Adam Dunn - Team Leader

[Clyde]

Exactly. That's why I never was impressed with the 40 HR/100 RBI line. Those RBIs should've been around 120-130.

 

No player is getting 20 to 30 additional RBIs per year due to SFs.

 

And in your "40/100" you left out another "100" for runs scored. We can all agree that producing a run is the name of the game, correct?

[Clyde]

Where do you come up with that number?

 

Its a SABRmetrics stat.

[UKMustangFan]

Its a SABRmetrics stat.

 

From???

[Jim Schue]

Positive. Because it was the 7th inning when the NL took the lead. Rolen got it all started with a single, then went 1st to third on the base hit by Marlon Byrd I believe it was.

 

Now that I think about it, I am remembering it wrong. Oh well, I was at the bar that night, so that's my excuse.

[Clyde]

From???

 

Stat geeks.

 

As Sean showed in his article, and has been shown elsewhere, the expected value of a replacement level player is about negative 20 runs per 600 PA. Or, to phrase it a bit differently, if you lost a league average player and replaced him with a freely available guy, you’d lose about two wins.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-four/

 

 

"..10 runs are enough to swing the pendulum by one game so baseball analysts equate 10 runs with one win."

 

 

http://books.google.com/books?id=VsmnfVUKJskC&pg=PA382&lpg=PA382&dq=ten+runs+equates+to+one+win&source=bl&ots=t55I0cAk_4&sig=layE_-uhWEKs2BzGGIRk4K7PDvk&hl=en&ei=sS5cTOa5BcP98AbRmoyEDw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=10&ved=0CDQQ6AEwCQ#v=onepage&q&f=false

[Jim Schue]

No player is getting 20 to 30 additional RBIs per year due to SFs.

 

And in your "40/100" you left out another "100" for runs scored. We can all agree that producing a run is the name of the game, correct?

 

I was speaking in general terms about the RBIs. I've always been of the opinion that your RBI total should be 3x that of your HR total. If you're hitting at a respectable level, that 3:1 ratio should be no problem for a major league hitter. As far as 100 runs goes, that's something he should be doing anyway if he's truly the fearsome offensive force that some suggest. But the reality is he's just a notch above a Dave Kingman (who actually struck out less frequently than Dunn does).

[Clyde]

The name of the game is creating runs. Bill James created a measure of that.

 

RC (Link)

Runs Created. Invented by Bill James, RC is a very good measure of the number of runs a batter truly contributed to his team’s offense. The basic formula for RC is OBP*TB, but it has evolved into over fourteen different versions. We use the most complicated version, which includes the impact of hitting well with runners in scoring position, and is adjusted for ballpark impact. RC/G refers to Runs Created Per Game, which Runs Created divided by the number of outs made by the batter, times 27.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/#rc

 

Dunn's RC stats:

 

2009 8th in NL

2007 20th in NL (with Reds then)

2006 28th in NL

2005 12th in NL

 

The guy produces runs which is exactly how you win games offensively. Just think what those stats would be if he talent around him.

[Clyde]

I was speaking in general terms about the RBIs. I've always been of the opinion that your RBI total should be 3x that of your HR total. If you're hitting at a respectable level, that 3:1 ratio should be no problem for a major league hitter. As far as 100 runs goes, that's something he should be doing anyway if he's truly the fearsome offensive force that some suggest. But the reality is he's just a notch above a Dave Kingman (who actually struck out less frequently than Dunn does).

 

I think you will agree with the following:

 

RBIs are one component of producing runs.

RBIs are tied to talent around you.

 

As to "he should be scoring 100 runs anyway" 10 players in the NL scored 100 last year and most of them were on good teams ie talent around them to produce more runs.

[Jim Schue]

The name of the game is creating runs. Bill James created a measure of that.

