Shaedon Sharpe Ruled Eligible For NBA Draft

[MJAlltheWay24]

Cal put out a message ending all speculation about whether or not Sharpe will be playing this year:

Probably a smart move for Cal and Sharpe/his family to end all speculation.

[TheDeuce]

Kid may be in a tough spot if he doesn't go pro. A year of speculation and then say he doesn't live up to the hype. Hopefully that isn't the case. 

[4 Quarters]

2 hours ago, TheDeuce said:

Kid may be in a tough spot if he doesn't go pro. A year of speculation and then say he doesn't live up to the hype. Hopefully that isn't the case. 

He could also be a dud in the NBA.  At least in college he has time to recover.

[gchs_uk9]

1 hour ago, 4 Quarters said:

He could also be a dud in the NBA.  At least in college he has time to recover.

Maybe. But he's a projected top-10 pick right now. If he was the 10th pick he'd get $3.6 million his first year, $3.8 million his second. No amount of NIL is paying that at UK. I'm a UK fan and would love to see him in blue and white, but if that money is an option he'd be foolish not to take it.

[bugatti]

I've told my friends from the start that I would be surprised if he ever suits up in a game for UK. That's just not how this works.

[gchs_uk9]

It is a different world today than just a couple years ago, but Kyle Tucker had a very interesting piece in The Athletic comparing Sharpe to Hamidou Diallo and how Diallo benefited from sitting a semester then coming back the next year. I still think the NBA money is too good to come back. 

[DragonFire]

Sharpe is going to live the dream of every player in the one and done era - he never has to set foot on a college court, never has to go overseas or play in the G league - he gets to essentially go straight from what was his senior high school year on to the NBA, get drafted in the lottery, and get paid.  Selfishly, I want him to come back to Kentucky.  Realistically, I know that Cal will encourage him to not take the risk and go get the guaranteed money.

[4 Quarters]

1 hour ago, gchs_uk9 said:

Maybe. But he's a projected top-10 pick right now. If he was the 10th pick he'd get $3.6 million his first year, $3.8 million his second. No amount of NIL is paying that at UK. I'm a UK fan and would love to see him in blue and white, but if that money is an option he'd be foolish not to take it.

Did this kid play any games in HS this season?

[gchs_uk9]

10 minutes ago, 4 Quarters said:

Did this kid play any games in HS this season?

I don’t believe so but someone more in-the-know will need to confirm. 

[MBWC41]

He’d be a fool not to go if he’s top 10. 
Too much money at stake to pass up.

A few years ago Cal would pushed him towards the draft. A 9 win season may have humbled him a bit though. 

[TheDeuce]

53 minutes ago, MBWC41 said:

He’d be a fool not to go if he’s top 10. 
Too much money at stake to pass up.

A few years ago Cal would pushed him towards the draft. A 9 win season may have humbled him a bit though. 

Let’s not kid ourselves… No kid is passing up being a Top 15 draft pick. Not one. 

[Voice of Reason]

How much does Sharpe make in NIL money this year and next?

[ChickenWyngz]

11 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

How much does Sharpe make in NIL money this year and next?

Not the 7.4 million he'd miss out on if he's a top 10 pick, IMO, but I do think he could really rake it in with the UK fanbase. 

[MJAlltheWay24]

I'm sure he'd make more by being drafted in the top ten this year than NIL next year.  But Matt Jones was speculating that he could be the first college player to sign a shoe deal, which would make things regarding NIL interesting.

[Voice of Reason]

31 minutes ago, ChickenWyngz said:

Not the 7.4 million he'd miss out on if he's a top 10 pick, IMO, but I do think he could really rake it in with the UK fanbase. 

There's a financial calculation in this.

First, he's only going to miss out on one year of NBA money. That is the 7.4 million you mention. But that is #2 pick money. I don't see him listed anywhere as the #2 pick. Most have him projected at #6 if he enters the 2022 draft, which is 5 million year one. That takes us to point number 2.

Second, and the most important and difficult variable to predict, NBA draft position. If Sharpe is picked #6, his first year salary is just under 5 million. If he plays next year for UK and can get to the #1 or 2 pick in 2023, he gains 2.4 million at #2 and 3.4 million at the #1 pick. But that only looks at year one. NBA draft picks get 4 year deals, guaranteed years 1 and 2, then options for years 3 and 4. The difference in being the #2 pick over #6 is 5.1 million the first two years and 7.9 million the first three years.

 Based on all that I don't think it is nearly as clear cut that it makes financial sense to go into the draft this year. It is a tough decision and really one that can't be predicted with any certainty either way.  If I am looking at it as Sharp and his agent, I am going to try to get to that number 1 or 2 pick. It is highly unlikely that Sharpe, without playing this season, could go any higher than 4.

From what I have read about Sharpe, he is a somewhat late developing player who has come on very quickly the last couple years. There are still a number of holes in his game, with ball handling and shooting being listed by analysts as areas that need more development.  I think he is on a great track of development by working out now and through the summer and then getting the chance to show his skills and development next season at UK, the goal being the number one pick in the 2023 draft. If that happens, Sharpe makes more by playing next year at UK than going into the draft this year.