War in Ukraine

[Jumper_Dad]

3 hours ago, sportsfan41 said:

Sounds like a mess.  Whatever happened to Ukraines emergency application?  Never really heard anything else about it. 

I'll be surprised if it ever goes through. The US and NATO both agreed to not take in countries from former USSR when the USSR collapsed. That was a concession to Russia for allowing those countries out of the USSR.

Russia has said repeatedly that allowing Ukraine into NATO would be seen as a provocative escalation by NATO.

[Jumper_Dad]

A couple of developments in the last 24-48 hours.

1. Russia has said that any Western Commercial Satellites that are aiding the Ukrainian war effort, were basically fair game to be destroyed. I'm guessing that's everything from Starlink, to communications to privately owned Satellites will real-time camera and video capabilities. I don't know, but I assume Russia has the capabilities to damage other satellites with their own. Shooting them down from ground or airborne launched missiles is another option that Russia could choose.

2. Russia said today that using Nuclear weapons in Ukraine WAS NOT on the table and is not being considered. On the face of it that sounds great. But the reality is that is exactly what Russia would say preceeding a false flag operation involving a dirty bomb. So that that statement from Russia with a grain of salt. 

3. Russians installed leadership in a few cities have retreated behind Russian lines as Ukraine continues to push to reclaim those areas.

These next couple of weeks will be very precarious, hopefully there is no escalation involving other countries. 

[Jumper_Dad]

Russian missile crosses into NATO member Poland killing two citizens!!!

This might turn all of this into something completely different. 

[Jumper_Dad]

Pentagon spokesman said they are aware of the reports and are taking them seriously but haven't confirmed them yet. 

He also said, "We've been crystal clear that we will defend every inch of NATO territory," in reference to Article Five. 

[Jumper_Dad]

Sounds like the missile was an Ukrainian air defense missile that was fired at incoming Russian missiles, that struck Poland. 

Poland has absolved Ukraine of guilt saying that they were only defending themselves. 

[theguru]

3 hours ago, Jumper_Dad said:

Sounds like the missile was an Ukrainian air defense missile that was fired at incoming Russian missiles, that struck Poland. 

Poland has absolved Ukraine of guilt saying that they were only defending themselves. 

That is a relief.  I think we all could tell from the reporting yesterday it was something like this and not an attack on Poland by Russia.  

[ChickenWyngz]

3 hours ago, Jumper_Dad said:

Sounds like the missile was an Ukrainian air defense missile that was fired at incoming Russian missiles, that struck Poland. 

Poland has absolved Ukraine of guilt saying that they were only defending themselves. 

 

37 minutes ago, theguru said:

That is a relief.  I think we all could tell from the reporting yesterday it was something like this and not an attack on Poland by Russia.  

I hate our media/social media. This was reported all over the place after work yesterday and since I've seen one tiny report letting people know it was a missile shot by Poland and not Russia starting WW3. I don't condone a single act Russia is doing, but let's at least report accurately and fairly rather than just reporting for the fear factor. 

[theguru]

4 minutes ago, ChickenWyngz said:

 

I hate our media/social media. This was reported all over the place after work yesterday and since I've seen one tiny report letting people know it was a missile shot by Poland and not Russia starting WW3. I don't condone a single act Russia is doing, but let's at least report accurately and fairly rather than just reporting for the fear factor. 

I watched several reports on it yesterday and they were pretty consistent that we don't know, hold on, let's not get ahead of ourselves, etc.

Hopefully this is a wake up call to the world to "force" a resolution and peace deal soon.

[Jumper_Dad]

Latest stuff...

It's been covered that Russia had to strip Nukes out of missiles and launch the empty missiles, just loaded with ballast, at Ukraine due to running out of conventional munitions. 

Russian soldiers have "pulled back to regroup" in several areas all along the front.

A good pair of pants were ruined in Moscow. 

Now news is that Moscow is shifting its focus back to its original goals of the "demilitarization and denazification" of Ukraine, and would look to claim no more territory in Ukraine. 

This is a minor but potentially major development as I feel Russia is actually looking for a soft landing and a way out that saves face.

 

[Jumper_Dad]

The US (31 Abrams) and Germany (17 Leopard) have agreed to send 48 front-line main battle tanks to Ukraine. Make no mistake these are offensive weapons and the goal will be to use them to reclaim land taken by Russia. 

Russia's best defense will be using artillery and drones against them.

Russia's newest tanks (T-14) reportedly have twice the firing range of an Abrams, but Russia has only used them sparingly due to early losses of them.

Russia has threatened Germany and Poland to not give Ukraine Leopards, so we'll see what comes of those warnings.

[sportsfan41]

4 hours ago, Jumper_Dad said:

The US (31 Abrams) and Germany (17 Leopard) have agreed to send 48 front-line main battle tanks to Ukraine. Make no mistake these are offensive weapons and the goal will be to use them to reclaim land taken by Russia. 

Russia's best defense will be using artillery and drones against them.

Russia's newest tanks (T-14) reportedly have twice the firing range of an Abrams, but Russia has only used them sparingly due to early losses of them.

Russia has threatened Germany and Poland to not give Ukraine Leopards, so we'll see what comes of those warnings.

It's strange that so much has been made of this.  With that said, it does have a strange feeling about it all.  Not sure what to expect next.  

[theguru]

Mission creep for sure.  So now Ukraine (along with NATO and America) want to take back Crimea too.  

In the past I have personally ruled out threats of nukes being used as just bravado but I am more concerned than ever.  

I think "we" are going down a very dangerous path.

[Jumper_Dad]

Ukraine has a reported 50,000 soldiers in the US training now. They are all expected to return by May, and it is thought, these troops trained on US weapon systems could start to turn the war.

I've heard one report that Ukraine is sending English speaking pilots to the US to be trained in F16s. Presumably two squadrons of F16s will be deployed after they are trained. This training is expected to take 6 months.

[theguru]

1 minute ago, Jumper_Dad said:

Ukraine has a reported 50,000 soldiers in the US training now. They are all expected to return by May, and it is thought, these troops trained on US weapon systems could start to turn the war.

I've heard one report that Ukraine is sending English speaking pilots to the US to be trained in F16s. Presumably two squadrons of F16s will be deployed after they are trained. This training is expected to take 6 months.

Right.  Some of the news reports I listened to speculated that the tanks we and others are sending are just the beginning of more and more tanks and then fighter jets are next.

[Jumper_Dad]

Where ever you listen to podcast, give this one a listen. This guy gives some strong takes on what is going on in Russia.