How Long Will The Recession/Depression Last?

[John Anthony]

Tomorrow is a big day.

[John Anthony]

Stocks opening green is a big deal, considering the new jobless claims hitting a record high. Employers and companies are using it as a scoreboard. We’re not out of the woods but this is really good news, so far.

[rjs4470]

Stocks opening green is a big deal, considering the new jobless claims hitting a record high. Employers and companies are using it as a scoreboard. We’re not out of the woods but this is really good news, so far.

 

The stimulus package I'm sure has a lot to do with it, as there is still negative news on the virus front with the issues in NY, and the growing issue in NOLA, which is starting to look like another area that is going to be hit really hard. These next two to 3 weeks will be big. If things can stabilize, we might start to see growth accelerate. I've been staying in the market, making my normal weekly small buys.

[John Anthony]

The stimulus package I'm sure has a lot to do with it, as there is still negative news on the virus front with the issues in NY, and the growing issue in NOLA, which is starting to look like another area that is going to be hit really hard. These next two to 3 weeks will be big. If things can stabilize, we might start to see growth accelerate. I've been staying in the market, making my normal weekly small buys.

 

It definitely helped. Had the stocks sunk today, employers would probably react by tightening even more to preserve money.

[PurplePride92]

The fear about the economy and what will happen makes it easier to see why slavery so easily accepted. Slavery was the economy in those days.

 

Different physical characteristics these days but the American business model is structured from slavery and the mentality of saving the economy regardless of the people harmed is evident in 2020.

 

In 2020 we are slaves to the economy.

[nkypete]

The fear about the economy and what will happen makes it easier to see why slavery so easily accepted. Slavery was the economy in those days.

 

Different physical characteristics these days but the American business model is structured from slavery and the mentality of saving the economy regardless of the people harmed is evident in 2020.

 

In 2020 we are slaves to the economy.

 

This post made me think hard. It is almost worthy of its own thread if we could all have a reasonable conversation within the terms of service. Yes, we are all slaves to a lot of things, economy included (regardless of gender, race, status, age, etc.). So true.

[Bluegrasscard]

I found out about a lot people who are no without jobs or are idled indefinitely this weekend. We knew it was coming. But it seems the economic impact will be fast and deep.

 

Some lost two jobs in one week. Most are young people.

[swamprat]

The Mellow Mushroom near my home announced they were closing for good today. It's been there for the last 15 years. It's a niche business, not your everyday pizza place. I suspect more of the same to come.

[Voice of Reason]

By June 30, unemployment rate will be less than 4%.

 

Nearly every job, yes. This is not going to last past early May. The aid package will keep companies and employees afloat, poised and waiting for the bounce back. That gives everyone two months to get back up and running. I think the shutdowns are keeping a handle on things and testing will ramp up soon to help us. I prefer being optimistic.

 

OK, as this continues on, I admit I was overly optimistic.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Voice of Reason

[John Anthony]

OK, as this continues on, I admit I was overly optimistic.

 

We wish you were right. Q2 will be flat out ugly.

[Voice of Reason]

We wish you were right. Q2 will be flat out ugly.

 

Yes, ugly on all fronts. The only thing that can help is a much improved testing program (or, thinking optimistically again, some treatment that works) and back to work for at least some of the economy.

[rjs4470]

We wish you were right. Q2 will be flat out ugly.

 

We are looking at possible 30% unemployment, with the entertainment, restaurant, and travel related industries possibly destroyed. Think about Las Vegas for example. That whole economy depends on travel and the casinos. The stimulus is going to just be enough to get through April/early May (assuming it lands in 3 weeks like they are promising). People are going to be right back in the hole 30-45 days later. It's pretty clear this isn't resolving by the end of this month.

[John Anthony]

We are looking at possible 30% unemployment, with the entertainment, restaurant, and travel related industries possibly destroyed. Think about Las Vegas for example. That whole economy depends on travel and the casinos. The stimulus is going to just be enough to get through April/early May (assuming it lands in 3 weeks like they are promising). People are going to be right back in the hole 30-45 days later. It's pretty clear this isn't resolving by the end of this month.

 

We’re gonna need 2 rounds of aid at this pace. They’ll do it if they have too.

[Bluegrasscard]

We’re gonna need 2 rounds of aid at this pace. They’ll do it if they have too.

 

I have started writing those in office to ask - where is the plan for economic recovery? The hole is very deep and has hit some people very hard already. And the switch will not flip the day they say "go back to work". So for now, trying to at least voice grass roots concern that efforts on the economic need to get started if they have not. The tone was that "there will be a need to pivot from one unprecedented crisis to another unprecedented crisis without taking a break."

[John Anthony]

I have started writing those in office to ask - where is the plan for economic recovery? The hole is very deep and has hit some people very hard already. And the switch will not flip the day they say "go back to work". So for now, trying to at least voice grass roots concern that efforts on the economic need to get started if they have not. The tone was that "there will be a need to pivot from one unprecedented crisis to another unprecedented crisis without taking a break."

 

All strong points. There’s always more room to print debt, that’s what their gonna do to get us out of this mess. This is a once in a century event, quite possibly.