Bowling Green at Covington Catholic Predictions/Updates (5A Semifinals)

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

2020 has been a strange year by all standards, but Covington Catholic football has made the most they could of it, now reaching the semifinals of the 5A playoffs. The Colonels are coming into the semifinals following an unusual week-off from game play after quarterfinal opponent Madison Southern was forced to forfeit due to COVID quarantine. A week off during the playoffs is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it’s a week of sitting idle and could be seen as an opportunity to “cool off” when you want your team to be firing hot on all cylinders. On the other hand, a short break from the action is also a chance to rest and heal, which in the case of the battered and bruised Colonels, is almost assuredly appreciated by the coaching staff. After losing WR/DB Ezzy Shields and WR/DB Isaiah Roedig for the season within the first few games this year, Cov Cath has seen a lot of players miss time due to injury, including primary RB Owen Nally, WR/DB Garrett Benke, TE/DE Trevor Wilson, TE/LB Sam France, TE/LB David Sullivan, and OL/LB Luke Stegman.

Fortunately, the Colonels have seen a lot of underclassmen stepping up and making things happen when it comes down to it. Coach Eviston and Coach Brown have been able to lean on players like sophomores OL/DL Max Lawrie, TE/LB Aiden Jones, OL/DL Peighton Finck, and RB/LB Blake Folke when they need to, and have been able to pull them into the game on a moment’s notice to fill whichever spots they’ve needed.

Friday will be the fourth time in program history that Bowling Green and Covington Catholic have seen one another on the football field. They first played in the 3A state finals in 1994 with Cov Cath winning 24-21, then they saw each other again in the 3A finals in 2006 with Cov Cath winning 27-8, and then they played last year in the 5A semifinals at Cov Cath where the Colonels beat the Purples 28-0.

This year the Colonels’ biggest tasks will be stopping the offensive one-two punch of senior Javeius Bunton at running back and UK commit Jordan Dingle at tight end. Those two have accounted for nearly half of Bowling Green’s offensive yardage this season. On the flip side of the ball, the Cov Cath offense is going to have their biggest task in getting their running game going. Bowling Green’s defense has been giving up an average 225 yards a game, with only a third of those yards being given up to the run. The Colonels have averaged 345 yards a game on offense, with just over half of those yards being gained rushing. Speed has been an issue for Cov Cath’s defensive secondary all season, and with linebackers in and out of games in recent weeks because of injury, the defense will have their work cut out for them this week. WR/DB Zion Mason’s eligibility is undoubtably going to be a shot in the arm for them on both sides of the ball, and depending on the state of Owen Nally and his knee, we may see more of speedsters Reid Hummel and freshman transfer Cam Geisler in the offensive backfield.

Now I’ll flip it over to @Purple88 for a look at things from the Bowling Green camp.

[Purple88]

Bowling Green (8-2) rolls into the 5A State Semi-Finals for the 11^th time since 2005.  They have a record of 8 wins and 2 defeats in those State Semi-Final games, including last year’s shutout loss at Covington Catholic (28-0).  They most recently earned this Semi-Finals ticket via defeating the North Bullitt Eagles 55-7 in the last game at El Donaldson Stadium (241 wins vs 68 defeats All-Time at El Donaldson Stadium).  BG surrendered the first points of the game off a turnover, but never looked back after that.  BG was led by strong efforts on offense from SR QB Conner Cooper, SR RB Javy Bunton and a strong offensive line.  The Purples defense was led by a tough defensive line and big hits by SR LB Rece Jones and the surging play of SR safety Seth Rainville and SO safety Bert Kabawa, who both now have big interceptions in back to back games to lead the Purple D. 

Bowling Green has only faced Covington Catholic 3 times with the Colonels winning all 3 games.  The first was a heartbreaker for Purples fans.  I recall going to Old Cardinal Stadium in 1994 with Purple Star Derrick Kennedy being stopped by a fine Colonel D at the 1-yard line as time expired.  CovCath prevailed 24-21 to win the 1994 3A Championship.  In 2006, at Papa John’s Stadium, BG just couldn’t get anything going that day and fell in the 3A Finals again - CovCath 27- BG 8. 

Last season, Bowling Green got past a fine South Oldham squad for the Regional Championship and made their way to Wooten Field (I think that’s correct) to meet top ranked Covington Catholic in the 5A Semi-Finals.  Bowling Green’s star Vito Tisdale suffered a broken hand in the South Oldham game but still played in a cast on defense.  But the star of that game was Colonel Superstar Michael Mayer, who did it all for the Colonels that day and blanked BG 28-0. 

For Bowling Green to travel to Park Hills and come away with a more Purple-friendly result, my 5 Purple Keys to the game include:

1.      Put pressure on Colonel QB Caleb Jacob!  The Senior QB played great in the 2019 version of this game, but he seemed to have all the time in the world back there.  Purples must flip this.

