Track The NL Central Champion Reds (Week 13)

[AverageJoesGym]

The linked article said he had a 3.2 WAR in 196 innings. I'd bet anything they don't get that out of a pitcher they draft that late in their first 196 major league innings especially if they start. Sure they could, but it's still very hit and miss. Also I don't know if you've noticed or not, but the Wilpon's are dead broke. They're not looking to pay guy that fall in the draft a bunch when they can pay guys like Wood the league minimum.

 

You're placing a lot of value on Wood's first year, he's been much less effective his second time through the league. His ERA stood at 2.51 after his first 7 starts last season. Since then it has been an even 5.00. Also, he had a 1.2 WAR last season and only a 0.2 WAR this season. I see no way that a package, with Wood as the centerpiece, would be enough to net Reyes.

[HammerTime]

In similar terms to inning pitched Cliff Lee had ERA over 5.00 at this point in his career. Pitchers take the longest to develop. His war in his first 3 years was. 0.5, 0.4, 0.5.

[SSC]

You're placing a lot of value on Wood's first year, he's been much less effective his second time through the league. His ERA stood at 2.51 after his first 7 starts last season. Since then it has been an even 5.00. Also, he had a 1.2 WAR last season and only a 0.2 WAR this season. I see no way that a package, with Wood as the centerpiece, would be enough to net Reyes.

 

That's what I don't get about this argument. Who is going to give up a ton for Reyes with him saying he won't negotiate a new deal until the winter? Why give up more than a few prospects? The Mets would do it for two or three because they're broke and they can get known prospects rather than two picks in the 31-45 range. Wood is a better prospect by a million over anyone that goes 31st in next years draft. How many teams that are in contention need a SS as desperately as the Reds and have quite a few prospects?

[AverageJoesGym]

In similar terms to inning pitched Cliff Lee had ERA over 5.00 at this point in his career. Pitchers take the longest to develop. His war in his first 3 years was. 0.5, 0.4, 0.5.

 

Wood does NOT have Cliff Lee's stuff. Also, you're counting his first season's total when he threw 10 innings? If you take his first 3 seasons then his WAR goes 0.4, 0.5 and 2.3. Also, his strikeout to walk rate remained very similar even when his ERA went up his 2nd season, unlike Woods whose rate went from 3.31 to 1 to 1.91 to 1. This suggests that Wood is no longer fooling hitters after they've seen him once. Go ahead, make that offer--but if you do be ready to include more than AAA spare parts. You might get him for Wood and Stubbs. Every season it seems people want to throw together packages that include a bunch of spare parts or blocked prospects approaching their late 20's to get a frontline player....it just doesn't work that way.

[HammerTime]

Wood does NOT have Cliff Lee's stuff. Also, you're counting his first season's total when he threw 10 innings? If you take his first 3 seasons then his WAR goes 0.4, 0.5 and 2.3. Also, his strikeout to walk rate remained very similar even when his ERA went up his 2nd season, unlike Woods whose rate went from 3.31 to 1 to 1.91 to 1. This suggests that Wood is no longer fooling hitters after they've seen him once. Go ahead, make that offer--but if you do be ready to include more than AAA spare parts. You might get him for Wood and Stubbs. Every season it seems people want to throw together packages that include a bunch of spare parts or blocked prospects approaching their late 20's to get a frontline player....it just doesn't work that way.

 

I'm not even talking about the trade, I was just saying. They aren't trading for Reyes and that's that, don't really care for these "packages" because I don't want them to trade for him.

[HammerTime]

Lee SO/BB (Lee 1.99 , Wood 1.91) was right around where Wood's is now when he reached the 200 IP mark. Wood has less walks per 9 in that rime frame. They figured Lee out too his 2nd time around. It was next next year where it really all came together. So time will tell.

[UKMustangFan]

The guy the Reds are facing, Jakubauskas, is allowing a .301 avg. against him this year.

[SSC]

The guy the Reds are facing, Jakubauskas, is allowing a .301 avg. against him this year.

 

And I read that he played for the Florence Freedom at one point.

