Mayfield vs. Owensboro Catholic Predictions/Updates (2A State Championship)

[jeff jackson]

11 minutes ago, Tracy House said:

Ok, I will give you one, generally speaking, most of the time, when Paducah Tilghman beats Mayfield, Mayfield wins a state championship, I get what everyone is saying, I like to virtually stir the pot

Instigator from way back. Love it. lol

[ApolloFan98]

Boy, am I looking forward to this one!  I have had the pleasure of getting to call 7 of the 14 victories for the Aces this season and they sure have been a lot of fun to watch.  I believe Brady Atwell to be the best QB in the state but I do think he needs to prove that to a lot of people on Friday.  That is including college coaches.  The fact he only has one offer tells me that some people think he can only put up these video game numbers against lesser competition. We're going to find out on Friday.  I have a ton of respect for Mayfield and that program.  I have even more respect for them after taking down LCA and Beechwood in back to back weeks. That said, I think a lot of people in this thread are underrating Owensboro Catholic.  Outside of a city rivalry game against Owensboro, they have not been challenged this year.  It's hard to deny how they have handled every single opponent with relative ease.

I think the matchup of the game will be Starks vs the Owensboro Catholic run defense.  The Aces front 7 have been a bit underrated this year.  They are led by Vince Carrico who is one of the states top tacklers.  Lyon, Cartwright and Evans are the 3 down lineman who completely dominated Somerset in while the game was still in doubt on Friday.  Those 3 guys do not get enough credit.  I know Starks will be the best back Catholic has seen, but I thought the run defense was great in games against Long from Greenwood, Burris from Henderson and Winstead & Hampton from Owensboro.  This should be a great matchup to watch.

As far as the Owensboro Catholic offense, Atwell obviously makes everything go.  Tutt Carrico is a big bodied kid who is about as athletic as they come.  He is close to setting the state's single season TD reception record and he has been unstoppable in the playoffs.  If you try to give him too much attention, the Aces can shift their focus to Noah Rhinerson, Warren Ebelhar or Duce Sims.  The backs can all catch the ball as well.  Miles Edge and Eli Blair can be big time players if called upon.  I know statistically it looks like Catholic can't run the ball much but I think that is more choice than ability.  When they want to go heavy, they throw Tutt and Vince Carrico in the backfield with Atwell they can absolutely go power run if they need to.  

This game could go either way.  I think the big game experience for Mayfield is a major advantage.  Knowing the Catholic kids, I do not think they will get wide eyed at Kroger, but you just never know.  Even if the Mayfield defense plays well, I think they will need to score more than 35 to win it.  I'll wait until later in the week to make my prediction.

[still 55]

I have been studying film from games OC played against Owensboro, North Hardin and Somerset. These were the games that I could get video of. I also could have used Crittendon County but don’t see the reason. These are the math results on those games. 
 

Passing:  OC passed the ball 61% of the time

Left side 37%, middle 24% and right side 38%
 

Run: OC ran the ball 39% of the time

Left side 11%, middle 69% and right side 20%
 

OC had 8 penalties or roughly 3 per game for a total of 70 yards. 
 

Qb got sacked 3 times, 1 time per game avg

 

qb threw 1 int. They lost 4 fumbles. That is 5 turnovers or close to 2 per game. 
 

I noticed most of their runs to the right are by qb. Qb also contributed in runs up the middle. Most of OC big runs were by qb. A good portion of passes in the middle were screens. The passes to the left or right side were where OC tries chunk plays. Qb runs a lot like former Mayfield qb Armstrong. He has a good arm, not as good as Beechwood qb. Qb is punter as well. I saw their kicker make a 33 yard fg but, not sure he could do much more. 

