2023-2024 Football Realignment

[gchs_uk9]

4 minutes ago, Kanaka Kahakai said:

Can anybody guess or have some insight on Douglass, Scott Co and Great Crossing moving up to 6A or stay at 5A? Also if Lexington Catholic and/ or Boyle Co. moving down to 3A or staying at 4A? Thanks.

I don't think anyone can give a firm opinion on that until the enrollment numbers for 2021-22 come in. Once we see those and then have three years worth of data (along with knowledge of potential wild swings due to Covid), you might be able to give a more firm estimate of what the next alignment will look like. Until then, it's mostly just prognosticating based on two (out of four) years worth of data.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

On 1/19/2022 at 12:29 PM, gchs_uk9 said:

I don't believe there was enrollment data for 2020-21 because of Covid and virtual learning. The 2021-22 enrollment data should be up soon but it doesn't become official until the 100th day of school. With so many schools starting in late-August that 100th day is a little later than normal.

I could be wrong but I was under the impression the KHSAA was going to include the 2022-23 data in the 2023-26 alignment, meaning the data would be available in January 2023, the alignment made in the the spring of 2023, and the schedules begin in the fall of 2023, a much tighter window than normally used.

16 hours ago, All State Baseball said:

I may have looked over it, if so, someone please let me know, but when is KHSAA suppose to do the realignment?

15 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

For the 2023 season.

1 hour ago, All State Baseball said:

Sorry. I meant when are they suppose to release the actual alignment for the 2023-26 cycle?

From yesterday's Board Of Control session...

Commissioner Tackett: "We'd heard rumors that KDE was collecting growth factor reports and just weren't publishing. KDE has confirmed, they've not received growth factor reports from all the districts for the last two years, so we don't have a good set of numbers that have been audited and checked that we can use for classification, and won't have that first set until the '22-'23 school year. So as we've said the last three meetings, we know that process is on every coach's mind and every school's mind and there's already rumors going around about who's moving...and without numbers you don't know anything. So until we get those numbers, everything is just somebody's guess."

 

[Voice of Reason]

On 1/19/2022 at 12:29 PM, gchs_uk9 said:

I don't believe there was enrollment data for 2020-21 because of Covid and virtual learning. The 2021-22 enrollment data should be up soon but it doesn't become official until the 100th day of school. With so many schools starting in late-August that 100th day is a little later than normal.

I could be wrong but I was under the impression the KHSAA was going to include the 2022-23 data in the 2023-26 alignment, meaning the data would be available in January 2023, the alignment made in the the spring of 2023, and the schedules begin in the fall of 2023, a much tighter window than normally used.

 

2 hours ago, All State Baseball said:

Sorry. I meant when are they suppose to release the actual alignment for the 2023-26 cycle?

gchs in top post is saying alignment won't be decided till 2023.

[barrel]

5 hours ago, KY Outsider said:

HHS will stay wherever CovCath is. Regardless of size, HHS shouldn't drop down simply due to the amount of 5A versus 4A schools in their area.

Has nothing to do with the number of 4A to 5A. It’s that they are a 4A school. Heck JC should be sending them thank you cards every year. HHS should play up a class just because Cov Cath is there. They can play each other without being in the same class. 
 

I think the common belief is that Great Crossings, and Douglas move up to 6A and Scott Co stays 5A. 

[gcbleedblue]

On 1/18/2022 at 12:13 PM, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

I'm not completely positive on special circumstances, to be honest. I know they do take consideration for geographic isolation, if the team petitions about that.

With the exception of geographic isolation allowing for schools to move up, and then new schools that have to work off projected numbers instead of 4-year averages, I don't know of any reason that things aren't basically a straight numbers situation. I can't think of any other special circumstances that have impacted things previously....but that certainly doesn't mean there may not have been some special circumstances moves before.

