I placed all games into the simulator at nationalsportsrankings.com and each game is based on if the teams played 25 times averaged out, here it is:

1st Round

Christian Co-43

Barren Co-6

 

Bowling Green-41

North Hopkins-9

 

Warren Central-40

Ohio Co-13

 

Owensboro-23

Grayson Co-18

 

John Hardin-37

Jeffersontown-10

 

Oldham Co-23

Doss-21

 

Anderson Co-35

Waggener-11

 

Bullitt Central-28

South Oldham-21

 

Highlands-59

Woodford Co-3

 

Montgomery Co-13

Dixie Heights-23

 

Johnson Central-42

Scott-10

 

Covington Catholic-24

Ashland Blazer-16

 

Pulaski Co-27

Perry County Central-16

 

Clay Co-32

Lincoln Co-10

 

Harlan Co-29

Mercer Co-15

 

Southwestern-31

Whitley Co-15

2nd Round

Christian Co-20

Bowling Green-19

 

Warren Central-23

Owensboro-21

 

John Hardin-36

Oldham Co-10

 

Anderson Co-18

Bullitt Central-22

 

Highlands-37

Dixie Heights-12

 

Johnson Central-22

Covington Catholic-17

 

Pulaski Co-28

Clay Co-14

 

Harlan Co-21

Southwestern-18

3rd Round

Christian Co-31

Warren Central-14

 

John Hardin-34

Bullitt Central-12

 

Highlands-31

Johnson Central-12

 

Pulaski Co-30

Harlan Co-17

 

Semis

Christian Co-24

John Hardin-14

 

Highlands-32

Pulaski Co-12

 

Finals

Christian Co-15

Highlands-21

If it plays out like that all I can say is wow. No one in 5A will be as good as I thought and if it plays out like that no one in 5A deserves to be ranked higher than Boyle or Bell County. Straight up. Not even the 5A champion.

If it plays out like that all I can say is wow. No one in 5A will be as good as I thought and if it plays out like that no one in 5A deserves to be ranked higher than Boyle or Bell County. Straight up. Not even the 5A champion.

 

?:confused:

 

Why because Boyle beat Christian Cty by 16 and it's projected that Highlands would only beat them by 6?

 

It will be interesting to see how it plays out. In the 6A projected winner thread it has SK beating Ryle, which most do not think will happen.

Not sure what the parameters were for the simulation, but for the most part the winners and loser look reasonable. However the scores for some of the teams I am familiar with do surprise me. I will be shocked if CovCath and Dixie only score 24 and 23 points respectively in the opening round games. I think the margin of victory is legitimate, but I would think both of those teams offenses would put up more points. Conversely I would expect both of those teams defenses to give up more points.

 

In the 2nd round if CovCath can hold Johnson Central to 22 points, I think you will see a CovCath return visit to Ft. Thomas.

 

The other 2nd round game I question is the BG vs Christian County game. I wil be shocked if there isn't BG vs Warren Central rematch in round 3.

The other 2nd round game I question is the BG vs Christian County game. I wil be shocked if there isn't BG vs Warren Central rematch in round 3.

 

I don't think you should be shocked if Bowling Green does lose to Christian County. The Colonels have a very good team. I do believe that Bowling Green will win, but it's not beyond the realm of thought they could lose.

?:confused:

 

Why because Boyle beat Christian Cty by 16 and it's projected that Highlands would only beat them by 6?

 

It will be interesting to see how it plays out. In the 6A projected winner thread it has SK beating Ryle, which most do not think will happen.

 

Absolutely.

 

I was at that game and it was evident early on that you were looking at two teams that were not equal. Christian County's defense stopped the Boyle County offense three times. One fumble, an int and a missed fg. Other than that Boyle County scored a touchdown on every possession save for downing the ball twice on the CC 1 yard line at the end of the game. The game was never in doubt and remained a 2-3 touchdown separation after Boyle got up 28-7. I'll also mention that we were missing key players due to injuries so it could have been worse. Some Rebel fans even thought we would lose.(traitors.........j/k......kind of)

 

Now, the key word I say is IF because I would think that Highlands is more than 6 points better than CC. IF they aren't then, yes, right or wrong I will begin to question the quality of 5A football. Based off of what I saw from CC I think that would be reasonable on my part.

I don't think you should be shocked if Bowling Green does lose to Christian County. The Colonels have a very good team. I do believe that Bowling Green will win, but it's not beyond the realm of thought they could lose.

 

I don't think it will be a shock of BG or Christian wins. I also don't think it will be a shock as to who wins between OHS (provided they get by Grayson) and Warren Central. Owensboro seems to be the forgotten player in all this. I know they lost Prince, but defensively they are good enough to win games against anyone and have athletes to match anyone in region 1.

I don't think it will be a shock of BG or Christian wins. I also don't think it will be a shock as to who wins between OHS (provided they get by Grayson) and Warren Central. Owensboro seems to be the forgotten player in all this. I know they lost Prince, but defensively they are good enough to win games against anyone and have athletes to match anyone in region 1.

 

Believe me, I have not penciled Warren Central into the region finals. Either Owensboro or Grayson County will be a challenge for Warren Central. Each week is another week for Owensboro to figure out how to play offensively without Prince.

That (potential) Bowling Green/Christian County match-up looks really interesting.