Cincinnati Reds Offseason

[ChickenWyngz]

I think that only 2 of those teams, however, made it to the World Series in the current one game play in mode, correct?

 

Yes, but that has only been the format since 2012. There should be less representatives in 6 years than in the format that lasted 17 years.

 

Also, I understand your point on the change in format. It puts a wildcard team in the hole to have already used their ace going into a game against a division winner who is throwing their ace, but you can't knock a team for competing. Tanking is a lot of what's wrong with many sports. There are a lot of fans every year that would take losing in a divisional round or even the wild card game over what their teams do that season.

 

It's all about giving yourself at least that punchers chance by still playing meaningful games in August/September and having the opportunity to get hot at the right time. Baseball is the ultimate "who is hot now" streaky sport when it comes to post season success.

 

In the past 49 seasons the MLB team with the best regular season record won it all 13 times (27% of the time). In the 23 seasons since MLB started wild card play, 6 wild card teams have won it all (26% of the time). Neither number screams that this is the way it's done, but it does make me content with making the playoffs, even as a wild card, and seeing what damage can be done once there.

[AverageJoesGym]

Yes, but that has only been the format since 2012. There should be less representatives in 6 years than in the format that lasted 17 years.

 

Also, I understand your point on the change in format. It puts a wildcard team in the hole to have already used their ace going into a game against a division winner who is throwing their ace, but you can't knock a team for competing. Tanking is a lot of what's wrong with many sports. There are a lot of fans every year that would take losing in a divisional round or even the wild card game over what their teams do that season.

 

It's all about giving yourself at least that punchers chance by still playing meaningful games in August/September and having the opportunity to get hot at the right time. Baseball is the ultimate "who is hot now" streaky sport when it comes to post season success.

 

In the past 49 seasons the MLB team with the best regular season record won it all 13 times (27% of the time). In the 23 seasons since MLB started wild card play, 6 wild card teams have won it all (26% of the time). Neither number screams that this is the way it's done, but it does make me content with making the playoffs, even as a wild card, and seeing what damage can be done once there.

 

So only in only 1 season out of the 7 in the current format has produced a Wild Card team in the World Series, right? 10 of the 17 seasons under the old format had at least one World Series participant that was a Wild Card team. 14% vs 59%, that's a stark contrast.

[ChickenWyngz]

So only in only 1 season out of the 7 in the current format has produced a Wild Card team in the World Series, right? 10 of the 17 seasons under the old format had at least one World Series participant that was a Wild Card team. 14% vs 59%, that's a stark contrast.

 

I guess if teams aren't guranteed the division crown, or even more so, a World Series appearance they should strive for 0-162 and never get better.

[UKMustangFan]

I'm not sure what the point of bringing up the WS is. Of course the Reds aren't WS contenders. No one thinks they are, or expects them to be. However, when you're in the middle of a rebuild, the first step/goal is to be a playoff contender, whether that's WC or division winner.

[ChickenWyngz]

Looks like the Reds are out on the Realmuto deal. Was exciting to listen to and think about, but not the worst thing in the world to lose out to the Phillies on that. Barnhart is more than capable and you keep your prospects.

[The Double Deuce]

Looks like the Reds are out on the Realmuto deal. Was exciting to listen to and think about, but not the worst thing in the world to lose out to the Phillies on that. Barnhart is more than capable and you keep your prospects.

 

Sounds like the Phillies gave up their top prospect, another top 10 prospect, and an additional Top 20 prospect....ludicrous haul.

[jpa2825]

Looks like the Reds are out on the Realmuto deal. Was exciting to listen to and think about, but not the worst thing in the world to lose out to the Phillies on that. Barnhart is more than capable and you keep your prospects.

 

After asking the question above, I looked at the stats. While Realmuto appears to be a consensus choice over Tucker, I'm not sure once you throw the contract status into the analysis, particularly for a team like the Reds, that Tucker isn't a better choice right now.

[AverageJoesGym]

After asking the question above, I looked at the stats. While Realmuto appears to be a consensus choice over Tucker, I'm not sure once you throw the contract status into the analysis, particularly for a team like the Reds, that Tucker isn't a better choice right now.

 

A 4.3 WAR player vs a 0.9 WAR player is a pretty significant difference in a division as competitive as the NL Central.

[CincySportsFan]

A 4.3 WAR player vs a 0.9 WAR player is a pretty significant difference in a division as competitive as the NL Central.

 

If you were only looking at the WAR, then yes there's the difference. But as jpa said, the money is way in favor of Tucker...which means they'll have more to spend elsewhere the next few years.

[UKMustangFan]

After asking the question above, I looked at the stats. While Realmuto appears to be a consensus choice over Tucker, I'm not sure once you throw the contract status into the analysis, particularly for a team like the Reds, that Tucker isn't a better choice right now.

 

Realmuto is WAY WAY better than Barnhart, regardless of how you want to slice it. He's literally better in every aspect of the game.

[ChickenWyngz]

Zach Duke added. Not a splash signing, but not my least favorite thing to ever happen.

[jpa2825]

Realmuto is WAY WAY better than Barnhart, regardless of how you want to slice it. He's literally better in every aspect of the game.

 

Challenge accepted. Both are 27 yrs old and have similar service time. There are plenty of ways to slice it to show they are either even or advantage to Tucker. He's NOT literally better in every aspect of the game.

 

 

SALARY - advantage TB

JT - $5.9M in 2019, ARB3 in 2020, FA in 2021 (he's gonna be expensive)

TB - $2.5M in 2019, $3.5M in 2020, $3.75M in 2021, $7.5M in 2022 (club option; pays $500k if not exercised) (he's affordable and a known quantity)

 

DEFENSE - advantage TB (no worse than a tie)

MLB career Fielding % - JT .993 v. TB .997 - tie

MLB career CS% - JT 33% v. TB 34% - tie

MLB career Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Avg - JT 8 v. TB 22 - advantage TB

 

 

OFFENSE - advantage JT

MLB career batting avg. - JT .279 v. TB .254 - advantage JT

MLB career OBP - JT .327 v. TB .328 - tie

MLB careeer slugging - JT .442 v. TB .369 - advantage JT

Awards - JT All-Star & Silver Slugger (2018) v. TB Gold Glove (2017) - tie

Best WAR Year - JT 4.3 (2018) v. TB 3.4 (2017) - advantage JT

Edited February 13, 2019 by theguru
Rule 2

[ChickenWyngz]

It's so nice to have a completely different feel around the Reds at this point in the year. There is definitely an excitement.

 

To see quotes like Lorenzen's about the thought process being a lot more about the team than it was before, and then to see Kemp talk about how good this lineup can be is a lot more fun than the past couple years.

[bulldog77]

Realmuto is WAY WAY better than Barnhart, regardless of how you want to slice it. He's literally better in every aspect of the game.

 

What unit of measure is "WAY WAY?" Asking for a friend. :lol2:

[UKMustangFan]

What unit of measure is "WAY WAY?" Asking for a friend. :lol2:

 

Realmuto is the best catcher in the game. Tucker is probably 15-16th best. So an incredibly large gap.