Not sure whether or not this helps at all, but, from the KHSAA's Draft 2019 Alignment Procedures:
 

Schools should be mindful that there are several required drafting parameters in constructing the alignment that are designed to eliminate subjectivity including, but not limited to, the following list:

1. The smallest 32 teams (after playing up decisions were final) were placed in Class 1A and the largest 32 teams were placed in Class 6A. The remaining teams were distributed evenly among Classes 2A through 5A
2. A minimum of four teams per district (unless absolutely geographically not feasible). If less than four are assigned, playoff alterations are addressed.
3. The time for playing into a higher class has expired for this alignment period (2019-2022 seasons)
4. All enrollment suggested modifications have been considered and no further alterations will be considered.
5. Historically vulnerable teams (that have pulled out of postseason competition in the past) will likely be placed in district with at least five teams in case of withdrawal during alignment (to prevent byes in postseason)
6. Suggested changes should be supported by documentable travel concerns with reasonable alternative solutions that do not conflict with other parameters (such as teams in a district)
7. Competition concerns due to past or current success by opponents will not be considered.
8. Comments issued with requested changes should concern solely the member school making the request. Comments requesting third party changes (i.e. School A requesting School B to change) will not be considered at this point.
9. Schools requesting multiple changes that include the responding school should ensure collaboration with all impacted schools

Please feel free to direct any other questions to the Commissioner’s at the KHSAA offices.

If there is a school that is geographically isolated its Graves County. Our closest District Game is an hour and 45 minutes away.  Our next closest is over 2 hours. Our farthest is 2 hours and 40 minutes. Our enrollment has been steadily dropping and with the impact of the tornado, I could see us sliding to 4A possibly sometime soon.

For reference, our farthest 4A District game would be only an hour 45 minutes away.

[rjal]

On 1/19/2022 at 12:50 PM, Voice of Reason said:

Agree. Holy Cross is below 180 boys and the cut line last time was 191. They look like a drop to 1A. Newport is in the 195-200 range so they are on the cusp depending on how that puzzle plays out.

Agree I think HC total enrollment is 320-340.  Also if you look closely at the numbers from the former alignment the number of boys put in for 17/18 is actually the total enrollment not number of boys.  So when the average is done with more accurate numbers they were actually just on the cusp of 1A depending on what that number really was.  They were trending down.  It would have been close.  How will that work with the districts?  Currently the NKY 1A is Bellevue, Dayton, NCC, Ludlow with Brossart playing in a more southern district correct?

[Voice of Reason]

7 minutes ago, rjal said:

Agree I think HC total enrollment is 320-340.  Also if you look closely at the numbers from the former alignment the number of boys put in for 17/18 is actually the total enrollment not number of boys.  So when the average is done with more accurate numbers they were actually just on the cusp of 1A depending on what that number really was.  They were trending down.  It would have been close.  How will that work with the districts?  Currently the NKY 1A is Bellevue, Dayton, NCC, Ludlow with Brossart playing in a more southern district correct?

Too early to say on districts. Too many variables. For example, there is a small chance Newport could also go to 1A. Until next year when the enrollment numbers are out, it is all a guessing game.

[gchs_uk9]

1 hour ago, gcbleedblue said:

If there is a school that is geographically isolated its Graves County. Our closest District Game is an hour and 45 minutes away.  Our next closest is over 2 hours. Our farthest is 2 hours and 40 minutes. Our enrollment has been steadily dropping and with the impact of the tornado, I could see us sliding to 4A possibly sometime soon.

For reference, our farthest 4A District game would be only an hour 45 minutes away.

I think Graves County dropping to 4A is very unlikely. Under the last realignment they were the 9th largest 5A school in a group of 40. While the numbers show a decline, I think Graves County will still be in 5A in 2023-26. Now the alignment after that could see them drop. But that's a long way away.

[gcbleedblue]

2 hours ago, gchs_uk9 said:

I think Graves County dropping to 4A is very unlikely. Under the last realignment they were the 9th largest 5A school in a group of 40. While the numbers show a decline, I think Graves County will still be in 5A in 2023-26. Now the alignment after that could see them drop. But that's a long way away.

