April 10, 200719 yr Essentially, it really comes down to only 3 options: * Play out this year, pick up the option ($13 million) and play it by ear next year. * Play out this year, if he hits .225 with 90 ribbies, 40 homers, 95 runs and 102 walks make a decision. It is another decline, but can you live with it? If not, give him $500,000 and send him walking. * Gamble (not in my mind, but in the minds of many) and re-up. Admittedly, risky for a team in this market, but less so given that $20 million is freed up over the next two years (Milton this year and Griffey next). Admittedly biased, but I don't think there is any reason to believe that he'll go Beltre / Sexson on you and stop hitting after the big deal. I could be wrong, but I think you get what you see with him. His deal two years ago didn't mark a (significant) drop-off. However, his average has dropped since then (while most other numbers have been consistent). I don't know how the Reds let him walk -- I really don't. It will be interesting to see how this transpires. I'm in camp 1, but it might be more of a risk than camp 3. I think he could easily work harder than he ever has for the next 18 months, get the mega deal, continue to work but nearly as hard. I'm not putting him in the Beltre/Sexon category b/c I firmly believe they were enhanced by something other than just hard work. I know the Reds probably can't replace his production w/ one player. But I'm not sure I want the number 2 hitter for the Reds to be getting $15M per year.
April 10, 200719 yr Author ED was, and probably still is, much better defensively than Dunn. Plus he hustled much more than Dunn does. Also, add to the fact Dunn has already made some comments that have rubbed people the wrong way. A. Obviously. B. Hogwash. He was faster, sure, but Dunn's size makes him look like he isn't hustling. Not buying it. C. What are they? ------------------------------ Add in the fact that Davis couldn't stay healthy and the scales, as 98 pointed out, are freakishly level. When Dunn is done here, there will be NO argument who the best #44 was to wear a Reds' uniform...and he wasn't trying to catch Mallory's first pitch this year.
April 10, 200719 yr Author I'm not sure I want the number 2 hitter for the Reds to be getting $15M per year. Fair, however, will he be hitting 2nd when Griffey is somewhere else? I don't think so. He'll be hitting 3rd / 4th. Forget assigning a dollar value, the numbers are so perverse it makes it impossible. However, compare the back of the baseball cards for Soriano, Carlos Lee, and Dunn and see what you get. Then look at their new contracts.....he's going to get paid near that level by someone. Is he "worth" $15 million? Is anyone, really?
April 10, 200719 yr Add in the fact that Davis couldn't stay healthy and the scales, as 98 pointed out, are freakishly level. When Dunn is done here, there will be NO argument who the best #44 was to wear a Reds' uniform...and he wasn't trying to catch Mallory's first pitch this year. :thumb:
April 10, 200719 yr Author First 6 years with the Reds... Name/Runs/Hits/2b/3b/HR/RBI/TB/BB/SO/SB/On-base/Slug/Avg Dunn/519/695/151/6/198/466/1452/574/927/48/.380/.515/.246 Davis/431/582/83/16/142/413/1123/316/561/212/.372/.526/.276
April 10, 200719 yr Author Therefore, when you calculate the "runs produced" stat (runs + rbi - HR) you get this after their first 6 years: Dunn "produced" 787 runs. Davis "produced" 702 runs.
April 10, 200719 yr Therefore, when you calculate the "runs produced" stat (runs + rbi - HR) you get this after their first 6 years: Dunn "produced" 787 runs. Davis "produced" 702 runs. But there are those the say but, but but he strikes out alot. Okay. I'd rather him strike out with runners on than make contact on a bad pitch and GIDP. The runs produced stat says it all to me.
April 10, 200719 yr Author By the way, Davis' 7th year with the Reds looked like this: .260 / .347 on-base / 84 Runs / 86 rbi / 24 HR's / 60 walks / 100 k's / 21 steals Want to bet that Dunn's numbers are better than these this year?
April 10, 200719 yr Author But there are those the say but, but but he strikes out alot. Okay. Eric Davis struck out 1.89 times per base on balls. Dunn has struck out 1.60 times per base on balls. Eric Davis, for his career, struck out 23% of his plate appearances. Adam Dunn, for his career, has struck out 27% of his plate appearances. Over a full season (600 PA's), that is only 24 strikeouts.
April 10, 200719 yr HSSB just confirmed what I said, he's just a little longer winded than me.(And that's the only thing ) Sign him, or you're a moron...
April 10, 200719 yr Eric Davis struck out 1.89 times per base on balls. Dunn has struck out 1.60 times per base on balls. Eric Davis, for his career, struck out 23% of his plate appearances. Adam Dunn, for his career, has struck out 27% of his plate appearances. Over a full season (600 PA's), that is only 24 strikeouts. Sounds like we're trying to convince ourselves, even though it's not necessary, :lol:
April 10, 200719 yr And I will punctuate the point in saying no one has produced another name that is around Dunn's stats except for a player that played close to 20 years ago. Since the late 70's, very early 80's, the Reds have had TWO PLAYERS that have produced like Dunn is producing now. Obviously for the Reds, players like Dunn do not come around too often. You sign him. And that comes from a person who HSSB said he thought we were going to get in a fight over Dunn at one point. I am not his greatest fan but I can respect what he brings, what he is and what he means for this team.
April 10, 200719 yr A. Obviously. B. Hogwash. He was faster, sure, but Dunn's size makes him look like he isn't hustling. Not buying it. C. What are they? ------------------------------ Add in the fact that Davis couldn't stay healthy and the scales, as 98 pointed out, are freakishly level. When Dunn is done here, there will be NO argument who the best #44 was to wear a Reds' uniform...and he wasn't trying to catch Mallory's first pitch this year. B. Dunn loafs a lot on the base path and in the field. IMO, it's easy to tell when he's going full speed and when he's loafing. He can move pretty fast once he gets that big body going. C. When asked last year if he's been working on taking the ball to the opposite field to deter the shift, he said he was, but decided it's better to try to hit through it. To me, and quite a few other people out there, that's a sign of laziness and not wanting to get better.
April 10, 200719 yr B. Dunn loafs a lot on the base path and in the field. IMO, it's easy to tell when he's going full speed and when he's loafing. He can move pretty fast once he gets that big body going. C. When asked last year if he's been working on taking the ball to the opposite field to deter the shift, he said he was, but decided it's better to try to hit through it. To me, and quite a few other people out there, that's a sign of laziness and not wanting to get better. You can add Griffey, Bonds, Sheffield, McGwire...etc, etc...to that list.
April 10, 200719 yr Also, I don't think anyone here is arguing that Eric Davis was better than Dunn. All that was asked was who was comparable to Dunn over the last 20 years, and Davis was the only name that came up. It was also asked why Davis was more liked then Dunn.
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