Adam Dunn - Team Leader

[UKMustangFan]

While you are correct that the inning might be prolonged if Mauer is up its not correct to say that a run is more likely to score. If it is, the percentage that it will go up is miniscule.

 

It would be an interesting scenario to measure. Does a big bopper produce more runs in that sitch than a strong avg guy?

 

Using Mauer in my example, may not have been appropriate as he was responsible for produce 152 runs last year while Dunn only produced 148.

[Jim Schue]

This statement is hilarious to me. So are we complaining about how a guy gets 40 HR/100 RBI/ 100 Runs? Who on the Reds this year will do that? Perhaps Votto and he is being hailed as MVP. I have always felt Dunn was tremendously under-appareciated. His stat profile is one of the more unique ones ever in baseball and everyone wants to pigeon hole him into a traditional role.

 

I do agree he is not that clutch hitter we want at the plate with a runner on third. Although you would be surprised at how many "clutch" HR's he hit in his years with the Reds. I do not have the stat but I have heard it cited by knowledgeable people more than once about how many "clutch" HR's and hits he got versus what the public perception is.

 

My contention has always been that Dunn should be hitting #2 in the lineup. Great on base percentage; big left hander in the box that helps if you have a base stealer batting lead off; won't kill innings by hitting into double plays (a side benefit from K's and low contact that is great when batting #2); produces and scores runs. It may not fit the hit it the other way punch and judy hitter the traditionalists want batting #2 but think how good he could be batting #2 in a lineup.

 

If he doesn't get to 600 HR's in his career it will be a surprise. And all people want to talk about is laid back personality and strikeouts. Give me a break. Dunn is the most under rated, under appreciated player in baseball over the past 10 years and it isn't even close.

 

That's fine and dandy. You're a Dunn fan, obviously, and willing to gloss over the glaring weaknesses of his that kept the Reds from being a better team.

 

I watch as many Reds games as anybody, and I recall exactly one clutch homer during Dunn's time, and that was a walk-off grand slam several years ago against the Indians. Otherwise it was coming in meaningless situations, for the most part, trimming a five-run deficit to four. The fact that only one stands out in my mind says a lot about his performance in the big moments.

[stickymitts]

Offensively Dunn is an asset to any team. You guys are trying to say that if Dunn was up with runners in scoring position every single time, he would rarely, if ever, produce. You can't completely disregard the rest of his production. That simply doesn't make sense.

 

If you don't think 40/100 helps your ballclub, I question your baseball knowledge. Of course his high K total hurts, but his run producing clip far outweighs that negative.

[stickymitts]

That's fine and dandy. You're a Dunn fan, obviously, and willing to gloss over the glaring weaknesses of his that kept the Reds from being a better team.

 

I watch as many Reds games as anybody, and I recall exactly one clutch homer during Dunn's time, and that was a walk-off grand slam several years ago against the Indians. Otherwise it was coming in meaningless situations, for the most part, trimming a five-run deficit to four. The fact that only one stands out in my mind says a lot about his performance in the big moments.

 

So your problem with Dunn is that he only produced when his TEAMMATES were not on base? It sounds like the other guys are the issue.

[UKMustangFan]

Sorry Clyde, but when guys like Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts, and Mark Reynolds are producing more runs in a season than Dunn, your point doesn't seem too on point.

[UKMustangFan]

Let's add Kevin Youklis, Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez, and David Ortiz as guys that produced as many or more runs than Dunn last year.

[stickymitts]

Let's add Kevin Youklis, Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez, and David Ortiz as guys that produced as many or more runs than Dunn last year.

 

You don't think Dunn would produce more runs if you switched him with any one of those guys? When has he EVER hit with a lineup like that?

[Jim Schue]

So your problem with Dunn is that he only produced when his TEAMMATES were not on base? It sounds like the other guys are the issue.

 

No, my beef is he rarely produced when his teammates WERE on base ahead of him. If he was producing in those situations his RBI-HR rate would be a more acceptable 3:1 than closer to 2:1 like it actually is.

[UKMustangFan]

You don't think Dunn would produce more runs if you switched him with any one of those guys? When has he EVER hit with a lineup like that?

 

So what's his excuse for Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts outproducing him?

[Jim Schue]

So what's his excuse for Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts outproducing him?

 

:lol::lol:

[UKMustangFan]

Now I will admit, I'm using a much more simplistic formula than the almight SABREmetrics....RBIs+Rs-HRs=Runs Produced.

[westsider]

Dunn's career numbers ... .252 BA, .382 OBP, .524 SLP, .906 OPS

with RISP ... .231 BA, .413 OBP, .477 SLP, .890 OPS

with runner on 3B and less than two outs ... .292 BA, .429 OBP, .572 SLP, 1.001 OPS

 

According to baseball-reference.com, his career stats are better in at-bats in close games than in games where the margin is more than four runs. In 338 plate appearances with a runner on 3B and less than two outs, he has 26 sac flies ... so I would say the 0-for-65 streak is a little fluky.

 

I would say that some of you guys have cloudy memories or are just a bit biased ...

[Clyde]

I didn't address it because I can't take seriously any rating that says Dunn is more clutch than Votto.

 

Again, what we think we saw is not what we really saw.

[Clyde]

That's fine and dandy. You're a Dunn fan, obviously, and willing to gloss over the glaring weaknesses of his that kept the Reds from being a better team.

 

I watch as many Reds games as anybody, and I recall exactly one clutch homer during Dunn's time, and that was a walk-off grand slam several years ago against the Indians. Otherwise it was coming in meaningless situations, for the most part, trimming a five-run deficit to four. The fact that only one stands out in my mind says a lot about his performance in the big moments.

 

You're sadly mistaken if you think Dunn is the reason the Reds weren't a better team.

[AverageJoesGym]

Now I will admit, I'm using a much more simplistic formula than the almight SABREmetrics....RBIs+Rs-HRs=Runs Produced.

 

You claim to be a Red Sox fan--so you should know that a lot of the Sox personnel decisions are made using those SABREmetrics......and they have been pretty successful using them. The RBI+Rs-HR formula very much favors guys that score a lot of runs and don't hit a lot of homeruns. Guys like Mauer and Pujols are going to look good no matter what version of runs produced you use. However, you take a leadoff hitter that scores 100 runs and hits 5 homers they only have to drive in 65 to match a guy like Dunn. For instance, using the simplistic version Michael Young has produced 122 runs, Albert Pujols 119 and Joey Votto 121. He's a nice player, but is he in their class as a run producer? We know the answer to that one. At least try to use valid stats.