2.      The Purples offense must limit turnovers.  If a receiver isn’t open, simply throw it away.  BG can live with punts but not with setting a good Colonel offense up deep in BG territory.

3.      Establish the run.  This is what the Purples tried to do in 2019 to no avail, thanks in part to Mr. Mayer.  The Purples have 4 senior OLinemen and a very good senior RB in Javy Bunton.  Now’s the time to shine.

4.      QB Conner Cooper needs to play his game (passing on the run, timely runs and timely throws out of bounds)!  Last year was a tough spot for him I think, but I feel he’s peaking right now and ready to flip the script! 

5.      Be timely in the passing game.  They have mixed it up nicely depending on what the opponent gives them.  CovCath will be/is very well coached especially with 2 weeks to prepare for this game.  The Purples will need to take what the defense gives them.  Similar to what they did in the last South Warren game.  Dingle was double covered most of the night with help coming from OSU commit Jantzen Dunn, so they went elsewhere.  Don’t force it and you’ll be fine!

Notice 4 of my 5 keys above are related to the offense.  That’s because the Purple defense has been rock solid all year.  They opened the slate blanking St X at St X.  Yes, they gave up 42 points to Trinity, but they played well IMO in that game too.  And other than the crazy 13 turnover game vs South Warren yielding 24 points, haven’t given up more than 12 points on the year!  CovCath will test the BG defense strongly, but I expect them to compete much more completely than 2019.  And I expect the Purples offense, who has put up 96 points in the last 2 games and playing their best right now, to have more success than last year.  Hoping the Purples can earn their first win in this series right here!  My prediction for this game:

Bowling Green - 21

Covington Catholic - 14

[Killowatt59]

Great write-ups by both of you guys! Thanks for that.

Another main event matchup!!  Get ready to buckle up for this one. It's makes me nervous that CC quarterback is back from last year. He was was good. @Purple88 is spot as usual with his keys, especially about putting the pressure on the QB. CC's offensive line gave him all day to throw last year.

BG's also got to get over the mental aspect of having never beaten CC. I know the games are years apart, but BG seems to have bad mojo when playing CC.

But if you just compare the schedules and a lot of the stats, to me BG would be the favorite here. It wouldn't be by much, but just picking a winner going by the schedule and stats BG has the edge.

It's going to be a slug fest. I don't have a lot to add to what @Purple88 said. BG has to get to the QB. Don't turn the ball over at all. And score some points. Cooper has to be on point with the throws and the decisions. He also needs to run to make plays.

I'm looking forward to this one, but also nervous cause it's a toss-up to me given the bad mojo BG seems to have here. 

Wish I could make up for this game. I went last year and had a great time and appreciated how nice all the CC fans and staff were. But COVID has prevented me from going to any games this year. Boo.

Buckle up and get your popcorn ready. Who knows what is going to happen. 

Forgot to make my prediction. I say BG 28-21.

[NLTanker1]

I don't know enough, other than what I read above, to vote. I saw BG play once this year against Trinity. But im throwing that out the window. I want to think this will be a back and forth barn burner. Quite the drive for BG, and travel time can wear a team down. 

I'm thinking..

CC- 41

BG- 38

[Killowatt59]

1 minute ago, NLTanker1 said:

I don't know enough, other than what I read above, to vote. I saw BG play once this year against Trinity. But im throwing that out the window. I want to think this will be a back and forth barn burner. Quite the drive for BG, and travel time can wear a team down. 

I'm thinking..

CC- 41

BG- 38

Cov. Cath might win, but I'd be shocked if BG gave up 41 in this game.

[Purple88]

1 minute ago, NLTanker1 said:

I don't know enough, other than what I read above, to vote. I saw BG play once this year against Trinity. But im throwing that out the window. I want to think this will be a back and forth barn burner. Quite the drive for BG, and travel time can wear a team down. 

I'm thinking..

CC- 41

BG- 38

You realize your Shamrocks scored 42 points on BG.

So you think CovCath can score one point less than Trinity on BGs defense?

[Purplepride]

Great write-ups from everyone. This game could be as exciting as the SW/BG game! Across town rivals tend to pack a tad more emotion.. but I don’t think you have to dig too deep in the Semi-Finals to find emotion from these players.. especially this year with Covid!! 
I believe this is most certainly the game to watch! The QB matchup will be exciting. On paper, their stats are pretty comparable. I believe CC’s QB has 9 INT’s where BG’s has 5 (3 which came in that SW game). They both seem to be amazing with their legs. However, it seems ON PAPER,  that Cooper has more help and isn’t completely relied on like Jacob is. Jacob has carried the ball 103 times for 508 yards and 15 TD’s. That seems like a lot of QB keepers to me.. lol. He leads CC in rushing and about everything else. Cooper has carried the ball 67 times with 322 yards.  
A run heavy offense HAS NOT faired well against BG all year. It could be a long night for Jacob if their passing game isn’t working for them. Honestly, the way the BG’s secondary has been flying around the last 2 games, I’m pretty excited to see a high caliber offense play them. 
I’m not sure if CC has faced a RB like Bunton all year either. BG has looked pretty solid the last 2 weeks. We will see tho. Again, I think it will be 2 great teams ready to battle! 
 

