Paducah Tilghman at Covington Catholic Predictions/Updates

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

After two rounds against one another in the 1987 & 1988 AAA Finals, the Blue Tornado and the Colonels definitely needed a cooling-off period before taking on one another on the football field again. It was unclear at the time how long that cooling-off period would need to be, but apparently 35 years is the answer. After 35 years - 12,774 days, to be exact - Paducah Tilghman and Covington Catholic will once again meet on the gridiron for a third time in Park Hills on Friday night.

With all four semifinalist teams in 4A football heading into Friday's games with an undefeated record, this is all you could hope for out of a semifinal matchup. Junior quarterback Jack James leads the Blue Tornado's air-assault offense with a phenomenal 3,831 yards passing this season. Senior JoeAvion Starks and junior Martels Carter have been James' favorite receiving targets this season with over 1000 yards receiving each, but after leaving the game with an ankle injury in the second half on Friday night, Starks may be questionable for the semifinal matchup. Although they're young on the line of scrimmage, between sophomore Jarvis Strickland, senior Tomago Daniels, junior Nick Fox, junior Jamarion Ferguson and sophomore Ben Myers up front in the trenches, Paducah has the ability to do a lot of pushing around to give the offense over 1900 rushing yards this season, led by Demarkus Wilson with 1031 yards rushing this season. The Blue Tornado competition has blown away their opponents with 5,888 yards of total offense this season, while their defense has allowed a mere 2,437 yards to their opponents.

Tilghman's defense is led by linebackers Uriah Virzi & Jimmy Mooney, who both had 45 solo tackles heading into Friday night's quarterfinal game against Spencer County, followed by D-lineman NyYon Fitzgerald with his 33 solo tackles and safety Kylan Ware with 32. Paducah's defense also raises some eyebrows this year with an impressive 28 turnovers this season: 6 forced fumbles with 10 fumble recoveries, and 18 interceptions. With an average of 52 points per game this season, Paducah has outscored opponents 674 to 155 this season, and their defense has shut out 3 teams this year.

Covington Catholic also heads into the semifinal matchup on Friday with an undefeated 13-0 record, their fifth undefeated regular season in its 57 year program history. The Colonel offense continues to bring their balanced attack, almost exactly 50/50 run-to-pass, forcing opposing defenses to respect their game on the ground and in the air, both. Senior quarterback Evan Pitzer continues to impress in the pocket with his school record 72.8% passing percentage this season (155 for 213 with 4 INTs), and he's thrown for 2,508 yards and 32 touchdowns this season. Wideout Braylon Miller and TE Willie Rodriguez are the team's two top receivers, with 54 receptions for 836 yards & 8 touchdowns for Miller, and 27 receptions 470 yards & 12 touchdowns for Rodriguez. Oliver Link and Noah Johnson are also favorite passing targets for Pitzer this season. Senior RB Owen Leen continues to be the go-to rusher for the Colonels, with 767 yards and 12 touchdowns on 123 carries, while Pitzer is the teams #2 rusher with 513 yards and 9 touchdowns on 89 carries. Up front, the Colonels' offensive line is anchored by junior Andrew Huber, senior JP Sullivan, senior Ben Reeves, junior Mason Dietz, and senior Seth Jones who have paved the way for Cov Cath's 2,474 rushing yards this season.

On defense, Cov Cath is led by junior linebacker Tate Kruer with 82 solo tackles, followed by senior DL Ben Reeves and senior LB Josh Flood with 38 tackles a piece. Cornerback Logan Sanning comes in next with his 34 solo tackles. The Colonel defense has caused 17 turnovers this season, with 6 forced fumbles and 7 fumble recoveries plus 10 interceptions, including a pick-six by sophomore safety Cash Harney and a pick-six by sophomore cornerback Dylan Gaiser.

Marquee wins for each team this season:
Paducah Tilghman's 35-28 win over 2A Mayfield at home on September 1st.
Covington Catholic's 35-21 win over 5A Highlands in Fort Thomas on August 25th.

Who wins this battle on Friday night and punches their ticket to Kroger Field on December 1st?

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

On 11/17/2023 at 1:46 AM, Mr. Neutral said:

I think PT is very underrated. I understand the other side of the state doesn’t see the western teams enough to get a feel for how good these teams are. PT is a legit contender. They are well coached. They arguably have the best strength coach on this side of the state. I wish Mayfield coach would use their strength coach. They are a different animal. That number 5 ranking is a joke. Whoever is up next will see first hand. PT will beat Cov Cath handily when that match up happens. They don’t have a weakness on either side of the ball.

