These programs will help. But aren't a lot of those programs based upon keeping a full work staff up and going? When you are told to shut down there is no business to conduct.

 

As long as they maintain work staff the part of loans used for payroll and overhead will be forgiven.

As long as they maintain work staff the part of loans used for payroll and overhead will be forgiven.

 

Right, that is how I understood it. I am just saying a lot of businesses are unable to keep the doors open and staff working because they are in service, wholesale, or retail industries (eg.).

Right, that is how I understood it. I am just saying a lot of businesses are unable to keep the doors open and staff working because they are in service, wholesale, or retail industries (eg.).

 

The point of loan is to cover those expenses even if the doors are closed.

The point of loan is to cover those expenses even if the doors are closed.

 

In a lot of ways this is a good thing. To give credit, they are processing these loans quickly. My company submitted an application on Friday, and it was approved by late Monday morning. The problem is going to be is if this stretches into summer, and those loans run out. Covering payroll is great, but if you can't get the business ramped back up quickly, the money will run out by the end of June.

The point of loan is to cover those expenses even if the doors are closed.

But employees have to be working, right? You can't get a loan can you if you are not conducting work? If I own a retail store or barber shop and local orders prohibit us from working, I would not be eligible, correct?

But employees have to be working, right? You can't get a loan can you if you are not conducting work? If I own a retail store or barber shop and local orders prohibit us from working, I would not be eligible, correct?

 

That's not how I understood it. You just have to keep your employees and pay them is the way I interpreted it.

That's not how I understood it. You just have to keep your employees and pay them is the way I interpreted it.

 

Correct. Here are the details from the PPE fact sheet.

 

The loan amounts will be forgiven as long as:

 The loan proceeds are used to cover payroll costs, and most mortgage interest, rent, and

utility costs over the 8 week period after the loan is made; and

 Employee and compensation levels are maintained.

Payroll costs are capped at $100,000 on an annualized basis for each employee. Due to likely

high subscription, it is anticipated that not more than 25% of the forgiven amount may be for

non-payroll costs.

Loan payments will be deferred for 6 months

New Jersey is looking for COBOL programmers for their UI system, that is under stress. It went from 9,600 to 116,000 to 206,000 claims per week since March 14th. While this one is publicized, a lot of states UI systems will have challenges since most are very old and still on non-cloud environments or even old limited capacity mainframes.

UK Healthcare and Baptist Health announced furloughs earlier today in Lexington.

I still think the market is being artificially inflated, well it’s clear that it is. Will it hold long enough for a medical breakthrough, or will fundamentals come home to roost?

I still think the market is being artificially inflated, well it’s clear that it is. Will it hold long enough for a medical breakthrough, or will fundamentals come home to roost?

 

I was coming to ask about this. We have 16M people on unemployment but the Dow had a real good day yesterday, correct? Seems backwards but as long as the Dow is doing good things are fine, right? Our billionaire owners still have their billions, correct?

I was coming to ask about this. We have 16M people on unemployment but the Dow had a real good day yesterday, correct? Seems backwards but as long as the Dow is doing good things are fine, right? Our billionaire owners still have their billions, correct?

 

Essentially it comes down to the fact that for as long as we continue to print insane amounts of cash, the stocks will stay up in the short term. It’s called a bull trap, but if science catches up it will end up being a bridge. Hyperinflation is a concern though.

The Dow is at the same number right now roughly, as it was a year ago. Except a year ago we didn’t have the country shutdown. I’m being very careful right now, what’s everyone else doing?

The Dow is at the same number right now roughly, as it was a year ago. Except a year ago we didn’t have the country shutdown. I’m being very careful right now, what’s everyone else doing?

 

I’m not doing anything any differently. I’m continuing to make small, regular weekly purchases in the market at the same rate I was before this all started. I’ve been doing it this way for nearly over 20 years (since about 1998), and dollar cost averaging has been good to me. I’ve got 10-12 years til retirement, so I should have time to recoup my losses. I haven’t made any real portfolio changes as I still believe in all my investments. Even though I took a salary cut and will take a hit on commission in May, I started a second job last week that more replaces what I lost. Plus with not eating out, and having no social life for the last 30 days, I’m really coming out ahead, so I am putting more cash away. I do Own stock in one company that is involved in vaccines that has gone up 5x in value since this started, which has been very volatile in the time prior to this crisis, so I will likely dump my position in that to lock in some profits.

I’m not doing anything any differently. I’m continuing to make small, regular weekly purchases in the market at the same rate I was before this all started. I’ve been doing it this way for nearly over 20 years (since about 1998), and dollar cost averaging has been good to me. I’ve got 10-12 years til retirement, so I should have time to recoup my losses. I haven’t made any real portfolio changes as I still believe in all my investments. Even though I took a salary cut and will take a hit on commission in May, I started a second job last week that more replaces what I lost. Plus with not eating out, and having no social life for the last 30 days, I’m really coming out ahead, so I am putting more cash away. I do Own stock in one company that is involved in vaccines that has gone up 5x in value since this started, which has been very volatile in the time prior to this crisis, so I will likely dump my position in that to lock in some profits.

 

You’re a seasoned investor I can tell. My only fear is going back down to 18,000. I think we had a massive over reaction on the first sell off, and now we have somewhat of a massive over correction on the bounce back. I think the true number is closer to 21,000, I’m just hoping we don’t see a double bottom, but like you said it’s a long term game.