War in Ukraine

[TheDeuce]

On 10/3/2022 at 8:15 PM, theguru said:

This.

The bottom line is Russia has more nukes than anyone and they can destroy all of America at anytime and there isn't anything we can do about it.

I don’t believe this to be true.

[theguru]

13 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

I don’t believe this to be true.

I hope you are right Deuce. 

[nkypete]

Nuclear Deterrence theory holds that nuclear weapons are intended to deter other states from attacking with their nuclear weapons, through the promise of retaliation and possibly mutually assured destruction.  Personally, the only place that I like to bluff is in card games.  This theory has always been me nervous growing up.

[sportsfan41]

2 hours ago, nkypete said:

Nuclear Deterrence theory holds that nuclear weapons are intended to deter other states from attacking with their nuclear weapons, through the promise of retaliation and possibly mutually assured destruction.  Personally, the only place that I like to bluff is in card games.  This theory has always been me nervous growing up.

While I do agree that the thought of it leaves us uneasy and rightfully so.  It just seems like this whole fiasco with the Ukraine has really brought us to question the military might of Russia.  

[nkypete]

Isn't the nuclear arsenal leftovers from the USSR period?  It doesn't take much to have two people turn a key at the same time.

[Voice of Reason]

My biggest concern about possible use of nuclear weapons is the low load tactical nuclear weapons they have now. They can be used to target a smaller specific area of about a 5 mile blast zone. I have a much higher level of concern of the Russians using that weapon than what most people are saying.

[sportsfan41]

1 hour ago, nkypete said:

Isn't the nuclear arsenal leftovers from the USSR period?  It doesn't take much to have two people turn a key at the same time.

Much of the military strength that the world perceived Russia to have, was from the USSR period.  That's kind of my point, it didn't live up to the hype.

[Jumper_Dad]

https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2022/05/ncos-america-has-them-china-wants-them-russia-struggling-without-them/366586/

The Russian military is considered rigid at the tactical level and flexible only at the strategic operational level, Kofman said, leaving ownership and independent thinking to the officers. At these higher officer levels, he said, “That’s where you see the Russian military really sort of affected structurally as a force in terms of its culture and how it operates.”

Russia’s version of NCOs are mostly contracted troops who do not have a leadership role or manage discipline like their counterparts in the U.S. or British militaries, Kofman said.

“They are not in charge of, you know, adapting the unit. They're not in charge of tactics and things like that…The person in charge of everything is the officer. That's why the Russian military is officer top-heavy. The officer corps handles all those issues that NCOs might,” he said.

While the article specifically says the lack of NCOs isn't why Russia is losing in Ukraine, it's pretty clear that there lack of flexibility hasn't done them any favors. This article does a good job of contrasting the way Russia and the US go about their business on the battlefield. 

[Jumper_Dad]

An explosion on Kerch bridge took place at around 6 a.m. on Saturday while a train was crossing it, causing it to collapse. This is the ONLY connection directly from Russia to Crimea and has been a key supply line for the Russian military in South Ukraine being supplied from Crimea. 

For some reason Ukraine had said in the past that they wouldn't hit this bridge, but are hinting that they are behind the sabotaged fuel tank that blew up destroying the bridge and train. This was not only a rail bridge but a road bridge as well. A key and very strategic target.

[theguru]

1 minute ago, Jumper_Dad said:

An explosion on Kerch bridge took place at around 6 a.m. on Saturday while a train was crossing it, causing it to collapse. This is the ONLY connection directly from Russia to Crimea and has been a key supply line for the Russian military in South Ukraine being supplied from Crimea. 

For some reason Ukraine had said in the past that they wouldn't hit this bridge, but are hinting that they are behind the sabotaged fuel tank that blew up destroying the bridge and train. This was not only a rail bridge but a road bridge as well. A key and very strategic target.

So pipelines and now a bridge, hmm.

[Jumper_Dad]

Russia retaliated for the bridge by firing rockets/missiles into population centers including the center of Kyiv. Orders for these attacks came from the highest levels in Moscow along with a warning that more would follow if Ukraine struck other Russian targets.

[Jumper_Dad]

Some of the heaviest bombardment from Russia since the early days of the war. Striking population centers it seems, over military targets. Germany is immediately sending more air defense systems to Ukraine and the US has pledged more advanced anti-air systems as a response to these attacks.

I'm not sure how long Russia can maintain this volume of attacks as their weapons reserves have dwindled mightily in the last 6 months.

[Jumper_Dad]

Russia is warning that Ukraine will set off a dirty bomb in a false flag operation to frame Russia for setting off a Nuke. In hopes of drawing more support from the West. 

Ukraine says Russia is expected to set off a dirty bomb and blame it on Ukraine. Giving Russia an excuse to escalate the war even more.

I think the chances of a "Dirty Bomb" being set off by one side or the other has grown substantially over the past few weeks.

I'm not sure what the West response should be or would be.

[sportsfan41]

11 hours ago, Jumper_Dad said:

Russia is warning that Ukraine will set off a dirty bomb in a false flag operation to frame Russia for setting off a Nuke. In hopes of drawing more support from the West. 

Ukraine says Russia is expected to set off a dirty bomb and blame it on Ukraine. Giving Russia an excuse to escalate the war even more.

I think the chances of a "Dirty Bomb" being set off by one side or the other has grown substantially over the past few weeks.

I'm not sure what the West response should be or would be.

Sounds like a mess.  Whatever happened to Ukraines emergency application?  Never really heard anything else about it. 

[ChickenWyngz]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan41 said:

Sounds like a mess.  Whatever happened to Ukraines emergency application?  Never really heard anything else about it. 

Which probably explains exactly what happened to it, imo.