Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2010 postseason.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a postseason version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now, most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 5A entirely and the HRS predictions:

 

 

111.50 Highlands

103.30 Bowling Green

97.95 Dixie Heights

97.75 Christian County

97.75 John Hardin

95.10 Covington Catholic

94.05 Warren Central

93.55 Johnson Central

86.70 Pulaski County

84.65 Owensboro

81.80 Harlan County

81.50 Ashland Blazer

81.15 Grayson County

79.80 Oldham County

78.55 Madisonville-North Hopkins

74.80 Southwestern

74.80 Whitley County

73.80 Jeffersontown

73.60 Anderson County

73.05 Clay County

69.30 South Oldham

68.10 Doss

65.20 Montgomery County

63.85 Bullitt Central

62.50 Perry County Central

59.10 Scott

57.40 Lincoln County

57.35 Mercer County

54.70 Woodford County

49.50 Barren County

45.70 Ohio County

37.20 Waggener

 

 

 

Region One

(4) Barren County at (1) Christian County – CC by 48.25

(3) Madisonville at (2) Bowling Green – BG by 30.75

(4) Ohio County at (1) Warren Central – WC by 54.35

(3) Grayson County at (2) Owensboro – OHS by 9.5

Region Two

(4) Jeffersontown at (1) John Hardin – JH by 29.95

(3) Doss at (2) Oldham County – OC by 17.7

(4) Waggener at (1) Anderson County – AC by 42.4

(3) South Oldham at (2) Bullitt Central – BC by 0.55

Region Three

(4) Woodford County at (1) Highlands – HHS by 62.8

(3) Dixie Heights at (2) Montgomery County – DH by 26.75

(4) Scott at (1) Johnson Central – JC by 40.45

(3) Ashland Blazer at (2) Covington Catholic – CCH by 19.6

Region Four

(4) Perry County Central at (1) Pulaski County – Pulaski by 30.2

(3) Lincoln County at (2) Clay County – CC by 21.65

(4) Mercer County at (1) Harlan County – HC by 30.45

(3) Whitley Co. at (2) Southwestern – SW by 6

Edited November 2, 201015 yr by mcpapa

ttt

Thanks for putting the time and effort in to do this statman. I look forward to these every year.

ttt

What was the pure win loss record of this method last year?

 

It always looks 90% correct with a 10% "How is that possible?" scenario. That's what makes it so interesting. This year the puzzling one to me is the ultra-high ranking of Dixie. I have a hard time believing they should be rated ahead of John Hardin, Christian County and Johnson Central. Even though they already lost to CovCath, I can see some of the reasoning why they would be rated higher based on common opponents scores.

 

Thanks for the work it makes playoff time even more fun!

kyvince, here is what I found through looking at last year's results and posted in this year's Class 1A predictions...and as far as Dixie Heights being ranked so high, it is just cause the two power ratings I use have them that high. Knowing that Pike isn't going to be playing, I think Montgomery County could make it a lot closer than the prediction if not even beat them.

 

 

 

Here is what I could come up with from last year...the predictions were 153-26 from the first round until the state semifinals...I don't do the state finals because I can never find an updated version of either the Cantrall Rating or the Litkenhous Rating or both. It was something I decided the first year I did the ratings so I've continued it due to the same reason every year for the finals.

 

 

2009 semifinals (10-2)

1A – two wins

2A – two wins (one within a touchdown of prediction)

3A – one win, one loss

4A – two wins (both within a touchdown of prediction)

5A – one win, one loss (Highlands predicted to win by 40.95 and won by 40)

6A – two wins (both within a touchdown of prediction)

 

2009 region finals (19-5)

1A – 4-0 (1 within a touchdown)

2A – 3-1 (3 within a touchdown)

3A – 3-1

4A – 4-0 (all within a touchdown, Boyle Co. predicted to beat LexCath by 14.5 and won by 14)

5A – 3-1 (2 within a touchdown, John Hardin predicted to win by 21.85 and won by 22, & one loss was predicted to be a one point win by the team that eventually lost)

6A – 2-2 (one within a touchdown & one loss was predicted to be a one point win for the team that eventually lost)

 

2009 second round (41-7)

1A – 6-2 (3 within a touchdown & one of the loss was predicted to be a one point win by the team that eventually lost)

2A – 8-0 (4 within a touchdown, Murray predicted to beat Hancock County by 36.05 and won by 36, NewCath predicted to beat CAL by 20.2 and won by 20, & Cordin predicted to beat Shelby Valley by 17.95 and won by 17)

3A – 5-3 (only one within a touchdown)

4A – 8-0 (three within a touchdown)

5A – 7-1 (two within a touchdown & Christian Co. predicted to beat Warren Central by 6.05 and won by 6)

6A – 7-1 (5 within a touchdown & one loss had Bryan Station predicted to beat Henry Clay by one BUT Henry Clay actually won by one)

 

2009 first round (83-12)

1A – 15-1 (6 within a touchdown)

2A – 16-0 (7 within a touchdown & Danville predicted to beat Glasgow by 13.35 and won by 14)

3A – 14-2 (5 within a touchdown, Union Co. predicted to beat Adair Co. by 41.06 and won by 41, & Breathitt Co. predicted to beat Wayne Co. by 25.35 and win by 26)

4A – 11-4 (5 within a touchdown)

5A – 12-4 (3 within a touchdown and Owensboro predicted to beat Grayson Co. by 27.8 and won by 28)

6A – 15-1 (5 within a touchdown, Henderson Co. predicted to beat Central Hardin by 14.2 and won by 14, & duPont Manual predicted to beat Conner by 10.2 and won by 11)

Pretty impressive record. I wish you did one for the stock market, and my portfolio would look a whole lot better.

 

I understand that it wasn't you that ranked Dixie that high, I just question those that did. I believe Pike will play tonight, and I believe they will win by double digits. My only question was in relation to some of the other schools. It seems like John Hardin and Chritian County are being underestimated. I also question why Johnson Central is rated so low. Perhaps its because no one from Lexington and Louisville sees them play.

kyvince, here is what I found through looking at last year's results and posted in this year's Class 1A predictions...and as far as Dixie Heights being ranked so high, it is just cause the two power ratings I use have them that high. Knowing that Pike isn't going to be playing, I think Montgomery County could make it a lot closer than the prediction if not even beat them.

 

No word from any source that Pike isn't playing. He was a beast last weekend.