kyvince

Pretty impressive record. I wish you did one for the stock market, and my portfolio would look a whole lot better. I understand that it wasn't you that ranked Dixie that high, I just question those that did. I believe Pike will play tonight, and I believe they will win by double digits. My only question was in relation to some of the other schools. It seems like John Hardin and Chritian County are being underestimated. I also question why Johnson Central is rated so low. Perhaps its because no one from Lexington and Louisville sees them play.

What was the pure win loss record of this method last year? It always looks 90% correct with a 10% "How is that possible?" scenario. That's what makes it so interesting. This year the puzzling one to me is the ultra-high ranking of Dixie. I have a hard time believing they should be rated ahead of John Hardin, Christian County and Johnson Central. Even though they already lost to CovCath, I can see some of the reasoning why they would be rated higher based on common opponents scores. Thanks for the work it makes playoff time even more fun!

Not sure what the parameters were for the simulation, but for the most part the winners and loser look reasonable. However the scores for some of the teams I am familiar with do surprise me. I will be shocked if CovCath and Dixie only score 24 and 23 points respectively in the opening round games. I think the margin of victory is legitimate, but I would think both of those teams offenses would put up more points. Conversely I would expect both of those teams defenses to give up more points. In the 2nd round if CovCath can hold Johnson Central to 22 points, I think you will see a CovCath return visit to Ft. Thomas. The other 2nd round game I question is the BG vs Christian County game. I wil be shocked if there isn't BG vs Warren Central rematch in round 3.

I believe the Hays kid has a very good chance of playing a good deal of varsity next year. If nothing else I could see him being their return guy. His open field running skills are quite impressive. I could also see the True and Schweitzer kid seeing extensive playing time next year. Other than a cup of coffee appearence I would be surprised to see many of the freshman seeing playing time with the varsity this year. Highlands is still very deep with quality players. I would be surprised to see Coach Mueller play Freshman over the current Soph's and Juniors.

LaMont McMurray is the real deal. He is probably one of the top 2 backs that CovCath faced all year, and they faced some pretty good ones. He has a unique blend of speed and power that makes him hard to stop. Add in Beach to get the tough yards, and you have pretty good combination.

He played the last one, so I don't know why he wouldn't play in this one.

The key is how does Highlands React to last nights outcome. I believe that Highlands confidence and swagger has been a big reason they have the success that they do. If they can regain that swagger add in the determination to never taste the bitter defeat pill again, and the could be starting another long winning streak. Or The next time they are challenged in a game (either in 2 or 3 weeks) does self doubt (something they have never had recently) creep in. Causing players to try to do too much, or to play tight, in the key moments of a game. I expect the former, I hope for the latter!

Rumor has it that 4 or 5 of the top players are considering transferring to a city school in Campbell County ! Ok I was just kidding... Congratulations to Scott, I hope this starts something special for folks in Taylor Mill!

If the Colonels are able to play into the 3rd week of the playoff's, then that is a sure sign that if not back they're getting close. For them to play in Ft. Thomas again this year means they have beaten a very talented Johnson Central team. The 5 -4 record with the type of loss that Ryle was, and the loss to NCC definitely says that they were not back to the levels expected in Park Hills. However, if they are able to play Highlands again, no matter the outcome, it says that real progress has been made.

I think this is not going to be pretty for the Mustangs. I think Coach KoZ calls of the dogs early, but with C Fuller running, and Jasper and K Fuller catching everything Jerry throws I see some big numbers for the HC offense in the 1st half. I don't think it will be a running clock, but it could be close.

I think the key to this game will be the presence or lack there of Mr. Sullivan. If he is unable to go in this game, I would see Ryle have a good deal of success running the football. If Mr. Sullivan is there and is healthy I think Ryle will be forced to throw more. Not something they are very good at.

I thought NewCath playing in the GCL had to do with not being elibible for the NKAC championship in the early 60's. For NewCath to play for a League title I think they decided to play in the GCL. They were competitive for the 1st 2 or 3 years. But as Moeller began to emerge, NewCath began to fight Mcknick,La Salle and Purcell for the 2nd tier of the GCL. If you look at their records wins against Moeller, Elder and Roger Bacon are few and far between (if any ) I don't believe they have ever beaten Moeller.

No doubt Christian is having a great Senior season. He has been the perfect compliment to Cubby.

After watching the Covcath vs Dixie game, I am again convinced that Connelly if not the best is definitely top 2 in NKY. I haven't seen enough of the young man from Holmes Mr. Peterson, but I have seen a lot of the top ones listed. The only team that has kept Connelly in check is Covcath themselves. In every game they have attempted to throw to him 10 or more times he has been dominate. I felt bad for the Dixie corners who were left to guard him 1 on 1, they just couldn't handle is athleticism.

The stat that I believe is the difference in the game is the starting point of each teams drive. That along with return yards were a big difference in this game. My guess is that CovCath's starting field position was probably 20 -25 yards better than Dixie's. Bruns had the one huge return when Talkers (the kicker) made a touchdown saving tackle on, other than that Dixie started at the 20, with the exception of the fumbled kick off that caused them to start at the 10. If you multiple those 20 yard by the 6 kickoff's you have 120 yard advantage in field position. My hats off to Evan Talkers for having such great impact on the game. This kid is quite the athlete, I would not be at all surprised to see him continue his football career beyond the HS level.