[Kyfootballking]

14 minutes ago, ApolloFan98 said:

Boy, am I looking forward to this one!  I have had the pleasure of getting to call 7 of the 14 victories for the Aces this season and they sure have been a lot of fun to watch.  I believe Brady Atwell to be the best QB in the state but I do think he needs to prove that to a lot of people on Friday.  That is including college coaches.  The fact he only has one offer tells me that some people think he can only put up these video game numbers against lesser competition. We're going to find out on Friday.  I have a ton of respect for Mayfield and that program.  I have even more respect for them after taking down LCA and Beechwood in back to back weeks. That said, I think a lot of people in this thread are underrating Owensboro Catholic.  Outside of a city rivalry game against Owensboro, they have not been challenged this year.  It's hard to deny how they have handled every single opponent with relative ease.

I think the matchup of the game will be Starks vs the Owensboro Catholic run defense.  The Aces front 7 have been a bit underrated this year.  They are led by Vince Carrico who is one of the states top tacklers.  Lyon, Cartwright and Evans are the 3 down lineman who completely dominated Somerset in while the game was still in doubt on Friday.  Those 3 guys do not get enough credit.  I know Starks will be the best back Catholic has seen, but I thought the run defense was great in games against Long from Greenwood, Burris from Henderson and Winstead & Hampton from Owensboro.  This should be a great matchup to watch.

As far as the Owensboro Catholic offense, Atwell obviously makes everything go.  Tutt Carrico is a big bodied kid who is about as athletic as they come.  He is close to setting the state's single season TD reception record and he has been unstoppable in the playoffs.  If you try to give him too much attention, the Aces can shift their focus to Noah Rhinerson, Warren Ebelhar or Duce Sims.  The backs can all catch the ball as well.  Miles Edge and Eli Blair can be big time players if called upon.  I know statistically it looks like Catholic can't run the ball much but I think that is more choice than ability.  When they want to go heavy, they throw Tutt and Vince Carrico in the backfield with Atwell they can absolutely go power run if they need to.  

This game could go either way.  I think the big game experience for Mayfield is a major advantage.  Knowing the Catholic kids, I do not think they will get wide eyed at Kroger, but you just never know.  Even if the Mayfield defense plays well, I think they will need to score more than 35 to win it.  I'll wait until later in the week to make my prediction.

Good write up. Question (and you may not have seen enough of the Beechwood qb to say for sure), but what do you make of those who say Atwells arm isn't as string. I've seen only 1 Beechwood game, but I find it extremely hard to believe his arm is stronger. I've routinely seen Atwell throw it 60 yards with ease. Thoughts?

[still 55]

9 minutes ago, Kyfootballking said:

Good write up. Question (and you may not have seen enough of the Beechwood qb to say for sure), but what do you make of those who say Atwells arm isn't as string. I've seen only 1 Beechwood game, but I find it extremely hard to believe his arm is stronger. I've routinely seen Atwell throw it 60 yards with ease. Thoughts?

Go to YouTube and put in Beechwood vs Mayfield. You can get the game from Friday. Watch his throws. His arm is better than what I saw out of Boley. He moves well and is fast. However, Atwell has more strength. 

[theguru]

Just now, still 55 said:

Go to YouTube and put in Beechwood vs Mayfield. You can get the game from Friday. Watch his throws. His arm is better than what I saw out of Boley. He moves well and is fast. However, Atwell has more strength. 

 

[Kyfootballking]

1 minute ago, still 55 said:

Go to YouTube and put in Beechwood vs Mayfield. You can get the game from Friday. Watch his throws. His arm is better than what I saw out of Boley. He moves well and is fast. However, Atwell has more strength. 

That's actually the game I watched. I agree - better than Boley, who I've seen maybe 4 times. Beechwood kid is really good, my bias just tells me Atwell is the best in the state. Both great players, though. 

[ApolloFan98]

10 minutes ago, Kyfootballking said:

Good write up. Question (and you may not have seen enough of the Beechwood qb to say for sure), but what do you make of those who say Atwells arm isn't as string. I've seen only 1 Beechwood game, but I find it extremely hard to believe his arm is stronger. I've routinely seen Atwell throw it 60 yards with ease. Thoughts?

