1st call Feb. 3-4

[nWo]

This is going to be a tough one to call. I believe it is going to be more of an ice storm for most of Kentucky than snow. Most of the snow at this time will be confined from around I-64 northward. First, let's look at the 18z run from the GFS. The period covered from both models is 1 am EST/ 12 am central Thursday to 4 pm EST/3 pm central Friday.

The GFS is coming in with more snow and a further south track than the NAM.

 

I don't think the NAM is getting a good read on this storm. It has it much further north with the heaviest ice accumulations close to the Ohio River and no snow for Kentucky. It may come back with a more southerly track in subsequent runs. We'll just have to wait and see.

 

 

Now let us take a look at what each model is showing for possible accumulation totals. First the GFS

 

Snow

 

Ice accumulation

 

 

NAM

 

 

 

 

Here is what I'm thinking right now. For snow 1-4 inches from around I-64 northward to around a line from around Warsaw to Crittenden. North of that line to the north of Cincinnati 4-8". I think the most ice accumulations will be from around I-southward. My thinking is from .25 to .65 of an inch of icing will be possible.  I fully expect by tomorrow morning that most of the Winter Storm Watch area will be upgraded to with a Winter or Ice Storm warning. 

 

Everyone should be prepared as soon as possible for possible power outages and nearly impossible driving conditions. The Kentucky State Police are already asking people if they don't have to don't drive Thursday morning and especially on Friday.

 

Check back for updates tomorrow.

[nWo]

New WSSI (Winter Storm Severity Index) first from Wednesday to Thursday.

 

 

From Thursday to Friday

 

 

 

[Irish Cat]

For the sake of comparison, do you remember about how much ice areas in western kentucky got with the January 2009 ice storm? 

[nWo]

3 hours ago, Irish Cat said:

For the sake of comparison, do you remember about how much ice areas in western kentucky got with the January 2009 ice storm? 

Western Kentucky got about 1.2 to 2 inches of ice accumulations.

[Kentucky Windage]

Hearing that they are expecting the change over from rain to snow to happen much earlier than expected. Any validity to this?

[TheDeuce]

27 minutes ago, Kentucky Windage said:

Hearing that they are expecting the change over from rain to snow to happen much earlier than expected. Any validity to this?

It has slowly been trending that way from everything I've been seeing too. 

[Randy Parker]

29 minutes ago, Kentucky Windage said:

Hearing that they are expecting the change over from rain to snow to happen much earlier than expected. Any validity to this?

 

1 minute ago, TheDeuce said:

It has slowly been trending that way from everything I've been seeing too. 

How much earlier?

[TheDeuce]

1 minute ago, Randy Parker said:

 

How much earlier?

The Ice Storm Warning goes into effect at 7am tomorrow, and some things I've seen indicate it will start before that. 

[theguru]

For NKY according to weather.com the freezing rain will start about 7am on 2/3 and then a wintry mix/snow around 4 to 5pm on 2/3.  I think that has been pretty consistent. 

[nWo]

I just checked the latest 12z GFS run. It has freezing rain starting to accumulate in the Cincinnati/NKY area about 4 am EST Thursday.

[nWo]

I forgot to add that it has the snow between 4-7 pm EST. Still calling for several inches of snow.

[theguru]

50 minutes ago, theguru said:

For NKY according to weather.com the freezing rain will start about 7am on 2/3 and then a wintry mix/snow around 4 to 5pm on 2/3.  I think that has been pretty consistent. 

Weather.com just updated their hourly forecast and is now calling for the wintery mix to start at 11am on 2/3 with the snow starting at 5pm.

[theguru]

I went to Kroger and the Liquor Store today, I am all set for several days. 

[sportsfan41]

2 hours ago, theguru said:

I went to Kroger and the Liquor Store today, I am all set for several days. 

Trying to leave the office now because I also need to make a stop at both and don’t want to get stuck in the madness that is the after work crowd. 

[theguru]

1 minute ago, sportsfan41 said:

Trying to leave the office now because I also need to make a stop at both and don’t want to get stuck in the madness that is the after work crowd. 

Right.  You have to time your errands and sometime after lunch and before dinner is normally a good time.