

6. Encarnacion

7. Dunn

 

In either one of those lineups you don't depend on Dunn to be your main run producer. The key to that is improvement from Bruce, Votto and especially Encarnacion.

[AverageJoesGym]

For what its worth the 4 and 5 hitters were Kearns or Pena or some other hack and the leadoff hitter was Freel or someone else w/ an OBP hovering around .330.

 

They still weren't afraid of him. Did you see my other stat? In 1058 Career Games Dunn has been intentionally walked 72 times. In 500 Games Howard has been intentionally walked 89 Times. You yourself said that they are forced to pitch to Howard more did you not? After all he's in a better lineup with hitters up and down it and Dunn is out there on an island by himself. Yet in less than half the games Howard has been passed more than Dunn has. Why? Because he doesn't hit with men on base. If Dunn scared the other teams that much wouldn't they walk him and pitch to whoever the Reds have hitting 7th? With Howard they walk him to pitch to Burrell because Howard is much more likely to hurt you with runners on base.

[Latch]

When it comes down to it Dunn is not good at all in the #3 or #4 spots and the Reds offense will have as big a hole in it as Dunn has in his swing if he is put in those spots. If they keep Dunn they need to take the money saved from Griffey's contract and spend it on a leadoff hitter--doesn't have to be a speed guy just someone who gets on base. Then you could put a lineup like this out there.

 

1. Leadoff hitter to be named later

2. Phillips

3. Votto

4. Bruce

5. Encarnacion

6. Dunn

 

or

 

1. Leadoff hitter

2. Keppinger

3. Phillips

4. Bruce

5. Votto

6. Encarnacion

7. Dunn

 

In either one of those lineups you don't depend on Dunn to be your main run producer. The key to that is improvement from Bruce, Votto and especially Encarnacion.

 

 

I agree w/ you somewhat, but Dunn should be given the rest of the year in the 2 hole w/ Griffey hitting 7th when he plays. If Hairston and Keppinger continue to get on at a good clip which is probably more unlikely than likely I'd like to see Dunn try to be a 3 hitter the rest of the way. He will command a lot of money and if they are going to pay him that amount they have to have him produce as the 3 hitter. They can't pay him $15M to hit 7th. So my lineup would look like this: or you could switch Kepp and Bruce:

 

Hairston

Keppinger

Dunn

Phillips

Votto

EE

Bruce

C

P

 

Part of his not being a good hitter in the 3 and 4 hole is b/c he had nobody in front of him on and nobody to protect him behind him. The other part is b/c he's not that good of a hitter. I still contend that if he has Phillips, Votto, and EE behind him he sees better pitches than if he has Bako or Ross behind him.

[AverageJoesGym]

For what its worth the 4 and 5 hitters were Kearns or Pena or some other hack and the leadoff hitter was Freel or someone else w/ an OBP hovering around .330.

 

 

Also, remember that 2005 season I mentioned where the Reds led the league in scoring?

 

Dunn had 34 games and 151 Plate Appearances hitting 4th. He batted .240 with 6 HRs and 18 RBIs in what amounts to about 1/4 season. Someone on that team was scoring and driving in over 800 runs yet his numbers projected over 162 games hitting cleanup in the best offense in the league: .240 28 Homeruns, 85 RBIs, 85 Walks (9 intentional) and 166 Strikeouts.

[Latch]

They still weren't afraid of him. Did you see my other stat? In 1058 Career Games Dunn has been intentionally walked 72 times. In 500 Games Howard has been intentionally walked 89 Times. You yourself said that they are forced to pitch to Howard more did you not? After all he's in a better lineup with hitters up and down it and Dunn is out there on an island by himself. Yet in less than half the games Howard has been passed more than Dunn has. Why? Because he doesn't hit with men on base. If Dunn scared the other teams that much wouldn't they walk him and pitch to whoever the Reds have hitting 7th? With Howard they walk him to pitch to Burrell because Howard is much more likely to hurt you with runners on base.

 

They will never be afraid of him, but I think he is better suited to hit 3rd right now than anyone else on this team. He's going to frustrate you if you are a Reds fan or coach, but he's going to hit his HR's w/ more guys on base if he hits 3rd and have more chances per year to hit those HR's.

[Latch]

Also, remember that 2005 season I mentioned where the Reds led the league in scoring?

 

Dunn had 34 games and 151 Plate Appearances hitting 4th. He batted .240 with 6 HRs and 18 RBIs in what amounts to about 1/4 season. Someone on that team was scoring and driving in over 800 runs yet his numbers projected over 162 games hitting cleanup in the best offense in the league: .240 28 Homeruns, 85 RBIs, 85 Walks (9 intentional) and 166 Strikeouts.

 

He's cut down on his K's since then. Who was the team leader in RBI's that year and where did Dunn finish on the team? He is obviously suited better as the second or third run producer on a team. But on this years team he has to be the biggest run producer along w/ Phillips.

[AverageJoesGym]

He's cut down on his K's since then. Who was the team leader in RBI's that year and where did Dunn finish on the team? He is obviously suited better as the second or third run producer on a team. But on this years team he has to be the biggest run producer along w/ Phillips.

 

Has he? Here's his 2008 numbers projected over a full season:

 

.228 41 HRs 99 RBIs 129 BBs and 177 Ks:sssh:

[Latch]

Has he? Here's his 2008 numbers projected over a full season:

 

.228 41 HRs 99 RBIs 129 BBs and 177 Ks:sssh:

 

Actually 2005 wasn't horrible for him as far as K's. But he no longer leads the free world in K's and probably won't be approaching 200 any more. Who was the leader in RBI's that year? Do you honestly believe that he wouldn't drive in more runs hitting 3rd w/ the Phillies this year than hitting 5-7 for the Reds this year?

[HOMELESS CAMEL]

Hairston has developed into a solid leadoff hitter and has keyed the Reds’ recent run, going 14-for-32 (.438) with five RBIs, seven runs and three steals over the last eight games.

 

“We couldn’t be where we are (without him). He’s been awesome,” Reds manager Dusty Baker told the team’s official Web site.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/preview;_ylt=AhvZNJalvrV.AMGL92eIyq45nYcB?gid=280708116

 

Couldn't be where we are without him?? Exactly, where are the Reds right now?