I don't know that I have heard Atwell's arm strength called into question?  I just know what I have seen from him the past 2 seasons.  He is a big kid who is VERY strong and can escape pressure and make any throw you need within that offense.  I have seen him throw guys open more often than not.  The rapport he has with his receivers is about as good as I have ever seen on a high school level. He goes through his progressions well and stands tall under pressure when he needs to.  I'm looking forward to seeing if he can be the same guy I have seen all season vs a very good Mayfield defense.

[Mr. Neutral]

Hayden for sure is the best qb I’ve seen. His passes are effortless. He puts it right in his receivers hands.

Edited November 27, 2023 by theguru

[Big East Zebra]

After having read through this topic, we can probably all agree that the winner will have to be strong in all 3 phases of the game, offense, defense and special teams, and the team that makes the fewest mistakes will probably win. We will probably agree that players will make plays, on both sides of the ball. But I think there is one little tangible tidbit we maybe overlooking. What's that you ask? The Morris' Joe and Jason the Head Coaches. Who will have the better game plan? Who will put his players in position to make the necessary plays at the necessary time. No disrespect towards Jason, but Joe and his staff has been here and done that, and has the rings to prove it. I think I trust Joe and his staff to do all the right crossing of the I's and dotting of the T's to get this done. They have certainly played in more "big time" atmosphere's than OC has.  Does that mean anything? We will all find out on Friday!

Edited November 27, 2023 by Big East Zebra
Misspelled word.

[Kyfootballking]

24 minutes ago, Mr. Neutral said:

Hayden for sure is the best qb I’ve seen. His passes are effortless. He puts it right in his receivers hands.

Hayden is very good - if interested, watch this short video of Atwells highlights, and see some of the pinpoint passes he makes too. 

[jeff jackson]

25 minutes ago, Kyfootballking said:

Hayden is very good - if interested, watch this short video of Atwells highlights, and see some of the pinpoint passes he makes too. 

I have to admit, this kid has it all. Rocket for an arm, but, also can tone it down and make the more catchable pass when needed. Kid's also got great size and mobility. Better runner than I would have thought, also. He may not have that many offers yet, which I don't understand, he'll be getting some big time offers this time next year. I hope he will make some QB camps over the summer and show off what he's got. Reminds me of a young Will Levis. 

[DaTruth]

19 minutes ago, Kyfootballking said:

Hayden is very good - if interested, watch this short video of Atwells highlights, and see some of the pinpoint passes he makes too. 

Love the video and I am very surprised he only has 1 offer. May I ask who that offer is from? What these colleges look for in a athlete/football prospect has baffled me and with him having 1 offer makes me more baffled because he's definitely a athlete and a heck of a prospect. Tell him to just be patient they'll come. I would probably even pick him as my QB at next level because of his athletic ability. With all that being said I will hold off my pick of whose better until after the Mayfield game. Sometimes video don't give due justice as I was not that impressed with Hayden until I seen up close and personal his QB savyness is what impressed me the most..so let's see what he can do against Mayfield. As good as he maybe as I said with LCA receivers that ran through big bad Boyle Co. Secondary that's not happening against Mayfield and it didn't. OC receivers won't run through Mayfields Secondary either...man again this is the matchup on the backend...

[snakesnot_2000]

1 hour ago, Kyfootballking said:

Hayden is very good - if interested, watch this short video of Atwells highlights, and see some of the pinpoint passes he makes too. 

He looks like the real deal. But let's see if his receivers get the separation against Mayfield that they do here. I also like  that he has some wheels, he looks hard to bring down. I'm no expert on what makes a good college QB but he certainly passes the eye test.

[Astro Domino]

In my opinion, the hardest thing to prepare for in football is a dual threat QB, especially one with his size and arm strength. This could be Mayfield’s toughest test yet.