Coronavirus

[mcpapa]

High irony. People use the numbers from the shutdown to justify why there should not be a shutdown.

I wish I could like a post more than once.

[theguru]

I see the New York Police Department may now start arresting people for gathering in large groups.

 

Marshall Law!

 

Chicago just joined New York saying in part that they will arrest you and will take you to jail for violating stay-at-home orders in Chicago.

 

Sad days in America for sure...

[theguru]

During the “Virtual School Disaster”, my son’s chemistry class has switched gears to learn more about practical chem applications. Theme to one assignment was about the spread of Covid-19. The message was, “Act like you have it.” Then, “If you have it, you can spread it.” Finally, “Think of others and not the inconvenience on you, that is why you social distance and wear masks/gloves.”

 

That sounds more like a sociology class project than a chemistry project.

 

I would rather see them study something more technical and useful like the effectiveness of filtration techniques against pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2. According to a Google search most viruses, including CoVs, range from 0.004 to 1.0 μm. Furthermore, the COVID-19 virus is approximately 0.125 Micron or 125 nanometers in diameter. (Source: National Library of Medicine)

 

Also from Google/the Net the idea behind an N95 mask is it has a filtering ability down to, and actually below, the size of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. So the coronavirus is about 0.12 microns in diameter and N95 (masks) protect down to 0.1 microns, with 95% efficiency, which is where it gets its name.

 

I need someone smarter than me to sort out the microns, nanometers, and μm as it relates to how effective, if at all, materials used as mask would be at protecting someone from COVID-19.

 

Spit balling here, it appears that a "perfect" N95 mask utilization should protect you with at least 95% effectiveness against the Rona but any step down from a N95 mask is probably nothing more than a false sense of security.

 

Anyone?

[Hangman]

To keep it consistent, 2020.

 

Honestly we are never going to know because we have already "cooked the books."

 

Also, think about Tennessee as an anecdote, we are running about the same pace as them per capita and they went with a little more of a herd immunity strategy than Kentucky.

 

We hit the revised over today, a little over two weeks since we had this discussion. I feel like you’re significantly discounting how high the number goes using only a herd strategy.

[theguru]

We hit the revised over today, a little over two weeks since we had this discussion. I feel like you’re significantly discounting how high the number goes using only a herd strategy.

 

Didn't the CDC revise their accounting of deaths too? There is so much "change" with the numbers I don't know anyone will ever know what to believe.

 

As to herd immunity, it is what we are doing like it or not. Also, I would look at some states where the "lock-downs" were the least restrictive and maybe Sweden to get some idea how most of America will likely play out with deaths.

 

But to your point, it is going to be a big number but we will never know an accurate number. Never ever...

[hoops5]

That sounds more like a sociology class project than a chemistry project.

This was just one portion of the unit. There was technical content, chemical reactions, and collection of data involved.

[theguru]

This was just one portion of the unit. There was technical content, chemical reactions, and collection of data involved.

 

I am sure hoops5, it sounds like your school is ahead of the curve.

 

But I would still like to see projects free from any presuppositions if it is going to be a science project.

[Hangman]

Didn't the CDC revise their accounting of deaths too? There is so much "change" with the numbers I don't know anyone will ever know what to believe.

 

As to herd immunity, it is what we are doing like it or not. Also, I would look at some states where the "lock-downs" were the least restrictive and maybe Sweden to get some idea how most of America will likely play out with deaths.

 

But to your point, it is going to be a big number but we will never know an accurate number. Never ever...

 

My only point was it’s been an extremely low over/under benchmark tossed out both times. And we still are pretty far from herd immunity being our only strategy, best I can tell.

 

Our number of cases per million is significantly higher than Sweden’s so nothing I can infer from that. Using their number of deaths per million as a baseline, we’d be closing in on 90,000 at this point.

[theguru]

My only point was it’s been an extremely low over/under benchmark tossed out both times. And we still are pretty far from herd immunity being our only strategy, best I can tell.

 

Our number of cases per million is significantly higher than Sweden’s so nothing I can infer from that. Using their number of deaths per million as a baseline, we’d be closing in on 90,000 at this point.

 

I am not a gambler but I do know this, almost immediately after setting the line I would have pulled it off the books because again the books have been cooked, roasted, microwaved, grilled, and picked over.

 

I will start a new thread just for you that should be an easier way for us all to look at this.

[Hangman]

I am not a gambler but I do know this, almost immediately after setting the line I would have pulled it off the books because again the books have been cooked, roasted, microwaved, grilled, and picked over.

 

I will start a new thread just for you that should be an easier way for us all to look at this.

 

:lol2: I don’t need a special thread, thanks though.

[theguru]

:lol2: I don’t need a special thread, thanks though.

 

I have been kicking it around anyway. Please be sure to give us your opinion in that new "Hangman" thread. :thumb:

[theguru]

Here is a statistical analysis from linkedin that was updated today:

 

Our base-case estimate is for 15 million unemployed by the end of 2020, assuming a phased-in recovery starting mid-May. Given the expected recovery, we now estimate 33,743 drug overdoses and 7,324 suicides, which sum to 41,067 layoff-related deaths. While not as grim, it increases the base-case estimate covid-19 deaths by 68%.

 

The article also states:

 

Although statistics for alcohol layoff-related deaths are not as strong, there is a robust correlation.

 

We are piling up dead bodies right and left.

[Voice of Reason]

Didn't the CDC revise their accounting of deaths too? There is so much "change" with the numbers I don't know anyone will ever know what to believe.

 

As to herd immunity, it is what we are doing like it or not. Also, I would look at some states where the "lock-downs" were the least restrictive and maybe Sweden to get some idea how most of America will likely play out with deaths.

 

But to your point, it is going to be a big number but we will never know an accurate number. Never ever...

 

I read today that to reach herd immunity we need 70% infected. We are a very long way from that.

 

Also, nearly 50% of those treated in ICU are under the age of 64. 12% of ICU patients are between 20-44.

[theguru]

I read today that to reach herd immunity we need 70% infected. We are a very long way from that.

 

Also, nearly 50% of those treated in ICU are under the age of 64. 12% of ICU patients are between 20-44.

 

We have a long, hard road ahead.

[Voice of Reason]

It is a battle between selfishness and selflessness.