22 hours ago, ATLCat said:

One other key school I haven't seen mentioned is I would say there is a very noticeable chance you may see Belfry dropping down to 2A.

They were the 7th smallest 3A school on a downward trajectory on the latest alignment and have only lost more students since. Roughly the cutoff line between 2A & 3A was right around 600 enrollment... Belfry has since fallen below the 600 line.

In this year's Championship Belfry had a published enrollment of 579. Obviously, male enrollment is the key.. but this could be a big development for the Class 2A scene.

Also on the 2A front, Pikeville is going to be close to the line of moving up to 2A as well. They were one of the larger 1A schools and their enrollment for what I gather has stayed pretty consistent over the past four years. If there are a handful of the more rural 2A schools that have lost enrollment, this could be an interesting development.

Suffice to say, if both Belfry and Pikeville end up 2A it really creates an interesting new dynamic in that class.

Looks like the Belfry is listed was the 7th-smallest school in 3A in the 2019-2022 alignment with a 4-yr average of 332.5 boys. The smallest 3A school (Morgan County) was at 322.3 boys, and the largest 2A school (Knott Central) was at 321.5 boys.

The 2018-19 KHSAA Audited School Enrollment report shows Belfry at 321 boys, and the 2019-20 KHSAA Audited School Enrollment shows Belfry at 315 boys, for a two-year average of 318 boys. (The KHSAA hasn't published the 2020-21 or 2021-22 enrollment data yet.) Belfry is definitely on the verge of dropping to 2A.
 

23 minutes ago, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

The 2018-19 KHSAA Audited School Enrollment report shows Belfry at 321 boys, and the 2019-20 KHSAA Audited School Enrollment shows Belfry at 315 boys, for a two-year average of 318 boys. (The KHSAA hasn't published the 2020-21 or 2021-22 enrollment data yet.) Belfry is definitely on the verge of dropping to 2A.

I don't believe there was enrollment data for 2020-21 because of Covid and virtual learning. The 2021-22 enrollment data should be up soon but it doesn't become official until the 100th day of school. With so many schools starting in late-August that 100th day is a little later than normal.

I could be wrong but I was under the impression the KHSAA was going to include the 2022-23 data in the 2023-26 alignment, meaning the data would be available in January 2023, the alignment made in the the spring of 2023, and the schedules begin in the fall of 2023, a much tighter window than normally used.

N. Ky. 2A and 1A looks like it will change. Covington Holy Cross is almost surely dropping to 1A. Newport looks like it also might drop to 1A. 

17 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

N. Ky. 2A and 1A looks like it will change. Covington Holy Cross is almost surely dropping to 1A. Newport looks like it also might drop to 1A. 

Not saying you are right or wrong, but remember when considering numbers that it is a 223-piece puzzle. Your numbers could drop but if others drop more (or raise higher) you may not be moving classes.

I'm very interested to see how the numbers flesh out for Jefferson County, especially the schools that typically fall between 3A-5A. There was so much talk about kids not being in school and people not really knowing where they were during the Covid school year, I'm curious if those schools might have seen a precipitous drop that could completely alter the normal alignment. 

12 minutes ago, gchs_uk9 said:

Not saying you are right or wrong, but remember when considering numbers that it is a 223-piece puzzle. Your numbers could drop but if others drop more (or raise higher) you may not be moving classes.

I'm very interested to see how the numbers flesh out for Jefferson County, especially the schools that typically fall between 3A-5A. There was so much talk about kids not being in school and people not really knowing where they were, I'm curious if those schools might have seen a precipitous drop that could completely alter the normal alignment. 

Agree. Holy Cross is below 180 boys and the cut line last time was 191. They look like a drop to 1A. Newport is in the 195-200 range so they are on the cusp depending on how that puzzle plays out.

1 hour ago, gchs_uk9 said:

I don't believe there was enrollment data for 2020-21 because of Covid and virtual learning. The 2021-22 enrollment data should be up soon but it doesn't become official until the 100th day of school. With so many schools starting in late-August that 100th day is a little later than normal.

I could be wrong but I was under the impression the KHSAA was going to include the 2022-23 data in the 2023-26 alignment, meaning the data would be available in January 2023, the alignment made in the the spring of 2023, and the schedules begin in the fall of 2023, a much tighter window than normally used.

If the KHSAA does what they have done in the past, this year's (21/22) enrollment will not used for the next realignment. The current alignment for years 2019 - 2022 used the average boy enrollment from 14/15, 15/16, 16/17 and 17/18. The enrollment for 2023 - 2026 will use the average boy enrollment from 17/18, 18/19, 19/20 and 20/21 if the KHSAA stays consistent with the past 3 realignments.  

I may have looked over it, if so, someone please let me know, but when is KHSAA suppose to do the realignment?

1 hour ago, All State Baseball said:

I may have looked over it, if so, someone please let me know, but when is KHSAA suppose to do the realignment?

For the 2023 season.

On 1/18/2022 at 8:07 AM, barrel said:

Some believe HHS will drop down to 4A where I believe they should be due to alignment. I won’t be surprised if Great Crossings moves up to 6A along with Douglas. Johnson Central would be interesting due to their enrollment. I believe they have enough to be 5A. 
 

 

HHS will stay wherever CovCath is. Regardless of size, HHS shouldn't drop down simply due to the amount of 5A versus 4A schools in their area.

9 minutes ago, KY Outsider said:

HHS will stay wherever CovCath is. Regardless of size, HHS shouldn't drop down simply due to the amount of 5A versus 4A schools in their area.

It would be interesting to see how the district would map out if HHS drops down. You'd have Scott, Holmes, HHS and likely Harrison County. Not sure if they'd keep Rowan and Boyd in that district if HHS drops. Highlands could still play whoever they want in NKY and be in an easier district with no extra travel (unless Boyd and Rowan stayed). The region would still be tough, but tell me why again HHS shouldn't drop? I don't see any downside.

27 minutes ago, KY Outsider said:

HHS will stay wherever CovCath is. Regardless of size, HHS shouldn't drop down simply due to the amount of 5A versus 4A schools in their area.

But isn't it a legitimate question of whether some of Highlands woes over the last few years have been that they are playing at too high of a class?

Could Paducah move up to 4A? So many classic playoff games vs Hoptown in the past years could be entertaining again. 

13 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

For the 2023 season.

Sorry. I meant when are they suppose to release the actual alignment for the 2023-26 cycle?

2 hours ago, tackle trap said:

Could Paducah move up to 4A? So many classic playoff games vs Hoptown in the past years could be entertaining again. 

Looking at the numbers I think they'll be close.

Can anybody guess or have some insight on Douglass, Scott Co and Great Crossing moving up to 6A or stay at 5A? Also if Lexington Catholic and/ or Boyle Co. moving down to 3A or staying at 4A? Thanks.