Dunn's Contract Situation

[Latch]

Very interesting topic and question. They have put themselves in a position where he is the centerpiece of the offense and it would be very hard to replace his and Griffey's production. I am in the camp to wait and see what happens b/c his numbers have declined every year. If he can develop into the every day #3 hitter that drives in more runs I'm all for a 5-7 year deal between $13-15M a year. But can a small market team afford to pay that to a number two hitter that doesn't run the bases all that well? If his numbers continue to drop it's a no brainer not to give him $13M a year. Another interseting question. He has either 1 or 2 years until he gets his mega deal. Does he work extremely hard for 18 months and then quit working as hard after he secures a huge contract?

[h.s.sportsrbest]

Very interesting topic and question. They have put themselves in a position where he is the centerpiece of the offense and it would be very hard to replace his and Griffey's production. I am in the camp to wait and see what happens b/c his numbers have declined every year. If he can develop into the every day #3 hitter that drives in more runs I'm all for a 5-7 year deal between $13-15M a year. But can a small market team afford to pay that to a number two hitter that doesn't run the bases all that well? If his numbers continue to drop it's a no brainer not to give him $13M a year. Another interseting question. He has either 1 or 2 years until he gets his mega deal. Does he work extremely hard for 18 months and then quit working as hard after he secures a huge contract?

Essentially, it really comes down to only 3 options:

 

* Play out this year, pick up the option ($13 million) and play it by ear next year.

 

* Play out this year, if he hits .225 with 90 ribbies, 40 homers, 95 runs and 102 walks make a decision. It is another decline, but can you live with it? If not, give him $500,000 and send him walking.

 

* Gamble (not in my mind, but in the minds of many) and re-up. Admittedly, risky for a team in this market, but less so given that $20 million is freed up over the next two years (Milton this year and Griffey next).

 

Admittedly biased, but I don't think there is any reason to believe that he'll go Beltre / Sexson on you and stop hitting after the big deal. I could be wrong, but I think you get what you see with him. His deal two years ago didn't mark a (significant) drop-off. However, his average has dropped since then (while most other numbers have been consistent).

 

I don't know how the Reds let him walk -- I really don't. It will be interesting to see how this transpires.

[nees1212]

I think the Reds will look to shop him. It may be this year, or it may be next after they pick up his option for the year. With the big deals Harang and Arroyo just signed, I don't see them shelling out a large amount of money on one player. I think they like their options in Bruce and Hamilton for the future, along with a couple guys in Louisville.

[spindoc]

I think the Reds will look to shop him. It may be this year, or it may be next after they pick up his option for the year. With the big deals Harang and Arroyo just signed, I don't see them shelling out a large amount of money on one player. I think they like their options in Bruce and Hamilton for the future, along with a couple guys in Louisville.

I hope you're wrong.

[ladiesbballcoach]

One question to ponder in this discussion.

 

How many Reds have produced the stats Dunn has in the past 3-4 years in a 3-4 year stretch over the last 20 years?

 

I would guess that the number is really small.

 

While he may not be the perfect hitter, I don't think the Reds have had too many players produce like Dunn does in the past 20 years.

 

Serious thought, would you not have to go back to the 70's to find a player that has produced as many Runs, RBI's and HR's in the past 3-4 years?

[spindoc]

One question to ponder in this discussion.

 

How many Reds have produced the stats Dunn has in the past 3-4 years in a 3-4 year stretch over the last 20 years?

 

I would guess that the number is really small.

 

While he may not be the perfect hitter, I don't think the Reds have had too many players produce like Dunn does in the past 20 years.

 

Serious thought, would you not have to go back to the 70's to find a player that has produced as many Runs, RBI's and HR's in the past 3-4 years?

Without too much searching online, I'd guess Eric Davis is comparable.

[ladiesbballcoach]

Without too much searching online, I'd guess Eric Davis is comparable.

And that would be getting to my point, these type of players that have produced the numbers he has do not come through the Reds system to often.

 

Hssb can tell you I have been as big of a critic of Dunn's as anyone.

[98NCCalum]

Eric Davis' best 3 year run

 

87-89

Totals:

Hits - 398

HR's - 97

RBI - 294

AVG - .282

 

Dunn's last three years, which may not be his best three years as a Red, ED's numbers are.

 

Totals:

Hits - 416

HR's - 126

RBI - 295

AVG - .249

 

Average is obviously lower and Dunn doesn't steal bases like ED did, but the numbers are not that far off, Dunn is WAY ahead in HR's, tiny bit a head in RBI and Dunn is ahead by about 20 hits.

 

Eric Davis is an icon around here, why? If he is why is Dunn not?

 

I never understood the hate for Dunn that some have. He is what he is, I hate that saying but it's true in this instance.

 

Dunn will not keep getting worse, I believe he will get better, I see incredible potential there.

 

I do not see how you get rid of him. We have a good young nucleus now. Do what you have to do to keep it intact.

[stickymitts]

Sign him or your morons...

[nees1212]

Eric Davis' best 3 year run

 

87-89

Totals:

Hits - 398

HR's - 97

RBI - 294

AVG - .282

 

Dunn's last three years, which may not be his best three years as a Red, ED's numbers are.

 

Totals:

Hits - 416

HR's - 126

RBI - 295

AVG - .249

 

Average is obviously lower and Dunn doesn't steal bases like ED did, but the numbers are not that far off, Dunn is WAY ahead in HR's, tiny bit a head in RBI and Dunn is ahead by about 20 hits.

 

Eric Davis is an icon around here, why? If he is why is Dunn not?

 

I never understood the hate for Dunn that some have. He is what he is, I hate that saying but it's true in this instance.

 

Dunn will not keep getting worse, I believe he will get better, I see incredible potential there.

 

I do not see how you get rid of him. We have a good young nucleus now. Do what you have to do to keep it intact.

 

ED was, and probably still is, much better defensively than Dunn. Plus he hustled much more than Dunn does. Also, add to the fact Dunn has already made some comments that have rubbed people the wrong way.

[SirMixAlot]

We need Dunn in this lineup, right now, other than Dunn, who really scares pitchers in the reds lineup.

[AverageJoesGym]

I think the best move would be to pick up the option for next season at $13 million. They're probably not going to get a discount from him if they sign him to a long term deal right now. By picking up the option that gives them the rest of this year and next to see whether he becomes a more complete player or if he remains a one trick pony. I think it is dangerous to offer him a long term contract at this point. He is indeed entering what may be the prime years of his career however, a lot of players of his size tend to break down quickly as they near their 30's. I think paying him $13 million next season wouldn't upset him as it seems to be fair market value and it gives them another 300 games to determine what he's worth to them.

[goherd96]

One phrase to sum it all up...pitching and defense wins championships...Dunn doesn't pitch and his defense is marginal...

[goherd96]

ED was, and probably still is, much better defensively than Dunn. Plus he hustled much more than Dunn does. Also, add to the fact Dunn has already made some comments that have rubbed people the wrong way.

 

Much better defensively, better at producing runs by stolen bases and actually driving in runs by ways other than just the long ball...plus, ED didn't hit in Great American Small Park...imagine how many more homers he could have had there...

[98NCCalum]

One phrase to sum it all up...pitching and defense wins championships...Dunn doesn't pitch and his defense is marginal...

But we can't afford a staff that will us games 2-1 consistently. We need some runs on the board. ESPECIALLY at GABP.