2 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Bracken County

There it is! I knew I was forgetting someone that would fit right in perfectly to that four team district. I think that would be great to see that having two four team districts in 1A in NKY. 

Just now, futurecoach said:

There it is! I knew I was forgetting someone that would fit right in perfectly to that four team district. I think that would be great to see that having two four team districts in 1A in NKY. 

See edit. East west factor.

6 hours ago, futurecoach said:

 

It would be fun to see basically two NKY districts in 1A. 
 

One district of:

Bellevue

Dayton

Holy Cross

Ludlow

 

The other district of:

Brossart

Newport

Newport Central Catholic 

Bracken County

 

Utilizing a 4 year average, I do not believe Holy Cross or Newport will be 1A, but I could be wrong. Holy Cross is likely closer to 1A than Newport as the HC numbers look wrong from the last alignment. Bracken County was originally 2A with the last alignment, but were able to move down when some 1A schools moved up to 2A. Only 32 teams can be 1A so Newport would need an average drop of 20 boys and Holy Cross would need to have an average drop of 5 boys, along with enrollment growth of several current 1A teams. 

23 hours ago, Builder1214 said:

Utilizing a 4 year average, I do not believe Holy Cross or Newport will be 1A, but I could be wrong. Holy Cross is likely closer to 1A than Newport as the HC numbers look wrong from the last alignment. Bracken County was originally 2A with the last alignment, but were able to move down when some 1A schools moved up to 2A. Only 32 teams can be 1A so Newport would need an average drop of 20 boys and Holy Cross would need to have an average drop of 5 boys, along with enrollment growth of several current 1A teams. 

I think Holy Cross has a good chance of moving down.  Their total enrollment as listed on the KHSAA website for this year is 337.  From what I know about the school that sounds about right if not a little high.  Half of that is 168.5.  The largest 1A was 191 boys.  As you said though it depends on what other teams do.  It would be good for Holy Cross.  They might be able to be competitive.  They have really struggled the past several years.  This year they were 4-8 but graduated 11 from their 28 man roster so will be rebuiding again. 

On 1/25/2022 at 7:03 PM, Builder1214 said:

Utilizing a 4 year average, I do not believe Holy Cross or Newport will be 1A, but I could be wrong. Holy Cross is likely closer to 1A than Newport as the HC numbers look wrong from the last alignment. Bracken County was originally 2A with the last alignment, but were able to move down when some 1A schools moved up to 2A. Only 32 teams can be 1A so Newport would need an average drop of 20 boys and Holy Cross would need to have an average drop of 5 boys, along with enrollment growth of several current 1A teams. 

 

3 hours ago, rjal said:

I think Holy Cross has a good chance of moving down.  Their total enrollment as listed on the KHSAA website for this year is 337.  From what I know about the school that sounds about right if not a little high.  Half of that is 168.5.  The largest 1A was 191 boys.  As you said though it depends on what other teams do.  It would be good for Holy Cross.  They might be able to be competitive.  They have really struggled the past several years.  This year they were 4-8 but graduated 11 from their 28 man roster so will be rebuiding again. 

From the numbers we can see now, Holy Cross is certainly going to 1A. Newport probably not but possible.

52 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

 

From the numbers we can see now, Holy Cross is certainly going to 1A. Newport probably not but possible.

If this happens, I would think the natural and easy move would be Walton-Verona moving into the district with Beechwood, Lloyd, Newport. I believe they are currently in a 6 team district.

13 hours ago, rjal said:

I think Holy Cross has a good chance of moving down.  Their total enrollment as listed on the KHSAA website for this year is 337.  From what I know about the school that sounds about right if not a little high.  Half of that is 168.5.  The largest 1A was 191 boys.  As you said though it depends on what other teams do.  It would be good for Holy Cross.  They might be able to be competitive.  They have really struggled the past several years.  This year they were 4-8 but graduated 11 from their 28 man roster so will be rebuiding again. 

Where did you find enrollments for this year on the KHSAA website? I would be interested in seeing those. The most recent enrollments I can find are the 19-20 school year.

53 minutes ago, Builder1214 said:

Where did you find enrollments for this year on the KHSAA website? I would be interested in seeing those. The most recent enrollments I can find are the 19-20 school year.

Same question. There were no attendance numbers for 2020-21 because of Covid and the 2021-22 enrollments haven't been released on the KHSAA website from what I've seen.

6 minutes ago, gchs_uk9 said:

Same question. There were no attendance numbers for 2020-21 because of Covid and the 2021-22 enrollments haven't been released on the KHSAA website from what I've seen.

Schools are still operating off their 2019-2020 enrollment numbers for ADA money because of COVID.  That is probably why the KHSAA does not have every schools current enrollment. I think we will see a lot of movement this alignment because some areas of the state are really growing and some are really shrinking. 

Douglass #s will probably keep them in 5A I would think.  They aren't as large as folks think.   The Belfry/Pikeville possibly being in same district in 2A is awesome. 

45 minutes ago, InsideTrap said:

Douglass #s will probably keep them in 5A I would think.  They aren't as large as folks think.   The Belfry/Pikeville possibly being in same district in 2A is awesome. 

What I am seeing on the school report card for Douglass they are at 796 male students with the Junior and Senior classes being the smallest and the Freshman and Sophomore classes being much bigger.  If the incoming Freshman class is as big as the current one they should pick up another 50 male students.  Now I don't know for certain how correct these numbers are since nobody knows until the KHSAA officially gets the enrollment but this would easily place them in 6A based on the last alignment numbers.  

10 hours ago, Builder1214 said:

Where did you find enrollments for this year on the KHSAA website? I would be interested in seeing those. The most recent enrollments I can find are the 19-20 school year.

I guess I made the wrong assumption that it was up to date.  Sorry.  This is what I was going by. 

Warren County….I expect South Warren will move up to 6A. The growth in the southern part of the county continues with new subdivisions planned…All of the others: Greenwood, Warren East, Warren Central and Bowling Green I assume will remain in current slots..

10 hours ago, jsr4 said:

Warren County….I expect South Warren will move up to 6A. The growth in the southern part of the county continues with new subdivisions planned…All of the others: Greenwood, Warren East, Warren Central and Bowling Green I assume will remain in current slots..

That growth would have to have been going up pretty good for the last 4 years.  Not just recently.  I think South Warren has 1200+ currently.  Greenwood is actually a few students bigger as of right now.  They might be close to 6A in this next alignment but counting numbers from 2-3 years ago they might not.  Greenwood would go before SW would. 

Bump.