You are highly underestimating the number of students we are losing. Local news station did a story a few years ago that Graves is losing about 10-15 kids a year. People are just moving off because there is zero industry left on Mayfield/Graves County area. Sadly I only see it getting worse for the people around here. 

[GOREDDEVILS]

I could see Ashland moving back up to 4A.

[football momanager]

On 1/18/2022 at 10:47 AM, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

If you look to the previous go-around for realignment, the KHSAA ought to be starting that discussion any day now.

Football alignments last for 4 years, and 2022 will be the final season for the current alignment. They release a first draft of the alignment, then schools have a couple of months to request to move up or down based on the terms allowed by the KHSAA for playing up/down in class before the Board Of Control reviews and finalizes the the final draft of the alignment. They will also sometimes release an interim realignment at the halfway point if there are any teams that have dropped out of KHSAA competition and in some cases if a team has newly started competing in KHSAA football.

Here are the releases of the current 2019-2022 alignment from the KHSAA:

Draft Alignment 2019-2022 (Released 02-21-2018)

BOC Approved Alignment of Teams 2019-2022 (Released 05-09-2018)

Updated Alignment of Teams 2021-2022 (Released 10-20-2020)

Is 2023 when OC is rumored to move back to 6A District 5?

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

29 minutes ago, football momanager said:

Is 2023 when OC is rumored to move back to 6A District 5?

I don't know what truth there is or isn't to the rumor about changing back to their previous district, but the district alignment changes would come along with all of the classification changes in 2023, yes.

Usually part of the input received from schools after the initial alignment draft is released is feedback from schools/AD's saying, "Hey, do you think you could move us from the district in the draft to this other district so we don't have to travel so much?"

I'm not sure what the OC crowd would prefer...6AD5 where they have to deal with Ballard and Trinity every year, but travel much less, or 6AD8 where they're coping with drives to Bryan Station, GRC, and Madison Central for district games.

[Tigerpride94]

On 1/21/2022 at 1:10 PM, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

I don't know what truth there is or isn't to the rumor about changing back to their previous district, but the district alignment changes would come along with all of the classification changes in 2023, yes.

Usually part of the input received from schools after the initial alignment draft is released is feedback from schools/AD's saying, "Hey, do you think you could move us from the district in the draft to this other district so we don't have to travel so much?"

I'm not sure what the OC crowd would prefer...6AD5 where they have to deal with Ballard and Trinity every year, but travel much less, or 6AD8 where they're coping with drives to Bryan Station, GRC, and Madison Central for district games.

I think OC would rather travel than be in district with Trinity, but maybe that changes since have former Trinity player as coach.

[futurecoach]

On 1/20/2022 at 4:34 PM, rjal said:

Agree I think HC total enrollment is 320-340.  Also if you look closely at the numbers from the former alignment the number of boys put in for 17/18 is actually the total enrollment not number of boys.  So when the average is done with more accurate numbers they were actually just on the cusp of 1A depending on what that number really was.  They were trending down.  It would have been close.  How will that work with the districts?  Currently the NKY 1A is Bellevue, Dayton, NCC, Ludlow with Brossart playing in a more southern district correct?

 

On 1/20/2022 at 4:44 PM, Voice of Reason said:

Too early to say on districts. Too many variables. For example, there is a small chance Newport could also go to 1A. Until next year when the enrollment numbers are out, it is all a guessing game.

It would be fun to see basically two NKY districts in 1A. 
 

One district of:

Bellevue

Dayton

Holy Cross

Ludlow

 

The other district of:

Brossart

Newport

Newport Central Catholic 

Bracken County

 

[Voice of Reason]

16 minutes ago, futurecoach said:

 

It would be fun to see basically two NKY districts in 1A. 
 

One district of:

Bellevue

Dayton

Holy Cross

Ludlow

 

The other district of:

Brossart

Newport

Newport Central Catholic 

Then not sure of who the 4th team would be though?

 

Bracken County

But you have the east west factor to deal with also. Brossart and Bracken County are east. Newport Catholic is west.