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Are D1 prospects from Kentucky less likely to commit to out of state programs than in-state?

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...and does that have an impact on which college programs look to recruit Kentucky high school athletes?

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I think more go out of state. Have many out of state colleges recruit kids in Louisville so I don’t think it has impact. If you are rated by recruiting service they are going to recruit you if you fit their needs.

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I think Kentucky kids get plenty of out of state attention. That being said, I have heard and been told first hand that Kentucky kids stay home more often than not, and that probably does affect recruiting of mid/low D1 impact kids. All in all, the measure-sables and grades win out IMO. 

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Kids are staying in Kentucky more now because UK and UL are much better at football than they have been in years past.  I also believe that the state of Kentucky is producing more D1 talent in the last 10 years than ever before.  There are still several kids who get overlooked by the 2 Power 5 schools in this state and a few still go somewhere outside of the state of Kentucky but they have been better signing in state talent.  WKU under Brohm had a roster made up of a lot of Kentucky kids who had been over looked by UK and UL and they were pretty dang good.  I think that may have opened some eyes to the in state talent.

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It seems like Kentucky is picking up a lot of the best Kentucky kids recently when in years past the top 3 or 4 always went out of state.

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2021

Jager Burton (Frederick Douglass)
- Alabama, Cincinnati, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Kentucky, Louisville, Marshall, Michigan State, Missouri, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, Purdue, Tennessee, Texas, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Virginia Tech

Dekel Crowdus (Frederick Douglass) - Auburn, Baylor, Cincinnati, Duke, Florida State, Georgia State, Kentucky, Louisville, Marshall, Michigan, Mississippi, Mississippi State,  Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington State, West Virginia, Western Michigan

Tristan Cox (Pulaski County) - Cincinnati, Kentucky, Louisville, Marshall, Purdue

Jordan Dingle (Bowling Green) - Appalachian State, Arkansas, Army, Georgia Tech, Kent State, Kentucky, Louisville, Maryland, Missouri, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn, Pitt, Purdue, Rutgers, South Carolina, Toledo, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Western Kentucky, Yale

Jantzen Dunn (South Warren) - Alabama, Baylor, Boston College, Cincinnati, Eastern Kentucky, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Illinois State, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisville, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Penn State, Purdue, Southern California, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Western Kentucky

Jordan Lovell (North Hardin) - Ball State, Boston College, Cincinnati, Eastern Kentucky, Georgia State, Georgia Tech, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, Purdue, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Western Kentucky

Kaiya Sheron (Somerset) - Kentucky, Marshall, West Virginia

La'Vell Wright (North Hardin) - Boston College, Eastern Kentucky, Georgia State, Indiana, Kentucky, Kent State, Louisville, Maryland, Missouri, Northwestern, Purdue, Tennessee, Toledo, UAB, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Wake Forest, West Virginia

2022

Grant Bingham (Johnson Central) - Arkansas, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, Louisville, Marshall, Miami (FL), Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Purdue, South Carolina, Stanford, TCU, Toledo, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Western Michigan

Kiyaunta Goodwin (Charlestown, IN - previously Lou Holy Cross, Ballard) - Alabama, Arizona State, Arkansas, Auburn, Cincinnati, Colorado, Duke, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Jackson State, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Marshall, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Ohio State, Oregon, Oregon State, Penn State, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UNLV, USC, Utah, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, Western Kentucky

Treyveon Longmire (Corbin) - Arkansas, Boston College, Cincinnati, Florida State, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan, Michigan State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Purdue, Texas Christian, Tennessee, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Western Michigan

Gavin Wimsatt (Owensboro) - Cincinnati, Eastern Kentucky, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Mississippi, Missouri, Murray State, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oregon, Rutgers, Texas Christian, Vanderbilt, West Virginia

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I think of Walter Parks, Jacob Lacey and Gavin Wimsatt as very high level players that didn't commit to UK.  I'd say overall Stoops and company have done a pretty good job though.

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The post Brohm era at WKU has seen recruiting efforts inside of KY slow down significantly.  Therefore, if a player is not offered by UK or UL, and has FBS (Group of 5) offers, they are almost certain to go out of state.  As time elapses, it will be interesting to see how the NCAA one-time transfer rule impacts the recruiting of "Group of 5 and below" level recruits.  It is difficult to see this rule as being a positive one for HS players working for a spot in Division I football. 

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19 minutes ago, Bear3 said:

It is difficult to see this rule as being a positive one for HS players working for a spot in Division I football. 

The only way I see it affecting HS players is immediate playing time. Schools will still have to fill recruiting classes. 

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