Mayfield vs. Owensboro Catholic Predictions/Updates (2A State Championship)

[Astro Domino]

5 minutes ago, Brown said:

I've already addressed Starks being out at Owensboro - read above.

PT - 5 TD's against Mayfield all offensive (over 400 yards of offense)

LCA - 5 TD's against Mayfield all offensive (over 500 yards of offense)

Beechwood - 4 TD's against Mayfield all offensive (over 500 yards of offense)

 

Mayfields offense has been superb and has bailed their defense out in these games.  While the defense has had timely turnovers, they yield a boatload of yards and give up a decent amount of points in these games.  This is not a great Mayfield defense - not to their standards.  That's why I think Catholic beats them.  If Catholic gets 400-500 yards of offense, I believe they will score 42+.  

I agree with a lot of that but OCath put up 418 yards of offense against Owensboro, with Atwell accounting for 380 of it, and they only scored 33.

[Astro Domino]

I just don’t see OCath scoring more on Mayfield than anyone else has this year but I could definitely be wrong. LCAs 36 is the season high given up by Mayfield so far.

[Bud_Kilmer]

IMO if OC is to win this game it will be beacuse their defense played their best game a limited Starks, and their offense had 0 turnovers. If they can do that, the Aces will have a chance. If not, then I don't think it's happening.

[Brown]

If either team loses the TO battle by 2, they will lose I agree.  Of course I said that in the BG/O game and it wouldn't have mattered if BG turned it over 4 times.

[Brown]

40 minutes ago, Astro Domino said:

I agree with a lot of that but OCath put up 418 yards of offense against Owensboro, with Atwell accounting for 380 of it, and they only scored 33.

Good point - if OCath plays like it did vs O all around they will lose.  

[ApolloFan98]

The weather forecast for Friday certainly doesn't favor Owensboro Catholic.  I hope it changes before then.

[Cardinal4Life06]

33 minutes ago, ApolloFan98 said:

The weather forecast for Friday certainly doesn't favor Owensboro Catholic.  I hope it changes before then.

As of right now, forecast is showing most of the rain falling into the early morning. A steady rain will be present for the evening.

[still 55]

2 hours ago, Brown said:

I've already addressed Starks being out at Owensboro - read above.

PT - 5 TD's against Mayfield all offensive (over 400 yards of offense)

LCA - 5 TD's against Mayfield all offensive (over 500 yards of offense)

Beechwood - 4 TD's against Mayfield all offensive (over 500 yards of offense)

 

Mayfields offense has been superb and has bailed their defense out in these games.  While the defense has had timely turnovers, they yield a boatload of yards and give up a decent amount of points in these games.  This is not a great Mayfield defense - not to their standards.  That's why I think Catholic beats them.  If Catholic gets 400-500 yards of offense, I believe they will score 42+.  

You are totally missing the point. It was not necessarily the offense. The defense scored or set up a lot of those scores. Look at the yardage numbers overall versus the yardage overall for offense by LCA, Beechwood or OC. You will see that Mayfield’s numbers appear skewed because they are scoring with or better than those teams and have a lot less yardage. That is because of the way the defense sets them up. For instance the LCA game changed on 2 pick 6’s and another pick. The defense in today’s world allows movement but capitalizes on mistakes. You see that from the NFL down. It’s a change brought on by the spread offenses and great running qb’s. 

[still 55]

Here is how it stacks up so you can get an idea of what I mean. 
 

1). Mayfield 49.5 points per game

2). OC. 48 points per game

3). Beechwood. 47.5 points per game

4). LCA. 46 points per game. 
 

yardage:

1) OC. 5942 on year

2) LCA. 5483 on year

3) Beechwood  5,409 on year

4) Mayfield. 4967 on year

 

So where does Mayfield make up the points?

[OldSchool45]

My 2cents.  Easy to make points and yardage on inferior opponents.  OC opponents record 77-89 vs Cardinal opponents record 82-75.  Also OC played 1 more game to get more yardage total so that should be an average per game number to be somewhat more accurate but still can be skewed by lesser opponents.  Bottom line we will see Friday afternoon because either team makes mistake the other has the advantage.  I been a Cardinal fan a long long time but I played and watched a lot of football over the years and know these are just kids doing the best they can do and anything can happen.  Never seen a game won or lost on here.  Good luck to both teams me personally I will be cheering on the Cardinals!!!! 

[still 55]

Cards can survive a couple turnovers. 

[FB Head]

3 hours ago, Brown said:

I've already addressed Starks being out at Owensboro - read above.

PT - 5 TD's against Mayfield all offensive (over 400 yards of offense)

LCA - 5 TD's against Mayfield all offensive (over 500 yards of offense)

Beechwood - 4 TD's against Mayfield all offensive (over 500 yards of offense)

 

Mayfields offense has been superb and has bailed their defense out in these games.  While the defense has had timely turnovers, they yield a boatload of yards and give up a decent amount of points in these games.  This is not a great Mayfield defense - not to their standards.  That's why I think Catholic beats them.  If Catholic gets 400-500 yards of offense, I believe they will score 42+.  

Murray also had 422 yards in their playoff game.  They also had no run defense as JuJu went for 250+ that game.

 

[Toothpick]

Fodder for thought:

Calpreps

Mayfield #1101

3 Best wins: LCA #1359, Beechwood #2080, Graves Co. #3653

OC #1310

3 Best Wins: Owensboro #2065, Greenwood #4035, Henderson #4255

 

TP94 Power Ratings (11-28-23)

Class 2A:

 

Mayfield		70.93
Owensboro Catholic		70.88

 

[Toothpick]

I don't think OC has faced a QB of Cartwright's caliber or Starks caliber after trolling their games. Thoughts on anyone they have faced as good? 

[still 55]

I’m hoping someone can help me out with this. I noticed both teams have turned in their rosters to KHSAA for the championship. They have not yet turned in their probable starters two deep chart. My question is, how can OC leave #9 off the rosters when he obviously starts on offense and defense?