I believe the championship game is tentatively scheduled for Saturday night at 7:00pm at HHS. It would be a great atmosphere for kids, and nice way to finish of the 2010 Frosh season.

Absolutely not saying Ryle will beat Highlands. The reality is that Ryle is a bad match up for CovCath. Ryle is a big strong power running football team. CovCath has problems with pure power running teams. Highlands while more athletic overall than Ryle, is not a pure power running team. They are a very good running team, but their offense is based more on getting good blocking angles and getting the OL to the 2nd level. Throw in a much better passing game, and I think Highlands is a better offensive and overall team. However, the MATCHUP against CovCath is not as bad for the Colonels. Ryle came out in the first game and physically man handled the front 7 of CovCath. Add in the fact the offense was non-existent at that point in the season, and you have the outcome it was. Let's not forget that CovCath stopped Ryle on 4 of the first 5 drives in the first half. However Ryle had 8 or 9 possesions in the 1st half and as many in the 2nd half. CovCath's defense simply wore down. Highlands had 4 offensive posessions in the first half against CovCath, and a similar number in the 2nd half. The point of my post was not to compare Highlands to Ryle in any way. It was to state that neither Ryle nor CovCath are the same teams that took the field back in August. I still think CovCath would have trouble stopping Ryle's power running game, however I also think that CovCath's offense would now have more success throwing and running against Ryle. As I ramble here, the intent was to caution people from simply comparing scores and to look at other factors when considering who is better than who.

A few things about the Ryle v Covcath game. 1) It was played the score was 61-7, no arguing that Ryle was the far superior team that night. 2) Ryle is not the same team they were back then because of injuries. 3) CovCath is not the same team they were back then because of experience. Their offense is miles further ahead than they were back then, and their defense has learned to adjust to some of their weaknesses 4) If they played again Ryle would still come out on top, probably more like a 35 -17, or 42-21 type of game. All conjecture I know, but thats the reason BGP exists.

Defensively this week will be the healthiest that CovCath has been all year. Two starters/major contributors did not play in the Highlands game, who will be back this week. This game has always been the must win game. Even had CovCath beaten Highlands this is the game they had to win to be better than the 3 seed. Had they beat Highlands and lost to Dixie they would have ended up a 3 seed. If they win this week they will secure a 2 seed. I expect a high scoring afair just like the last 2 meetings. However, I also predicted that Conner vs Campbell would be a shoot out as well. So if I am as accurate on this game it will end up being a 17 -14 type of game. I predict a Covcath victory on the strength of Evan Talkers leg.

I have heard the rumor, but those type of rumors seem to follow this individual. I don't think it will have any impact on the game.

2 FG's and the Colonels had 3 int's and a blocked punt as well. If they catch the pass right before the end of the half, then the end of the game you are going for a tying FG. That would have changed everything. As far as injuries, I do think that Compton going out was a big reason HHS had trouble running the ball. However CovCath had 2 starting LB's and a starting DB, starting Punter and the #2 reciever all miss the game. I just hope CovCath can beat Dixie, win the opening round of the playoff's, shock the JC team and get another shot at the Bluebirds.

Coming South ont 27, it's right after you lose cell phone coverage, just when 700 WLW starts to fade out and when the pick up to car ratio runs about 6 to 1! Just Kidding.... Sharp is beatiful school and the stadium is a very nice place to watch a game. Seriously if you are heading south on 27 it is on the right hand side, and almost impossible to miss. Coach Brown is good people, I wish him nothing but success!

I think that Highlands will only play in the championship game. I am not sure of the other schools records, but I believe heading into this week both CovCath and Campbell County had 1 loss in the large school division. I know CovCath still must play SK, not sure who Campbell has left on their schedule. If both CovCath and Campbell win out, they would end tied for 2nd with 1 loss a piece. If they both lose next week, then it might be a 3 way tie for 2nd. If there is a two way tie for 2nd, I believe they are considering playing an elimination game between Campbell and CovCath. If there is a 3 way tie, I have no idea what the tie breaker would be.

In my opinion playing at Highlands will help you significantly getting a chance to play NAIA, DII and the better DIII programs. DI coaches are (in general) looking at very specific physical attributes when recruiting for their schools. Every once in a while they will see a kid play who doesn't fit those requirements and fall in love with their tenacity or their style of play. However, for the most part 6'0" 215 d-lineman playing at Highlands or anywhere else for that matter do not get offered DI schollys. Highlands and their success will get an NAIA/DII school to take a look, it's not going to make much of difference to a DI coach. No offense to SK or Boone, but neither would be considered a Traditional Powerhouse as far as the state is concerned, but it didn't stop a whole bunch of DI schools to offer Simpson and Alexander respectively.

I don't think HC can stop NewCath's running game. I just don't think they have the horses up front (no pun intended). However, I do think that NewCath's weakness is their pass defense. So if NewCath has a couple of fumbles (that they lose), and if HC can get a couple quick scores, this could be game. Those however are 2 BIG IF's. I think NewCath big 45 -21.