Only in 05 were they a strong offensive team.

NL team stats:

 

In 06 they were 9th in runs, 13th in hits, 7th in OBP, and 15th in avg.

In 07 they were 7th in runs, 9th in hits, 8th in OBP, and 9th in avg.

 

Just imagine how much better those numbers would be if Dunn was able to produce when the opportunity to pick up his teammates presented itself.

:lol: :lol:

 

Ok, I know you didn't really just call Adam Dunn a top 10-20 player in baseball....You're way smarter than that Clyde. He's not even close.

 

Exactly. Just because some math majors say he's top 10 doesn't make it so. They're only looking at the raw numbers out of context and not the situations.

:lol: :lol:

 

Ok, I know you didn't really just call Adam Dunn a top 10-20 player in baseball....You're way smarter than that Clyde. He's not even close.

 

I said he was a top 20 run producer. I'll take run producers every day.

Exactly. Just because some math majors say he's top 10 doesn't make it so. They're only looking at the raw numbers out of context and not the situations.

 

So you're discrediting the contention that runs produced are a key factor in winning games? Bill James expertise doesn't count?

 

Out of context? Unlike you and I they look at real results and correlations. We just look at what we learned from the 7 columns on the back of Topps growing up.

Adam Dunn is a product of the environment in which he came up. He had/has an incredible athletic ability. He has averaged over 40 home runs the past 6 years, and is on pace to do so again. He is not a clutch hitter, and in my opinion never will be. He makes a living off of "mistake" pitches. Late in games or in clutch situations pitchers have a tendancy to bear down and focus on their pitches. That is when Dunn struggles. I don't think he is a bad guy and I don't buy in that he is a cancer. However, his work ethic leaves something to be desired. If you talk to anyone who watched Dunn as a HS Football player, they will tell you the same thing, great athlete terrible work ethic. He came to the major's and quite honestly had pretty good success. He never saw the need for the "extra" effort, because he was having success.

 

I don't remember the Manager, don't remember the year. But, the Reds were trying him at 1b in spring training. He was instructed that he needed extra fielding practice. For Dunn that meant 2 times during that spring season, he stayed an extra 20 minutes to 1/2 hour and fielded ground balls. He wasn't pushed by the Management or by more senior players like Griffey and Larkin to push himself harder.

 

So if you want to "rent" Dunn for a couple months, I don't think it is a bad idea. The pennant chance might be what he needs to stay focused. However,

I don't want someone with poor work ethic to be a long term presence on my team. I don't think he is a Cancer like some, but I also don't think he is leader or a role model I want around a predominately young team.

 

Maybe his natural talent and athletic ability/skills causes him to not work as hard as some wish.

 

He moved to 1B and has taken to it quite well.

 

His FP% is strong. His range factor is above average (higher than Votto for example). He has 6 errors which is 3 more than Votto. He's solid. Not a gold glover but certainly pretty good.

 

The "clutch" issue is hard to define but Bill James has come up with one way to measure it.

 

In 2009, Pujols was .3, Howard was .2, BP was .5 , Votto was -1.9.

 

Dunn was 2.2.

I said he was a top 20 run producer. I'll take run producers every day.

 

No, you said player.

No, you said player.

 

I meant in the area of runs created.

 

Duly noted.

 

You want to argue that he's not a top run producer?

I meant in the area of runs created.

 

Duly noted.

 

You want to argue that he's not a top run producer?

 

Does he rank in the top 20 in runs produced? Most likely.

 

Can I name 20+ guys GMs would rather have than Dunn as their primary run producer? Absolutely.

So you're discrediting the contention that runs produced are a key factor in winning games? Bill James expertise doesn't count?

 

Out of context? Unlike you and I they look at real results and correlations. We just look at what we learned from the 7 columns on the back of Topps growing up.

 

Didn't say it didn't count. Just that it's probably overvalued and doesn't adequately measure performance in critical situations. You have to be able to take the numbers along with the eyeball test. True, all runs count the same on the back of the baseball card, but to say that a solo homer when you're down 6-1 counts the same as an RBI single to tie the game in the 9th is allowing yourself a blind spot when it comes to the big picture.

With all those big numbers you would think he would be the #1 free agent, but he won't be. As Jim Schue said-more to a player than the back of a baseball card, and Dunn's reputation is solidly in place now.

Another thing not taken into account with these stats is, setting up run production. Say you've got a guy on 1st with 2 outs and a guy like Dunn is up. Most likely the inning will end without the run scoring. Now say in that same situation, you have someone like Joe Mauer or Miguel Cabrera up. Run is a whole lot more likely to score IMO. Why? Because Mauer or Cabrera are a whole lot more likely to get a base hit, to extend the inning and give someone else the opportunity to knock in that run. It could be argued that the guy that prolongs the inning and puts the runner in scoring position is almost as responsible for the run as the guy who actually drives him in.

Exactly. That's why I never was impressed with the 40 HR/100 RBI line. Those RBIs should've been around 120-130.

 

This statement is hilarious to me. So are we complaining about how a guy gets 40 HR/100 RBI/ 100 Runs? Who on the Reds this year will do that? Perhaps Votto and he is being hailed as MVP. I have always felt Dunn was tremendously under-appareciated. His stat profile is one of the more unique ones ever in baseball and everyone wants to pigeon hole him into a traditional role.

 

I do agree he is not that clutch hitter we want at the plate with a runner on third. Although you would be surprised at how many "clutch" HR's he hit in his years with the Reds. I do not have the stat but I have heard it cited by knowledgeable people more than once about how many "clutch" HR's and hits he got versus what the public perception is.

 

My contention has always been that Dunn should be hitting #2 in the lineup. Great on base percentage; big left hander in the box that helps if you have a base stealer batting lead off; won't kill innings by hitting into double plays (a side benefit from K's and low contact that is great when batting #2); produces and scores runs. It may not fit the hit it the other way punch and judy hitter the traditionalists want batting #2 but think how good he could be batting #2 in a lineup.

 

If he doesn't get to 600 HR's in his career it will be a surprise. And all people want to talk about is laid back personality and strikeouts. Give me a break. Dunn is the most under rated, under appreciated player in baseball over the past 10 years and it isn't even close.

Didn't say it didn't count. Just that it's probably overvalued and doesn't adequately measure performance in critical situations. You have to be able to take the numbers along with the eyeball test. True, all runs count the same on the back of the baseball card, but to say that a solo homer when you're down 6-1 counts the same as an RBI single to tie the game in the 9th is allowing yourself a blind spot when it comes to the big picture.

 

That's why I cited the "clutch" rating.

Another thing not taken into account with these stats is, setting up run production. Say you've got a guy on 1st with 2 outs and a guy like Dunn is up. Most likely the inning will end without the run scoring. Now say in that same situation, you have someone like Joe Mauer or Miguel Cabrera up. Run is a whole lot more likely to score IMO. Why? Because Mauer or Cabrera are a whole lot more likely to get a base hit, to extend the inning and give someone else the opportunity to knock in that run. It could be argued that the guy that prolongs the inning and puts the runner in scoring position is almost as responsible for the run as the guy who actually drives him in.

 

While you are correct that the inning might be prolonged if Mauer is up its not correct to say that a run is more likely to score. If it is, the percentage that it will go up is miniscule.

 

It would be an interesting scenario to measure. Does a big bopper produce more runs in that sitch than a strong avg guy?

That's why I cited the "clutch" rating.

 

I didn't address it because I can't take seriously any rating that says Dunn is more clutch than Votto.