We know how @Mr. Neutral is going to be voting in the poll.

[colonel-fan]

The Tilghman logo is one of the best in the state. This should be a great game, really looking forward to this one.

[Toothpick]

Tilghman is ultra talented! if they can keep their mistakes to a minimum they will be a tough out.  The mistake bug has long been a trademark of Tilghman teams. 

[TilghmanPride]

3 hours ago, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

We know how @Mr. Neutral is going to be voting in the poll.

While I do agree about the strength coach, we're very fortunate to have him, I just don't feel like PT is underrated. Tilghman is definitely dangerous and on a given day can probably beat anyone, but that's probably the case for everyone left and just speaks to how great 4A football has been this year. 

There can only be one winner, and in a lot of years, all four of this years semi-finalist would win the title. Whoever gets it this time will have no doubt earned it. I'm looking for this game to be a classic. 

[bluecolonels95]

This game scares me with the Paducah passing attack. I think the weakest part of CCH defense is the secondary. We gave up some big pass plays to Ashland the week before.  Against better competition this year,  CCH usually gives up more than 20 points per game (Ryle, Highlands, Dixie, Beechwood, Ashland) , The 2nd half of regular season we played weak teams so that obviously helped lower the points per game average given up by our defense. 

This game looks to be a shootout. Probably like a 49-42 game. I hope CCH can find a way to win. 

I think the turnover battle will be key. Just don’t turn it over and let the other teams high powered offense be on the field. 
 

I’m hoping the long drive up here from Paducah wears them out mentally and physically. 
 

 

 

[Phoenix Kid]

This is going to be a battle for 4 quarters will be a great game to watch. This is one of the better Semi Final games. 

[hector607]

PT 49

CC 42

[MorrowManiac]

CC 35

PT 28

[Voice of Reason]

CCH defense vs PT offense. That is what this game comes down to. Cov Cath's excellence over the past 10 years has been led by their defense IMO. They may have not been up to their standard this year but I think the CCH defense will get it done in this game.

[TylerDurden]

I finally sat down and watched some film on PT last night and tonight. They definitely have speed at WR, which was why I was honestly kind of surprised to see how many of their passes are swing passes or screens. When I watched last night's game I counted 15 pass receptions by Tilghman. 10 were swing or screen passes, 3 were shallow cross or slant routes and only 2 were deep shots of 15+ yards. There were 3 or 4 more attempts at deep shots where the throw was off the mark plus another couple off-target passes on shallow routes. James is a very solid QB for a junior, but his long balls aren't as on the money as Coach Thompson might hope. If CC has a hard time defending screen passes it could be a long night for them.

Game write up mentions beef up front for Tilghman. That's no joke. PT's o-line has to average at least 300lbs a piece. Surprised they don't mix it up and run more behind those fellas.

[The Oracle]

1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:

CCH defense vs PT offense. That is what this game comes down to. Cov Cath's excellence over the past 10 years has been led by their defense IMO. They may have not been up to their standard this year but I think the CCH defense will get it done in this game.

Agree. IMO, Beechwood's pass game > Paducah's pass game. Beechwood's receivers are just as fast as Paducah's and they have a slightly better QB.

CCH got past Beechwood, and they're capable of getting past Paducah. Anyone who says PT beats CCH handily hasn't watched CCH play before or is wearing some awfully tinted glasses.

[TylerDurden]

4 hours ago, Toothpick said:

Tilghman is ultra talented! if they can keep their mistakes to a minimum they will be a tough out.  The mistake bug has long been a trademark of Tilghman teams. 

So they have a lot of penalties on the regular? I was watching the game last night and was shaking my head how many times they were flagged. At least 5 flags were for movement before the snap, which is a coaching/discipline issue. No more, no less.

On Tilghman's second or third offensive possession they must have gone 30 yards backwards. It would have been more like 45 or 50 yards backwards but the last 3 penalties were only able to back them up half the distance to the goal line.

[hrcarrier]

This should be a very interesting game, I might be coming to this one. I believe either team can win. I think I’m going to take Covington Catholic closely with being in Park Hills. Good luck to both teams in what should be a great football game.

[Hungover_in_Andover]

That Blue Tornado offense is potent. 35-21 PT.