[westsider]

Every season it seems people want to throw together packages that include a bunch of spare parts or blocked prospects approaching their late 20's to get a frontline player....it just doesn't work that way.

Amen to that ...

[AverageJoesGym]

Lee SO/BB (Lee 1.99 , Wood 1.91) was right around where Wood's is now when he reached the 200 IP mark. Wood has less walks per 9 in that rime frame. They figured Lee out too his 2nd time around. It was next next year where it really all came together. So time will tell.

 

I wasn't talking about the raw number, I was pointing out the much larger drop in ratio for Wood. I know that pitchers usually develop slower than position players but Wood is not going to be the next Cliff Lee--he does not have that kind of stuff. He is a 4-5 starter on a good team, nothing more.

[UKMustangFan]

I wasn't talking about the raw number, I was pointing out the much larger drop in ratio for Wood. I know that pitchers usually develop slower than position players but Wood is not going to be the next Cliff Lee--he does not have that kind of stuff. He is a 4-5 starter on a good team, nothing more.

 

I don't recall Lee ever being touted as a can't miss stud when he was coming up...

[westsider]

I wasn't talking about the raw number, I was pointing out the much larger drop in ratio for Wood. I know that pitchers usually develop slower than position players but Wood is not going to be the next Cliff Lee--he does not have that kind of stuff. He is a 4-5 starter on a good team, nothing more.

I'm probably a little more optimistic on Wood's potential and future than you are, but we agree on the notion that he isn't going to be the major part of the package to get someone like Reyes.

 

Some here seem to forget that other teams have prospects to offer, too, even if the Mets aren't all that inclined to deal Reyes. After all, whatever package the Mets get for him needs to be better than two first-round draft picks and, perhaps, overcome the PR hit the Mets would take from sending him to another team in the midst of his career year.

[westsider]

I don't recall Lee ever being touted as a can't miss stud when he was coming up...

Lee was rated as one of the Expos' top prospects at a time when that system was among the best in the game. When the Expos traded Lee, Brandon Phillips and Grady Sizemore for Bartolo Colon, there were some (myself among them) that considered Lee as the best prospect in the deal.

[AverageJoesGym]

That's what I don't get about this argument. Who is going to give up a ton for Reyes with him saying he won't negotiate a new deal until the winter? Why give up more than a few prospects? The Mets would do it for two or three because they're broke and they can get known prospects rather than two picks in the 31-45 range. Wood is a better prospect by a million over anyone that goes 31st in next years draft. How many teams that are in contention need a SS as desperately as the Reds and have quite a few prospects?

 

A team that is already solidly a playoff team that needs a shortstop to win a World Series. I know that they have denied it, but do you think the Yankees wouldn't make an offer of someone at least as good as Wood if Jeter's injury turns into a season long problem? Same thing for the Red Sox if Lowrie is out for a long time with his shoulder and Scutaro isn't 100%. Teams like that will overpay for a rental because they know that they can replace those prospects with free agent signings in the offseason. Why would the Mets just give him away? They're only 1.5 games further out of the Wild Card race than the Reds and are about to get David Wright back. By all accounts they still have hopes of resigning Reyes even with their financial troubles. It will take more than spare parts and a 5th starter to get him.

[SSC]

A team that is already solidly a playoff team that needs a shortstop to win a World Series. I know that they have denied it, but do you think the Yankees wouldn't make an offer of someone at least as good as Wood if Jeter's injury turns into a season long problem? Same thing for the Red Sox if Lowrie is out for a long time with his shoulder and Scutaro isn't 100%. Teams like that will overpay for a rental because they know that they can replace those prospects with free agent signings in the offseason. Why would the Mets just give him away? They're only 1.5 games further out of the Wild Card race than the Reds and are about to get David Wright back. By all accounts they still have hopes of resigning Reyes even with their financial troubles. It will take more than spare parts and a 5th starter to get him.

 

When is the last time the Yankees made a huge trade in season? They aren't trading for Reyes. Also, I'm on record saying if I was the Reds I'd offer a catching prospect, Cozart, Wood and another prospect.