Also, I’m told only CC will be live streaming for a $15 fee. They aren’t allowing BG’s normal media streaming to take place. They are allowing D93 to broadcast on the radio, but no video feed. Anyone have any information on this?? 

[Killowatt59]

1 minute ago, Purplepride said:

Great write-ups from everyone. This game could be as exciting as the SW/BG game! Across town rivals tend to pack a tad more emotion.. but I don’t think you have to dig too deep in the Semi-Finals to find emotion from these players.. especially this year with Covid!! 
I believe this is most certainly the game to watch! The QB matchup will be exciting. On paper, their stats are pretty comparable. I believe CC’s QB has 9 INT’s where BG’s has 5 (3 which came in that SW game). They both seem to be amazing with their legs. However, it seems ON PAPER,  that Cooper has more help and isn’t completely relied on like Jacob is. Jacob has carried the ball 103 times for 508 yards and 15 TD’s. That seems like a lot of QB keepers to me.. lol. He leads CC in rushing and about everything else. Cooper has carried the ball 67 times with 322 yards.  
A run heavy offense HAS NOT faired well against BG all year. It could be a long night for Jacob if their passing game isn’t working for them. Honestly, the way the BG’s secondary has been flying around the last 2 games, I’m pretty excited to see a high caliber offense play them. 
I’m not sure if CC has faced a RB like Bunton all year either. BG has looked pretty solid the last 2 weeks. We will see tho. Again, I think it will be 2 great teams ready to battle! 
 

Also, I’m told only CC will be live streaming for a $15 fee. They aren’t allowing BG’s normal media streaming to take place. They are allowing D93 to broadcast on the radio, but no video feed. Anyone have any information on this?? 

Oh man. Really?  Now that's pretty lame and a strike against CC if true.

[Purplepride]

@Killowatt59 that’s the information coming down the pipeline. That the game can be viewed on CC’s website for a fee of $15. D93 can broadcast on the radio only. 
So one-sided commentating as well. 
 

Would love more information on this topic!! 

[Killowatt59]

1 minute ago, Purplepride said:

@Killowatt59 that’s the information coming down the pipeline. That the game can be viewed on CC’s website for a fee of $15. D93 can broadcast on the radio only. 
So one-sided commentating as well. 
 

Would love more information on this topic!! 

I'll reach out to my contacts and see what I can I find out. Sheesh.

[Brown]

Wow excellent write-ups guys!  I have to say losing Vito and company but still having a great defense is somewhat surprising to me.  I knew BG will always field a top defense, but this group impresses me.  I saw them first hand vs. McCracken and they hit hard and are fast.  I think the purples’ offense is peaking at the right time.

 

Purples 21-14.

[Killowatt59]

6 minutes ago, Purplepride said:

@Killowatt59 that’s the information coming down the pipeline. That the game can be viewed on CC’s website for a fee of $15. D93 can broadcast on the radio only. 
So one-sided commentating as well. 
 

Would love more information on this topic!! 

Okay can confirm my sources this is true. 👎

Was also told "they might be generous enough to let us do radio". 

So that is not guaranteed either.  

 

Man what a strike to CC. No COVID is not an excuse, especially if they end up letting them do radio up there. And charging $15.  What a joke and pretty much a disgrace. Wish the KHSAA would step in here. With tickets already limited lots of fans looking for a broadcast. Now no local video broadcast for sure.

Also now have to figure out how to bring up theor video broadcast on my TV. What a disaster.

 

Cov. Catholic you just made the list!

 

[Tigerpride94]

I like BG in a close one. I think BG defense will be strong enough to get them the W. I think BG has played a tougher schedule to prepare them for this game. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cov Cath wins, but I think BG gets the W.

[Volxtile]

I was going to pick BG 28-14, but after hearing I have to pay $15 to watch it with one sided commentary, I’ll take BG 35-14.

 

All jokes aside, I don’t know much about CC this year besides they aren’t as good as last year.  I believe the BG DL will control the game and the BG speed will simply be too much for CC, I look forward to a good game!

[LongTimeReader]

I think this will be a relatively low scoring game. I think BG will do what they do offensively, but won't be in much of a hurry.