 

RC (Link)

Runs Created. Invented by Bill James, RC is a very good measure of the number of runs a batter truly contributed to his team’s offense. The basic formula for RC is OBP*TB, but it has evolved into over fourteen different versions. We use the most complicated version, which includes the impact of hitting well with runners in scoring position, and is adjusted for ballpark impact. RC/G refers to Runs Created Per Game, which Runs Created divided by the number of outs made by the batter, times 27.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/#rc

 

Dunn's RC stats:

 

2009 8th in NL

2007 20th in NL (with Reds then)

2006 28th in NL

2005 12th in NL

 

The guy produces runs which is exactly how you win games offensively. Just think what those stats would be if he talent around him.

 

I've always looked at it from the standpoint of "just think what his stats would be if he bothered to work on cutting down on his Ks and got better at putting the ball in play with two strikes."

[History]

Arizona got him to help them in to the playoffs. It failed. Not much of a market for him as a free agent.

Didn't get moved at this trade deadline.

 

When I saw him play in the minors-I thought he was going to be an all-time great. Maybe it was steroids or something else, but he is one of the laziest baseball players I have ever seen. To the point of the thread-again he is not a leader. He may be a stat sheet stuffer and great in fantasy baseball, but you can have him in real life. He'll play a long time, and will be known for monster home runs, but not for being on winning clubs.

[Jim Schue]

I think you will agree with the following:

 

RBIs are one component of producing runs.

RBIs are tied to talent around you.

 

Sure they are. But you're acting like Dunn had no opportunities to drive in runs, when we've already shown that he had lots. The Reds as a whole were a good hitting team when he was here.

[Clyde]

I've always looked at it from the standpoint of "just think what his stats would be if he bothered to work on cutting down on his Ks and got better at putting the ball in play with two strikes."

 

So you're saying if he did that he would go from a top 10 to 20 player to a top 5? We'd all take that. However, if he's ONLY in the top 20 is that problem?

[UKMustangFan]

So you're saying if he did that he would go from a top 10 to 20 player to a top 5? We'd all take that. However, if he's ONLY in the top 20 is that problem?

 

:lol: :lol:

 

Ok, I know you didn't really just call Adam Dunn a top 10-20 player in baseball....You're way smarter than that Clyde. He's not even close.

[kyvince]

Adam Dunn is a product of the environment in which he came up. He had/has an incredible athletic ability. He has averaged over 40 home runs the past 6 years, and is on pace to do so again. He is not a clutch hitter, and in my opinion never will be. He makes a living off of "mistake" pitches. Late in games or in clutch situations pitchers have a tendancy to bear down and focus on their pitches. That is when Dunn struggles. I don't think he is a bad guy and I don't buy in that he is a cancer. However, his work ethic leaves something to be desired. If you talk to anyone who watched Dunn as a HS Football player, they will tell you the same thing, great athlete terrible work ethic. He came to the major's and quite honestly had pretty good success. He never saw the need for the "extra" effort, because he was having success.

 

I don't remember the Manager, don't remember the year. But, the Reds were trying him at 1b in spring training. He was instructed that he needed extra fielding practice. For Dunn that meant 2 times during that spring season, he stayed an extra 20 minutes to 1/2 hour and fielded ground balls. He wasn't pushed by the Management or by more senior players like Griffey and Larkin to push himself harder.

 

So if you want to "rent" Dunn for a couple months, I don't think it is a bad idea. The pennant chance might be what he needs to stay focused. However,

I don't want someone with poor work ethic to be a long term presence on my team. I don't think he is a Cancer like some, but I also don't think he is leader or a role model I want around a predominately young team.

[Clyde]

Sure they are. But you're acting like Dunn had no opportunities to drive in runs, when we've already shown that he had lots. The Reds as a whole were a good hitting team when he was here.

 

Only in 05 were they a strong offensive team.

NL team stats:

 

In 06 they were 9th in runs, 13th in hits, 7th in OBP, and 15th in avg.

In 07 they were 7th in runs, 9th in hits, 8th in OBP, and 9th in avg.